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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/23/16 Severe Weather Potential & Post Severe Weather Message for Friday 7/22/16 Severe Weather Event

July 23, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..After Friday’s severe weather event, another round of at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely for portions of Southern New England this afternoon into early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England through East Coastal Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Saturday for today’s severe weather potential..

Friday’s severe weather event brought scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England with the hardest hit areas including the Westboro/Southboro, Mass area, West Warwick, RI and the Dayville/Killingly CT area. Any additional photos or late reports can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds, or to my rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. The pictures will be sent to NWS, media, and emergency management. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall, WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio log and a link to the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231238.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231228.nous41.html

WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_22_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1246470188720330

Turning our attention to Saturday’s severe weather potential, we appear again to have the right mix of instability, wind shear and in this case a stronger triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the SPC marginal severe weather risk area. In addition, there will be a level of cooling aloft which may allow for a greater potential for hail and large hail in the strongest thunderstorms. The headlines depict the timing and nature of the severe weather potential. Key factors that could limit the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is the level of drying in the atmosphere as the day wears on and whether the strong wind shear values are maintained as the impulse in the atmosphere that will trigger convection moves into the region. At this time, there is expected to be sufficient overlap in instability, wind shear, and moisture for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England away from the south coastal areas and there is the possibility for there to be numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region if mitigating factors on moisture are overcome and maintaining the strong winds as the impulse approaches occurs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT for today’s severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message posted on Saturday’s severe weather potential.

Also, it is noted that the NWS Taunton radar is having an issue where thunderstorms are looking stronger than they would normally. This is due to a problem with the radar. Radar maintenance was completed Saturday but a part is required to address the issue. The radar will remain available for use but note that storms could look approximately 10 DBz stronger than reality. If the radar ends up being down, it is likely because of this issue with the radar but for now it will remain available for use and any users of the NWS Taunton radar should note that it will be running “hotter” or stronger on thunderstorm reflectivity than normal. This furthers the importance of spotter reports based on the reporting criteria to understand what is actually happening at the surface. See the NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message link below for information:

NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201607231456-KBOX-NOUS61-FTMBOX

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook – Saturday July 23rd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 7/22/16 and Saturday 7/23/16 Severe Weather Potential

July 22, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night across much of Southern New England away from the south coast of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continued much of New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather and now extends through South Coastal New England..
..Threat timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorms is after 400 PM EDT Friday. It is noted that this event has the potential to be a potent outbreak for severe weather but like many severe weather events in Southern New England exact details and small mesoscale deviations could drastically alter the potential or the timing of the severe weather..
..SPC has also placed portions of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Saturday, particularly interior Southern New England. This severe weather potential will likely hinge on what occurs late Friday Afternoon through Friday Night..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT Friday through the early portion of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible for Saturday..

Satellite imagery this morning shows some cloud cover over Southern New England, particularly in western areas, as a line of showers is swinging through Northern New England. There is good clearing behind this in New York State so cloud cover moving out around late morning/midday seems on track and this should allow for intense heating and destabilization with favorable wind shear profiles. This can potentially set the stage for either a cluster or several clusters of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for the region. There is also the possibility for a larger complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System to take shape and sweep through much of Southern New England. The timing is a bit uncertain with unstable conditions by mid to late afternoon but weather models showing high levels of instability through the night which could mean severe weather extending into some portion of the overnight hours or not starting until later Friday Evening.

While the setup for severe weather as modeled as high potential, small mesoscale deviations could impact this potential and this includes the following:

1.) There is an insufficient trigger in the atmosphere to set off the favorable levels of instability and shear.
2.) A complex of severe thunderstorms forms but stays up in Northern New England and doesn’t dive southeast into Southern New England. The other possibility is radar this morning is showing a line of thunderstorms forming over Lake Erie, Northeast Ohio, Northeast Pennsylvania and Southwest New York. Does this activity and its movement miss our area with no extension of any strong to severe thunderstorm activity into New York State swinging into Southern New England? Some models show this while others show the extension of the activity in New York State swinging through Southern New England.
3.) The Cloud cover from any leftover upstream convection reducing instability is now less likely based on current satellite and radar trends. Unless something changes, this is least likely to impact the severe weather potential.

