Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 12/29/16-Friday Morning 12/30/16 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines with isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages possible in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated pocket of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Morning for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, and Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts. Initial snowfall amounts expected in this portion of the Watch area is 4-8″ of snow with the highest amounts in the range and isolated higher amounts beyond the range up to 10″ near the New Hampshire border and the lower amounts in Northwest Connecticut depending on amount of mixed precipitation. Snowfall amount forecasts could vary as it will depend on the amount of mixed precipitation and duration and intensity of precipitation as well as the track and intensity of the storm as it rapidly intensifies near our region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region. At the coast, given warm water temperatures, precipitation is likely to be mostly rain perhaps changing to a short period of snow before ending..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England..

A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:

1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday PM 12/26/16-Tuesday AM 12/27/16 Light Icing in Interior & Strong Wind Potential in Southeast New England

Hello to all…

..Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators..
..A storm system Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning will bring light icing conditions with the possibility of slippery travel in parts of interior Massachusetts and may eventually extend into Northwest Connecticut and strong to damaging winds in interior and Coastal Southeast New England late Monday Night through Tuesday Morning. The strong wind potential could expand to other areas depending on how much of the area gets into the warmer air..
..A Freezing Rain Advisory remains in effect from 3-11 PM Monday for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and is expanded into Hartford County Connecticut for a light icing that could impact travel..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and all of Cape Cod and the Islands from Midnight to 10 AM Tuesday for sustained winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts up to and around 50 MPH likely. This may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..There is potential for a possible nor’easter Thursday into Friday Morning. It is too early to get into any specific details on this potential and any coordination messages on this storm system won’t be posted until either Tuesday Evening or Wednesday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of this storm system Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning. This will likely be the last coordination message on this storm system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Freezing Rain Advisory statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics where Icing maps have been updated..

NWS Taunton Freezing Rain Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon 12/26/16-Tuesday Morning 12/27/16 Light Icing in Interior and Strong Wind Potential in Southeast Coastal New England

Hello to all…

..Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah and a Happy Holiday season to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators..
..A storm system Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning will bring light icing conditions with the possibility of slippery travel in parts of interior Massachusetts and may eventually extend into Northwest Connecticut and also the potential for strong to damaging winds in Southeast Coastal New England late Monday Night through Tuesday Morning depending on how warm temperatures get and the ability for any convective showers and downpours to drag wind down to the surface..
..A Freezing Rain Advisory is now in effect from 3-11 PM Monday for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for a light icing that could impact travel. This advisory could be extended slightly further south and east in future forecasts..
..Strong winds across the Southeast Coastal New England area will need to be monitored for possible Wind Advisories in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the progress of this storm system Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Freezing Rain Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics where Icing maps have been updated..

NWS Taunton Freezing Rain Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Merry Christmas/Happy New Year/Happy Holidays to All SKYWARN Spotters & Amateur Radio Operators!

Hello to all..

On behalf of the entire Amateur Radio Group at WX1BOX, the Amateur Radio station for NWS Taunton Massachusetts, and the forecaster staff at NWS Taunton, we would like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Happy Holiday season. 2016 was another interesting year for weather across the region though possibly one of the biggest highlights of this year may not have had to do with a particular storm or severe weather event but the severe drought conditions that affected much of Southern New England this year resulting in water restrictions and water conservation efforts across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area. While we have had the severe drought conditions, there were also notable weather events across the NWS Taunton coverage area during this past year.

As has been the case for the last several years, many of you provided critical reports, pictures and videos that supported and resulted in the protection of life and property and timely warnings being issued based on the surface reporting and ground truth that is so critical in confirming what the radar is or is not seeing. This information was then shared with the media, local, state and federal emergency management and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that are always looking for situational awareness and disaster intelligence to gauge the level of response and recovery required for an incident. They remain extremely impressed with all the work that all of you do and they extend their appreciation. That appreciation of the weather and damage reports is highly recognized by many of the media outlets as well who thank SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators on television and over social media such as Facebook and Twitter. This mission could not be done without all of your support.

