Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to move east-northeast this Sunday Morning and will eventually slow and move more northward and northwestward later today and tonight and intensify tonight into Monday. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave are expected to be a bit later starting early Sunday Evening over the islands and late tonight along Southeast Coastal New England lasting through the early to mid afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into later Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue and continue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon..

Since the last coordination message Saturday Afternoon, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were yesterday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the early Sunday Evening into Monday afternoon with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a very wide spread among them with the Euro closest to Southern New England and other models trying to send the system near or even to the coast of Southern New Jersey and/or Delaware. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further east with the euro both north and east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted between 3 PM and 8 PM pending updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has reemerged off the coast of North Carolina and will be lingering to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave in the late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong to damaging winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning..

Since the last coordination message Friday Morning, confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions across Southeast Coastal New England. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. While confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions in southeast coastal New England, there is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. If the track remains further south, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Saturday Evening or Noon Sunday depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall as a Category-1 hurricane early Friday Morning in the St Marks Florida area. Hermine, will track up the Southeast US coast and reemerge of the North Carolina coast and reintensify into either a strong post tropical system or possibly keep or regain tropical characteristics.
..Hermine is expected to stall offshore to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the mid-atlantic states for several days. Rain and wind threats are possible especially in southern and southeast portions of Southern New England but extent of those threats is very uncertain and may depend on where Hermine goes stationary or how close to the coast her ultimate track is..
..The National Hurricane Center is advising that interests along the Northeast United States coast should monitor the progress of this system prompting the start of coordination messages on Hermine..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time..

With Hermine tracking through the Southeast United States and the National Hurricane Center advising interests in the Northeast to monitor the progress of Hermine, coordination messages for this system have started. Exact impacts are very uncertain. Hermine is expected to emerge off the North Carolina coast and then stall south of Southern New England coast and east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Where Hermine stalls and the intensity and characteristics of Hermine will ultimately determine impacts particularly to southern and southeast portions of Southern New England. One item that is very certain is that coastal Southern New England will experience high surf and rip currents on coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for beachgoers. There will be some potential for rain and wind impacts but the extent is uncertain and could range from little to no rain and sub-criteria winds to strong to damaging winds and heavier rainfall. Coastal impacts could range from minor beach erosion to a more widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding. Future model runs and the characteristics, intensity and track of Hermine will determine these impacts with greater confidence. The main impacts right now appear to be Sunday into Monday but given the stalling track, there could be some impacts beyond this timeframe.

At this time, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Hermine and begin thinking about some low level of preparations. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening or 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Sunday August 28th, 2016 is the fifth anniversary of Tropical Storm Irene’s impacts on Southern New England. Irene caused widespread pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across all of Southern New England, pockets of moderate coastal flooding along the coast line and significant flooding of rivers, streams and roads especially in portions of Western New England and into Eastern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire..
..To commemorate the anniversary, prior summary stories and reports of Irene are listed below including a video on Tropical Storm/Hurricane Irene based on pictures from many Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters..

ARRL ARES E-Letter link:
http://www.arrl.org/ares-el?issue=2011-09-28

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/psh_9_1_11.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_8_28_11.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_29_11.txt

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Irene Post Storm Video:
http://www.nsradio.org/video/features/recap/irene/index.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

We are pleased to announce two Fall 2016 NWS Taunton SKYWARN classes for September. There is a possibility we may have a couple more SKYWARN Classes during the Fall season. You can check for updates via the following link:

http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

Class schedule listed below:

Wednesday September 7th, 2016: 530-730 PM:
Edgartown Public Library
35 Robinson Road
Edgartown, MA
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecaster
Registration: None Required

Friday September 9th, 2016: 1-4 PM:
Holiday Inn – Boxborough – Seminar Room
242 Adams Place
Boxborough Mass.
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: None Required
Sponsorship: This training is being run in conjunction with the ARRL
New England Division Convention and Ham Radio Show. This is being done prior
to the Hamfest starting and no admission will be charged on Friday for those
interested in attending this SKYWARN Training session.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..EF1 Tornado confirmed in Concord Massachusetts with straight-line wind damage also recorded in Concord, Massachusetts between 320 and 330 AM. This is the first nocturnal tornado to hit Southern New England/Massachusetts since July 11th, 1970. SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Concord Mass Police/Fire and EMS critical in relaying initial reports into NWS Taunton and we are grateful to all for their efforts..
..More isolated wind damage reports occurred in the Boylston, Marlborough, Sudbury, Billerica and Woburn Massachusetts area..
..Beneficial Rainfall occurred across portions of Southern New England from the overnight storm system but not enough to significantly reduce the drought and rainfall deficit in much of the region..
..Any additional damage photos from the Concord Mass area or other areas of Middlesex County Massachusetts can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or to the pics@nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter, Amateur Radio Operator, or individual who provided the photo. This will be the only Post Severe Weather Coordination Message unless additional significant information is made available. Below is the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement, Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Album..

