Hello to all…

..An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible late this afternoon and evening across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with strong to damaging winds, and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threat and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. The urban and poor drainage flood risk could occur in a few localized areas across Southern New England depending on where any thunderstorms with heavy rainfall develop and whether they train over the same area and this will be monitored as the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of New England in a marginal risk for heavy rainfall/flash flood potential..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the situation. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton would be possible if the threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall increases. This will be the only message on this potential unless time allows for a shortened coordination message and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated or a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook and Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..After the flash flooding in portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southern and Eastern Connecticut, warm and humid conditions exist over Southern New England with the warm front having pushed through, this will set the stage for the potential for severe weather late this Wednesday afternoon and evening in Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued to place much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly river and stream and flash flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. An Isolated tornado is a secondary threat in Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 400 PM Wednesday Afternoon to monitor the severe weather potential..

Flash flooding and significant rainfall amounts occurred in portions of Southern New England with amounts over 4.5″ in scattered locations. Information on the heavy rainfall and flooding/flash flooding can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809261305.nous41.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260846.nous41.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260048.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260134.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260208.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Team Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/reports_9_25_18-1.txt

The region has now moved into the warm sector with warm and humid conditions over the region. A strong cold front will move through Southern New England this evening. While the timing is a bit later than peak heating, there are very strong winds aloft and strong lifting and triggering with the cold front. This will set the stage for the potential of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to swing through Southern New England with interior Southern New England as the main threat area particularly from Worcester County Massachusetts and west and across Northern Connecticut. Areas to the east will have the potential for severe weather as well but it will be less than out west due to slightly weaker wind fields and the timing of the cold front with lower instability levels.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 400 PM to monitor the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operation mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Hello to all…

..Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 5 AM Tuesday through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in the morning..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. Not much change to the current forecast but will be monitoring a bit more closely any thunderstorms and severe weather potential given what occurred in Virginia Monday Afternoon into early evening. Again, we do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to remain aware of the low to very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

1.) The position of the heaviest rainfall is still not totally known and will be refined in future forecasts.
2.) The threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm with a damaging wind or small tornado risk will be contingent on the amount of instability that can develop.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning and ongoing weather early Tuesday Morning will determine whether or not it will be a full message or a shortened coordination message. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

…Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Late Tonight through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. We do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to also be aware of the very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

1.) The position of the heaviest rainfall is still not totally known and will be refined in future forecasts.
2.) The threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm with a damaging wind or small tornado risk will be contingent on the amount of instability that can develop.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..A Cold front will bring a threat of severe weather and an end to the latest round of heat and humidity today making for a nice seasonable weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning through 7 PM Thursday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across much of Southern New England with a slightly higher threat area along and south of the Mass Pike to the coastal areas today. Strong to Damaging Winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The main threat timeframe is from 2-10 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1-130 PM today for this severe weather potential..

One last day of heat and humidity ahead of a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England as a cold front swings through the region bringing more seasonable weather for this weekend. There will be sufficient heating and destabilization with marginally sufficient wind shear to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The extent of coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is a bit uncertain given the strongest wind shear is somewhat disconnected from the higher instability areas and other marginal factors associated with the cold front but there looks to be enough parameters in place for at least isolated to scattered coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. If the stronger wind shear becomes closer to the higher levels of instability in place in Southern New England and other severe weather parameters improve, that could set the stage for a more potent severe weather episode but current thinking is for more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1-130 PM today for this severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

At the Boxboro ARRL New England Division Amateur Radio Convention for Friday 9/7/18 from 1230-145 PM, we will have a rare opportunity for a live presentation from one of the key national figures in Amateur Radio Public Service. Julio Ripoll, WD4R, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator will be presenting an overview of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, as well as the operations Julio and a team of WX4NHC, MARS and other operators completed for the Haiti Earthquake in 2010. It is a rare opportunity to hear this presentation live and to meet Julio who founded operations at the National Hurricane Center in 1980 and has maintained the station at the National Hurricane Center for the last 38 years.

Also, on Friday 9/7/18, KI1U-Mike Corey, ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager, will present the ARESConnect system from 10-1130 AM and similar to what has been done in past years, SKYWARN Training will be offered from 2-430 PM.

The complete schedule of events on Friday in chronological order is listed below:
1000 AM-1130 AM: ARES Connect Presentation by KI1U-Mike Corey, ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager
1230 PM-145 PM: WX4NHC Station Overview and Haiti Earthquake Presentation, WD4R-Julio Ripoll, Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator
200-430 PM: SKYWARN Training Class (This is the full training class and will get you a Spotter ID card if a newly trained spotter or count for a renewal of your SKYWARN Training)

Anyone wishing to attend these presentations on Friday 9/7/18 can do so free of charge.

Also, at Boxboro, we will have an ARES/RACES/SKYWARN booth on Saturday 9/8/18 and Sunday 9/9/18. There will also be a SKYWARN Overview Presentation Saturday 9/8/18 from 1000-1050 AM.

There will be many other Amateur Radio related presentations at Boxboro. For a complete list of the forums, check out the following link at the boxboro.org web site:
http://www.boxboro.org/forums-and-classes/forum-schedule

Also, for anyone interested in obtaining their Amateur Radio license, there will be a technician-in-a-day course sponsored by the Cape Ann Amateur Radio Association on Saturday 9/8/18 from 9 AM-5 PM. The details on registration can be found via the following link:
http://www.boxboro.org/tech-in-a-day

We hope to see many of you at the Boxboro, ARRL New England Division Convention. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box