A quick synopsis of 2016 beyond the severe drought conditions that were noted is that there were several notable weather events over the past year despite the much below normal precipitation of the past year. Despite a relatively light snowfall season over the region, South Coastal Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands experienced two blizzards (Saturday January 23rd into Sunday Morning January 24th) and Monday February 8th. Each storm had wind gusts in the 65-75 MPH range along the Cape and Islands with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. A sharp cutoff in the snowfall was noted north and west of these areas with much less snowfall. During the February 8th blizzard, the stronger winds were felt inland for a time as the storm had a very large envelope despite its well offshore track. In between these blizzards on Friday February 5th, a wet snow storm would impact much of Southern New England with widespread snowfall amounts of 6-12″ and tree and power line damage from the weight wet of the wet snow. There were two fatalities from this storm and over 100,000 people without power from this storm event. Later in the winter, a couple late winter/early spring snow events affected the region on Sunday April 3rd, where 3-6″ of snow occurred in portions of the area away from the immediate coast and strong to damaging winds caused tree and power line damage between the winds and the wet snow accumulation. There were 2 fatalities in that storm incident when a tree fell down on a moving vehicle. on Monday April 4th, a second late season snowstorm brought 4-8″ of snow in a narrow band of interior Southeast Massachusetts and South-Central Rhode Island near the rain-snow line. Some communities reported a wide range of snowfall within their same town due to the location of the rain-snow line and the depth of Amateur Radio SKYWARN spotters showed the difference in these communities and how the snowfall amounts varied within in certain communities.

The Spring and early summer of 2016 was relatively quiet with some smaller SKYWARN Activations and Self-Activations before we got later into the summer season of severe weather in mid-July with several SKYWARN Activations over the week of July 18th resulting in Ops at the NWS Taunton Forecast Office. Numerous reports of wind damage and large hail were received during SKYWARN Activations on Monday July 18th, Friday July 22nd and Saturday July 23rd. During the SKYWARN Activations of July 22nd and July 23rd, a problem with the Doppler Radar made strong to severe thunderstorms stronger than they appeared and made spotter reports during those events critical to determine the real strength of the strong to severe thunderstorms. Another active period of severe weather was the Friday August 13th-Sunday August 15th timeframe with several severe weather events during that period including 3 separate rounds of severe weather on Saturday August 14th extending into the early morning hours of Sunday August 15th with severe weather occurring out until 4 AM on that Sunday.

During the early Monday Morning hours of August 22nd as a cold front moved through the region, the environment was favorable for isolated severe thunderstorms and the possibility of an isolated tornado despite the unfavorable time of day for such a scenario as a cold front moved through the region. The potential would be realized as a severe thunderstorm took shape in Eastern Worcester county extending into Central Middlesex County Massachusetts. This would lead to a severe thunderstorm warning and later a tornado warning for central Middlesex County. Near real time reports of isolated wind damage in Marlborough and Sudbury turned into an area of concentrated tree and power line damage over Concord, Massachusetts. It was in Concord Massachusetts where an EF-1 Tornado was confirmed there with near real-time reports of tree and power line damage and roads blocked from fallen trees and wires came in from SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Concord police and fire departments. The near real-time reporting gave NWS Taunton an area of focus for a storm survey and resulted in a rapid confirmation of an EF-1 Tornado touchdown in Concord, Massachusetts.

On Labor Day, Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine would bring nor’easter like conditions to Southeast New England with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with higher gusts of 50-60 MPH over the islands and portions of southern Cape Cod. This resulted in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages with Tropical Storm Warnings for the Southeast New England coast. Other parts of Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northeast Connecticut would experience wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and with trees weakened by drought conditions also resulted in isolated pockets of wind damage in these areas but to a lesser extend than areas of Southeast New England. On Sunday September 11th, a short fused severe weather situation occurred that Sunday Morning as a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms caused pockets of wind damage and hail across much of interior western, central and northeastern Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut.