For Saturday, SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather over portions of interior Southern New England. There will remain good shear profiles for Saturday and there should be good heating for Saturday depending on how much convection is seen late Friday Afternoon and Friday Night in Southern New England. There is some question as to how much moisture will be available to tap into the good wind shear profiles and how Friday’s convection effects the environment for Saturday. This will be greater detailed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT. This will be the last coordination message on the Friday severe weather potential. For Saturday’s severe weather potential, the next coordination message will either be posted late Friday Evening or by 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on how active late Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening is for severe weather. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Special Weather Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook for Saturday severe weather potential and the latest Friday NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which provides a good technical/meteorological overview of the severe weather potential for Friday for those more advanced spotters who would like that level of detailed info.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook – Friday July 22nd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook – Saturday July 23rd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 22nd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

July 22, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night across much of Southern New England away from the south coast of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather except the southernmost part of Southern New England is in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Threat timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorms is after 400 PM EDT Friday. It is noted that this event has the potential to be a potent outbreak for severe weather but like many severe weather events in Southern New England exact details and small mesoscale deviations could drastically alter the potential or the timing of the severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT..

A rather interesting severe weather setup is shaping up for Southern New England and the Northeast US on Friday. The headlines give current thinking and as stated in the headlines, this event has high severe weather potential but small mesoscale deviations that can be difficult to resolve could alter the outcome. Also, the timing of the severe weather has uncertainty. There is some cloud cover expected in the morning but this should clear out by late Friday Morning and this should allow for intense heating and destabilization with favorable wind shear profiles. This can potentially set the stage for either a cluster or several clusters of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for the region. There is also the possibility for a larger complex of strong to severe thunderstorms known as a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System to take shape and sweep through much of Southern New England. The timing is a bit uncertain with unstable conditions by mid to late afternoon but weather models showing high levels of instability through the night which could mean severe weather extending into some portion of the overnight hours or not starting until later Friday Evening.

While the setup for severe weather as modeled as high potential, small mesoscale deviations could impact this potential and this includes the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any leftover upstream convection and thunderstorms goes later into the afternoon and reduces the level of instability.
2.) There is an insufficient trigger in the atmosphere to set off the favorable levels of instability and shear.
3.) A complex of severe thunderstorms forms but stays up in Northern New England and doesn’t dive southeast into Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 4 PM EDT. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM EDT Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the late Thursday Afternoon NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which provides a good technical/meteorological overview of the severe weather potential for Friday for those more advanced spotters who would like that level of detailed info.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160721_1730.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607211945.fxus61.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: 2016 ARRL Hurricane Webinar – Thursday July 21st, 2016 800-930 PM EDT

July 21, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

The ARRL will be hosting a Hurricane Webinar on Thursday July 21st, 2016 from 800-930 PM EDT. Details on registration can be seen via the following link:
http://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-to-sponsor-2016-atlantic-season-hurricane-webinar

The webinar will go through an overview of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and key Amateur Radio group’s preparedness for the season and how Amateur Radio Operators and SKYWARN Spotters can become involved. These Amateur Radio Group’s include, WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, which is now in its 36th year of service, the Hurricane Watch Net, the VoIP Hurricane Net and the American Radio Relay League (ARRL). Also, an Amateur Radio Operator who is the Warning Preparedness Meteorologist at the Canadian Hurricane Centre will be given the meteorological overview of the season.

