Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 5/31/17 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely to develop late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening across Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded this area to a slight risk for severe weather for Wednesday with a marginal risk area surrounding the slight risk area into parts of Eastern Massachusetts. Timeframe for severe weather activity is in the 4-10 PM EDT timeframe..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM EDT to monitor the severe weather potential..
At 1030 AM EDT, satellite and radar imagery shows cloud cover over Southern New England with some shower activity over western and southern parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. This activity is moving northeast with significant clearing over New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. This clearing should make its way from west to east across the region in the midday to early afternoon. This should allow the necessary heating and destabilization to take place to allow for an increasing potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across portions of Southern New England particularly north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor and especially over Northern Connecticut and Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts. There continues to be sufficient wind shear profiles aloft along with good cooling aloft to help with strong to severe thunderstorm development. The key item that will determine the severe weather potential and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is the amount of heating and destabilization that can occur. If the clearing works from west to east as expected, this should allow a level of severe weather potential to be realized. If clouds remain over the area, it would limit the severe weather potential in the region.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM EDT to monitor the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift to operations mode later this afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely to develop late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening across Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded this area to a slight risk for severe weather for Wednesday with a marginal risk area surrounding the slight risk area into parts of Eastern Massachusetts. Timeframe for severe weather activity is in the 4-10 PM EDT timeframe..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM EDT to monitor the severe weather potential..
At 1030 AM EDT, satellite and radar imagery shows cloud cover over Southern New England with some shower activity over western and southern parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. This activity is moving northeast with significant clearing over New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. This clearing should make its way from west to east across the region in the midday to early afternoon. This should allow the necessary heating and destabilization to take place to allow for an increasing potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across portions of Southern New England particularly north and west of the Boston to Providence corridor and especially over Northern Connecticut and Western, Central and Northern Massachusetts. There continues to be sufficient wind shear profiles aloft along with good cooling aloft to help with strong to severe thunderstorm development. The key item that will determine the severe weather potential and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is the amount of heating and destabilization that can occur. If the clearing works from west to east as expected, this should allow a level of severe weather potential to be realized. If clouds remain over the area, it would limit the severe weather potential in the region.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 PM EDT to monitor the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift to operations mode later this afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box