The Fall edition of the Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter had a summary of the summer to early Fall severe weather season. A link to the newsletter can be seen at the following link:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/Iss6vol2_2016_10_prevailing_winds.pdf

In October, Hurricane Matthew tracked south of Southern New England but briefly brought concerns to our area as initial long range model guidance had a track near Southern New England but that did not materialize. Moisture from Hurricane Matthew would be brought into the region via cold front bringing beneficial rainfall to Southern New England. It also brought strong to damaging winds with wind gusts in the 50 to 65 MPH range over Southeast New England causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage on Sunday October 9th particularly over Cape Cod and the islands but also in other parts of Southeast Coastal New England.

A strong cold front after very mild conditions brought a significant flash flood event across Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island on Friday October 21st. This event was associated with strong thunderstorms that trained over the same area. This led to one of the worst flash flood events in recent memory in the city of Worcester with multiple Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN spotter reports of measured rainfall between 4 and 5.2″ of rain in just 90 minutes. This led to significant flash flooding of urban areas in Worcester prompting activation of the Worcester EOC for several hours during the flash flood event. Many reports from SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators told of significant urban flooding up to car roof tops and cars floating on various roadways in Worcester. Other hard hit areas was in Shrewsbury and the Leominster to Fitchburg and Lunenburg area into Central Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts and parts of the Metro Boston area. The flash flooding occurred at night which made the flash flood event more dangerous motorists. The near real-time reporting during this event was very critical to the warning process. Later Saturday Evening into Sunday behind the storm, strong to damaging winds caused isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages in the region. On Thursday Evening October 27th, the first snow storm would blanket parts of Western Massachusetts in the higher elevation and hill towns with 3-6″ of wet snow and with trees still having leaves on them, tree and power line damage would occur with over 7000 customers without power at the height of the storm. The month of October was one of the few above normal precipitation months of 2016. In December, we’ve had one activation with Ops at NWS Taunton for strong to damaging winds that reached High Wind Warning criteria in portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area on Thursday December 15th and the first widespread SKYWARN Self-Activation for snowfall reports on Saturday December 17th as we begin the 2017 winter weather season.

As we move forward in 2017, we will be continuing our commitment to SKYWARN training. Planning has already started with five training class booked and several other classes in planning. The latest 2017 SKYWARN Training Schedule can be seen at the following link:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

We also know that we’ve continued to have a large influx of SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators after a full slate of SKYWARN Training classes. As we move forward into 2017, we will continue documenting ways to communicate with us during activation and assure people understand the self-activation and activation protocols used today. We will also look at ways spotters and Amateurs can become more active in supporting efforts to gather critical reports from other areas beyond where they are located and do so in a precise manner.

We will also continue to embrace new technologies while maintaining all the other technologies utilized to gather as much real-time and precise meteorological and damage report information as possible. We utilized DMR during the 2016 SKYWARN Recognition Day event and will be looking to add that capability when possible during activations.  We will attempt to look at DDSTAR Amateur Radio as an additional means for reporting during severe weather and we are still looking at a new Amateur Radio technology called NBEMS, the Narrow Band Emergency Messaging System, as a potential means to gather weather spotter data digitally over Ham Radio. These are added capabilities that we will be looking at and will not replace the continued core technologies within VHF and UHF (2 Meters/440 MHz) SKYWARN Amateur Radio Repeaters and simplex capabilities, our usage of Echolink/IRLP Amateur Radio linked repeaters, Amateur Radio HF and 6 Meters capabilities as well as monitoring of weather stations ingested over APRS and into the Mesonet networks that have supported and helped with seeing what is happening on the ground.

We will also be looking at other ways to engage both Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters via other ways to get near real-time and historical spotter reports and near real-time video and pictures as well as historical video and pictures after a major severe weather event via a project the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team is working over the past 4 month period. Further details on this will be announced as the project progresses. This will further enhance our abilities to gather situational awareness and disaster intelligence information in a short period of time.