We hope many folks can join the 2016 ARRL Hurricane Webinar!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 18th 2016 Severe Weather Outbreak

July 19, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The first severe weather outbreak of the 2016 Summer Season affected portions of Southern New England Monday 7/18/16. Hardest hit areas were in Franklin County Massachusetts, the Haverhill to Merrimac Massachusetts area and in the area from Framingham, Wellesley, Needham, Boston, Weymouth, Quincy, Hingham to Cohassett Massachusetts. Spotty pockets of wind damage were also reported in Southern Hartford County Connecticut and Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts..
..Main severe weather mode was damaging winds with small hail and minor street flooding. Damage photos are still useful in documenting this severe weather event and a Facebook Album has been created on the WX1BOX Facebook Page. Pictures can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the Amateur Radio Operator or non Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotter who sends in the photos unless otherwise indicated. The photos will be shared with the National Weather Service, media, emergency management and non-governmental organizations..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, the “raw” WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and the WX1BOX Facebook Album fro the Monday 7/18/16 severe weather outbreak..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio Log of reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_18_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album – Monday July 18th 2016 Severe Weather Outbreak:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1243634025670613

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday July 18th, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

July 18, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk for severe weather across Western and Central Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening..

The heat and humidity will continue on Monday and be even warmer and more humid than Sunday across the region. A trough and cold front is still expected to swing through Southern New England later Monday Afternoon into Monday Night with the potential of one or two rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The first round potentially being in the mid-afternoon into early evening with a second round possible in the early evening through late Monday Night around the midnight timeframe. There will be sufficient heating for destabilization and sufficiently strong shear profiles to support severe weather and the timing of the trough is looking favorable to tap into the destabilized atmosphere and the sufficiently strong shear profiles. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats though there is a secondary threat for an isolated tornado in the severe weather slight risk area covering Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. As is generally the case with these situations, the thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered so not all areas will see thunderstorms or severe weather but some areas will see thunderstorms and localized areas scattered about Southern New England could see severe weather as the trough and cold front swing through the area later today into Monday Night with the greatest risk for severe weather in interior Southern New England especially Western and Central Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 18th, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

July 17, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening..

The heat and humidity will continue on Monday and be even warmer and more humid than Sunday across the region. A trough and cold front will swing through Southern New England later Monday Afternoon into Monday Night with the potential of one or two rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The first round potentially being in the mid-afternoon into early evening with a second round possible in the early evening through late Monday Night around the midnight timeframe. There will be sufficient heating for destabilization and sufficiently strong shear profiles to support severe weather. The key item will be the timing of the forcing of the trough and cold front as it moves through the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160717_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/17/16 Severe Weather Potential

July 17, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms possible this Sunday afternoon and early evening in the region from around 1-7 PM. Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island are most at risk but areas to the west could also see some isolated activity. Heavy downpours causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but strong winds and hail are possible in the strongest storms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor today’s strong thunderstorm and severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 15th, 2016 Severe Weather/Heat Potential

July 15, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms possible today across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Strong Winds, Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats. Threat is contingent on a stalled frontal boundary that causes last night’s isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Western and Central Massachusetts being enough focus to tap into sufficient instability and shear in the atmosphere..
..Also, it will be very hot and humid today and caution is advised on strenuous outdoor activities..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today with Ops at NWS Taunton Possible. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion detailing today’s thunderstorm potential and a Special Weather Statement on today’s heat and humidity..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/14/16 Severe Weather Potential

July 14, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon into early evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. There is the secondary threat for an isolated tornado in this area.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather eastward into Central New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the severe weather potential mainly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon into early evening. There is expected to be sufficient instability and shear with a trigger in the atmosphere for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development over Western New England. Factors that will affect the outlook are as follows:

1.) Any cloud cover and lingering shower/thunderstorm activity in the morning that could temper instability. Doppler Radar shows an area of showers moving northeast associated with a warm front pushing through Southern New England. Behind that front, satellite imagery shows good clearing to allow for destabilization in the atmosphere to allow for sufficient instability.
2.) Timing of the pre-frontal trough to act as a trigger in the atmosphere into Western New England. This timing is expected to be close enough to peak heating to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.

At this time, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with the primary threats of strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning, however, there is a secondary threat for an isolated tornado for any thunderstorms that form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms or as the line of thunderstorms organizes. If any occur, they will likely be of the short lived and smaller scale nature.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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