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in Concord Massachusetts:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_8_22_16.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – 8/22/16:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_8_22_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1270579259642756

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

On August 19th, 1991, Hurricane Bob impacted Southern New England as the last landfalling hurricane to strike the region. NWS Taunton has put together a web page summarizing the impacts of Hurricane Bob on the region. In addition, back in 2011 commemorating the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Bob’s impact on the region, NWS Taunton put a Public Information Statement out summarizing Bob’s impacts on the region and finally, local SKYWARN Spotter and Amateur Radio Operator, ML Baron-KA1WBH has a complete web page of videos and information on Bob’s impacts on South Coastal Massachusetts. Links to pertinent information on Hurricane Bob can be seen at the following links:

NWS Taunton Web Page – Hurricane Bob Summary:
http://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob

WX1BOX Web Page Link on Hurricane Bob and the August 19th, 2011 Public Information Statement 20th Anniversary Statement:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/1234

KA1WBH-ML Baron – West Island Weather Station Hurricane Bob Summary Page:
http://www.westislandweather.com/hurricanebob1991.htm

We are approaching the main timeframe for Southern New England to be impacted from a tropical system. While it has been a very dry summer over the region, we should remain vigilant and prepared and monitor developments from the tropics as we approach the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Now is the time to review your personal/family preparedness plans for any type of tropical system impact and to review plans and be prepared to spot and report conditions based on the SKYWARN reporting criteria in the event a tropical system impacts the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Convective showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are likely tonight across much of Southern New England between 9 PM to 1 AM in Western and Central New England and between 1 AM to 6 AM across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding associated with the heavy rainfall is the main concern but a secondary concern for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with a strong to damaging wind component is also possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for reportable criteria conditions during the overnight hours..

A cold front will move through Southern New England overnight into early Monday Morning and will bring the first fall-like temperatures of the late summer for a couple of days to start the new work week. Ahead of the front, convective showers and thunderstorms are likely as the headlines depict the main concern heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding but there is a secondary concern for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with a strong to damaging wind component as well. There is even the small chance for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout in Southeast New England if there is enough instability to tap into strengthening wind shear profiles. The most likely scenario is for the heavy rainfall and the potential for localized urban and poor drainage flooding but we cannot rule out an isolated severe thunderstorms with a localized strong to damaging wind threat as the front moves through the entire region and the possibility of a weak tornado/waterspout and that possibility confined to Southeast New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for reportable criteria conditions during the overnight hours. This will likely be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential unless Ops at NWS become required or a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday after midday through evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out and is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center has now placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..The timeframe for severe weather is now looking more like from midday today through late evening. This timeframe could be fine tuned as we go through the day..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. The start time of activation could be around 11 AN-Noon or towards mid-afternoon. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows to update the timeframe for Ops at NWS..

Tuesday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in Southern New England. A warm front will push its way through Southern New England in the morning and early afternoon followed by a pre-frontal trough and cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Right now, it is looking more like the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be later in the day (likely midday into late evening). As the warm front moves through, there appears to be enough cloud breaks for heating and destabilization. If that trend continues coupled with the sufficient strong wind shear profiles, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out and is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of Southern New England to a Slight Risk for severe weather with Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. The start time of activation could be around 11 AN-Noon or towards mid-afternoon. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows to update the timeframe for Ops at NWS. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out and is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Timeframe could be either two rounds with the first round between 7 AM-1 PM followed by a break and then a second round between 3-10 PM or all the activity could be centered after Noon Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as 7 AM with any morning convection with SKYWARN Self-Activation likely. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for the afternoon and evening severe weather potential..

Tuesday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in Southern New England. A warm front will push its way through Southern New England in the morning and early afternoon followed by a pre-frontal trough and cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday Night. The warm front could bring a round of thunderstorms with frequent lightning and torrential rain and an isolated risk for strong to damaging winds and possibly even an isolated tornado and then more activity could occur after the warm front passes behind the pre-frontal trough and cold front. This activity could occur in the 7 AM-1 PM timeframe associated with the warm front followed by a brief break with more activity in the 3-10 PM timeframe or it could be a situation where activity will start around midday and last through early to mid evening. There will be strong wind shear for storms on Tuesday and instability levels despite potential cloud cover may also be sufficient given the level of wind shear and the position of the warm front to our region. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as 7 AM with any morning convection with SKYWARN Self-Activation likely. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for the afternoon and evening severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be posted by 800 AM Tuesday and may be a shortened coordination message depending on how the severe weather potential for Tuesday Morning evolves. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160815_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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