We continue to have our twitter feed setup and you can follow WX1BOX on Twitter by following our Amateur Radio Call-Sign, WX1BOX and have our WX1BOX Facebook page available as well. NWS Taunton has also continued the use of their Twitter and Facebook feeds as well over the course of 2016. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators can follow WX1BOX and ‘NWSBoston’ on twitter and on facebook can ‘like’ these pages. They are available via the following links:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio SKYWARN Facebook Page:
http://www.facebook.com/wx1box

NWS Taunton Facebook Page:
http://www.facebook.com/#!/US.NationalWeatherService.Boston.gov?fref=ts

WX1BOX Amateur Radio SKYWARN Twitter Feed:
http://twitter.com/wx1box

NWS Taunton Twitter feed:
https://twitter.com/NWSBoston

We, again, want to provide a tremendous THANK YOU to all of you that supported SKYWARN and the National Weather Service during 2016. We wish everyone once again, a Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and Happy Holiday Season and hope people enjoy their time with family and friends during this joyous holiday season!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 12/24/16 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Happy Holidays to all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators..
..A storm system on Christmas Eve will bring a mix of precipitation Saturday Morning into the early afternoon in northern and western parts of the coverage area with mostly rain in southern and eastern parts of the coverage area with some strong wind gusts just below wind advisory criteria along coastal Southern New England..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 5 AM to 2 PM Saturday for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden and Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 1-3″ of snow in the higher elevations of the advisory area from around 1000 feet or higher and a coating to 1″ of snow in lower elevations with a trace of icing from freezing rain across all elevations of the advisory area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions Saturday Morning into early afternoon across the Winter Weather Advisory area and along the coast for any strong wind gusts. This will be the only coordination message on this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics..

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 12/18/16 Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..After the winter storm that brought snow and ice to the region Saturday, a warmer storm system and cold front will sweep through Southern New England bringing strong winds over Southeast New England and a period of heavy rainfall. Dense fog conditions also occurring this morning in areas that have had snowfall and a snowpack from yesterday. A flash freeze is expected as the cold front sweeps through late this afternoon and could freeze standing water on area roadways causing black ice conditions..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect until 4 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH likely. Winds close to or at wind advisory thresholds are also possible in other parts of South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island particularly in areas where there is no longer a snow pack..
..A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut through 10 AM. Watch for reduced visibility through this morning until the rain arrives later this morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds, heavy rainfall and flash freeze conditions for today. This will be the only coordination on this storm system unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Dense Fog and Wind Advisory statement, Special Weather statement for the flash freeze expected later today and the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Also provided is the Public Information Statement on snowfall from the Saturday storm..

NWS Taunton Wind and Dense Fog Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on Flash Freeze Conditions:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Saturday 12/17/16 Snowfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1612180233.nous41.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 12/17/16 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..After the strong to damaging winds Thursday into early Friday Morning and the bitterly cold wind chills of Friday Morning, a winter storm will bring snow and ice to interior Southern New England and snow to ice to rain across East and South Coastal Massachusetts, South Coastal Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island. A flash freeze after temperatures warm near or above freezing is possible in interior Southern New England..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 3 PM Saturday for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex County Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island for 3-6″ of snow and up to one tenth of an inch of ice..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Saturday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and the rest of Rhode Island except Block Island for 1-4″ of snow before a changeover to rain. A flash freeze could affect north-central parts of this advisory area in the evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall reports and changeover in precipitation type including Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets during the morning/early afternoon for snowfall reports and later in the afternoon for freezing rain and ice accretion as needed..

Strong to damaging winds occurred in portions of Southern New England Thursday into early Friday Morning. Links to the wind measurements and wind damage reports can be seen here:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1612161740.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1612160905.nous41.html

A storm system will track to the north and west of Southern New England. This will bring snow changing to freezing rain in interior Southern New England and snow to freezing rain to rain over East Coastal and Southeast New England. The headliners depict current snowfall and ice accretion expectations. The ice accretion aspect will need to be monitored in case more freezing rain occurs than expected as well as the possibility for a flash freeze in areas that are near or just above freezing as this could create tough travel conditions if the flash freeze occurs after snow and ice falls and any wet roadways freeze over.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall reports and changeover in precipitation type including Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets during the morning/early afternoon for snowfall reports and later in the afternoon for freezing rain and ice accretion as needed. Another coordination message could be issued Saturday Evening for strong winds and rainfall as a cold front approaches the region on Sunday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Evening 12/15/16-Friday Morning 12/16/16 – Damaging Wind and Bitter Cold Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Arctic Cold Front will blast through Southern New England bringing bitterly cold conditions and the potential for damaging winds overnight Thursday into early Friday Morning. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should closely monitor the Thursday Evening/overnight period for potential damaging winds..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area starting at 5 PM Thursday Afternoon across the entire NWS Taunton coverage area ending at 5 AM Friday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands and 4 AM Friday Morning for the rest of the NWS Taunton coverage area for sustained winds of 20-40 MPH with gusts in the 60-70 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds could potentially cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Chill Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Thursday Evening through 11 AM Friday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, and North-Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for wind chills as low as 21 below zero and air temperatures in the 5 below to 5 above zero range overnight and getting up to 15 degrees above zero Friday Morning. A Wind Chill Advisory is also in effect from Midnight to 9 AM Friday for Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Eastern Essex, and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts, Northwest Providence County of Rhode Island and all of Northern Connecticut for wind chills as low as 6 below zero and air temperatures in the single digits above zero overnight and in the low teens by mid-morning to midday Friday. Areas outside of the Wind Chill Advisory areas will see wind chills in the single digits above zero to zero degrees and people should dress appropriately if outdoors..
..An additional storm system will potentially impact the region with a plowable snowfall before a changeover to ice and then rain with rain extending into Sunday and the possibility for some strong winds though not as significant as Thursday Evening at this time. This will be assessed further in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 4-5 PM EST to monitor the strong wind and wind damage potential as the strongest winds maybe a bit earlier than previously modeled. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Evening and seek advice from local leadership due to bitterly cold conditions and the potential for power outages..

An active several day weather period is expected across Southern New England. An Arctic Cold front will bring a short-lived but very intense period of bitterly cold conditions. It will also bring the potential for damaging winds. The damaging wind potential is during Thursday Evening extending into the overnight hours into early Friday Morning and then will subside during the day Friday. High Wind Watches have been upgraded now to High Wind Warnings for the entire region. It is also noted that the strongest winds could start earlier this evening into the overnight hours. This is pushing up the activation start time to the 4-5 PM timeframe. With the bitterly cold weather and the potential for possible power outages, this will need close monitoring. Wind Chills will add to the bitterly cold conditions over the region. Wind Chill Watches were upgraded and expanded into Wind Chill Advisories for much of Southern New England as noted in the message headlines.

Following the cold front with bitterly cold conditions and the damaging wind potential, another storm system will approach with the potential for a plowable snowfall followed by some ice and then rain across much of Southern New England particularly away from the coast. There will also be the potential for some strong winds with this storm system though currently not as strong as Thursday Evening’s potential winds. There could also be widespread rainfall over the region extending into Sunday. Details on this storm will be covered in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 4-5 PM EST to monitor the strong wind and wind damage potential as the strongest winds maybe a bit earlier than previously modeled. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Evening and seek advice from local leadership due to bitterly cold conditions and the potential for power outages. This will be the last coordination message on the damaging wind and bitter cold conditions for tonight into Friday Morning. The next coordination message on the weekend storm will be posted by Noon Friday given Amateur Radio operations for the damaging wind potential for tonight. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement, Wind Chill Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Chill Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Evening 12/15/16-Friday Morning 12/16/16 – Damaging Wind and Bitter Cold Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Arctic Cold Front will blast through Southern New England bringing bitterly cold conditions and the potential for damaging winds overnight Thursday into early Friday Morning. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should closely monitor the Thursday Evening/overnight period for potential damaging winds..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night/early Friday Morning for sustained winds of 20-40 MPH with gusts in the 65-70 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds could potentially cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Chill Watch is now in effect from late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, and North-Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for wind chills as low as 20 below zero and air temperatures in the 5 below to 5 above zero range. Bitterly cold wind chills will also affect other parts of Southern New England and could result in additional wind chill headlines..
..An additional storm system will potentially impact the region with a plowable snowfall before a changeover to ice and then rain with rain extending into Sunday and the possibility for some strong winds though not as significant as Thursday Evening at this time. This will be assessed further in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 7 PM EST to monitor the strong wind and wind damage potential. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Evening and seek advice from local leadership due to bitterly cold conditions and the potential for power outages..

An active several day weather period is expected across Southern New England. An Arctic Cold front will bring a short-lived but very intense period of bitterly cold conditions. It will also bring the potential for damaging winds. The damaging wind potential is during Thursday Evening extending into the overnight hours into early Friday Morning and then will subside during the day Friday. With the bitterly cold weather and the potential for possible power outages, this will need close monitoring. Wind Chills will add to the bitterly cold conditions over the region.

Following the cold front with bitterly cold conditions and the damaging wind potential, another storm system will approach with the potential for a plowable snowfall followed by some ice and then rain across much of Southern New England particularly away from the coast. There will also be the potential for some strong winds with this storm system though currently not as strong as Thursday Evening’s potential winds. There could also be widespread rainfall over the region extending into Sunday. Details on this storm will be covered in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 7 PM EST to monitor the strong wind and wind damage potential. ARES/RACES groups should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Evening and seek advice from local leadership due to bitterly cold conditions and the potential for power outages. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Wind Chill Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Chill Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Storm Coordination Message #3- Sunday Evening 12/11/16-Monday After 12/12/16 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Plowable snowfall expected for much of interior Southern New England Sunday Night through midday Monday with a fairly rapid snow to ice to rain transition along coastal areas from the Boston to Providence corridor south and east and a slower transition of snow to ice to rain across Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Northeast Massachusetts to near the I-495 corridor with mostly snow and ice north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495. The Monday Morning commute will have wintry impacts particularly from the I-495 corridor north and west and from just south of the Massachusetts/Connecticut/Rhode Island border and points north..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Sunday Evening through 1 PM Monday for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties for 4-8″ of snow and possibly some light icing of a few hundredths of an inch..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this Sunday Evening to 1 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and from Essex and Southeast Middlesex Counties westward through Western Hampden and Central and Eastern Franklin Counties of Massachusetts. Total snowfall of 3-6″ is expected along and north of the Mass Pike and along and west of I-495 with a trace to one tenth of an inch ice near I-495 and the Mass Pike. Total snowfall of 2-4″ is expected for much of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and interior Northeast Massachusetts between the I-95 and I-495 corridor with a trace to a tenth of an inch of ice. A coating to 2″ of snow is expected along and south and east of I-95 from the Boston to Providence corridor south and east. Model solutions have varied on how long cold air will hold in the region but this latest update appears to be a reasonable expectation for snow and ice totals in the region..
..Some minor splashover at the time of high tide between 4-8 AM is possible in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. A coastal flood statement has been sent regarding this threat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall and icing reports and changeover in precipitation type reports for this storm event. Some Amateur Radio call-up nets on local SKYWARN repeaters are likely early Monday Morning through midday in the 6 AM to 1 PM timeframe on Amateur Radio SKYWARN repeaters in Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts..

The first widespread snowfall of the season is expected across much of Southern New England and especially interior locations of Southern New England. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current thinking. The biggest change in this update is to upgrade Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties of Northwest Massachusetts to a Winter Storm Warning and that a coastal flood statement has been issued for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Monday Morning high tide. Key items for this storm continue to include:

1.) Timing of the onset of the storm. It will initially be cold and if snow is able to reach the ground Sunday Evening, it will be a light fluffier snow which could allow for more accumulation. If it is too dry, it may take time for thing to moisten up to allow snow to reach the ground.
2.) How long the cold air is able to remain entrenched in the region and how deep the cold air will be. This will determine if snow is able to last longer particularly in interior locations and how much any ice accumulation could be in the area. It is noted that temperatures were colder than expected this morning and that will need to be monitored to see how much warming occurs during the day and this could affect snow and ice amounts.
3.) Storm track and how quickly secondary low formation occurs and where it tracks. This could impact the amount of cold air in the region as highlighted in item 2.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall and icing reports and changeover in precipitation type reports for this storm event. Some Amateur Radio call-up nets on local SKYWARN repeaters are likely early Monday Morning through midday in the 6 AM to 1 PM timeframe on Amateur Radio SKYWARN repeaters in Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts. This will be the last coordination message on this winter storm unless time allows and a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory statement, Coastal Flood Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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