Storm Coordination Message #4 – Monday 1/23/17-Tuesday Morning 1/24/17 Coastal Storm Potential

January 23, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Significant Coastal Storm will impact Southern New England Monday into early Tuesday with heavy rain, strong winds in the interior and strong to damaging winds at the coast, the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide and the potential for accumulating snow and ice in Northwest and North-Central parts of Massachusetts. Timing is about 6 hours later bringing the strongest part of the storm Monday Evening into the overnight hours into early Tuesday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts in the 60-70 MPH range from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday with strongest winds early Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning. These winds will likely cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Eastern Essex and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts 50-60 MPH. The strongest winds occurring during Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning and these winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Additional wind headlines will likely be issued across much of Southern New England as we get closer to the storm event, specifically Wind Advisories for much of the rest of Eastern New England and could extend to much of the NWS Taunton coverage area. These strong winds outside the High Wind Warning area could bring isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heavy rainfall of 2-3″ with higher amounts possible in areas where heavy rain trains over the same area. This could bring some urban and poor drainage flooding to portions of the region and small river and stream flooding if amounts of more than 3″ occur in a short enough period of time..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 PM Monday Afternoon through 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Franklin, Western Hampshire, and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut for 1-2″ of snow and 0.25″-0.50″ of ice. Concern has increased since the last update on icing and possible ice storm like conditions but this remains highly uncertain given questions on what the predominant precip type will be. There may also be a period of light wintry mix overnight Sunday Evening in this area and a Special Weather Statement has been issued but the main wintry precipitation is expected late Monday Afternoon into early Tuesday Morning..
..Astronomical tides are very low on Monday Evening and somewhat higher on Tuesday Morning but still on the low side. The seas and wave action may bring some minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide along East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands depending on the strongest winds and fetch over the region. Given the later timing, the higher tide conditions may not happen until Tuesday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 5-6 PM Monday Evening and could last into at least a portion of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Self-Activation maybe needed Tuesday Morning for any coastal flood concerns depending on the speed of the storm system through the region and whether Ops continue through the entire overnight hours..

This is the fourth in a series of coordination messages posted this weekend on a significant coastal storm that will impact the region. The headlines depict the current potential impacts from this storm system which is multi-faceted in nature. There are a number of key details that need to be worked out at this juncture as well as some items that are very high confidence at this time. They are the following:

1.) The very strong to damaging winds at the coast line remains very high confidence currently. This will bear watching for any extent of power outages. High Wind Watches remain in effect for Eastern Essex and Plymouth Counties Massachusetts from Monday Afternoon into Monday Night for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH. Wind Advisories will likely be issued for much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in future forecasts and possibly into much of the rest of Southern New England. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM Tuesday where sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages with the strongest winds late Monday Afternoon into Tuesday Morning.
2.) How much snow and ice can occur in far inland areas of Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts. Currently, a Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 PM Monday Afternoon through 7 AM Tuesday Morning for Franklin, Western Hampshire, and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut for 1-2″ of snow and 0.25″-0.50″ of ice. There has been some more concern in current models where the icing may reach the 0.50″ of radial ice criteria for an ice storm and this will bear close watching.
3.) Confidence has increased in widespread heavy rainfall of 2-3″ with the potential for higher amounts in bands across a portion of Eastern New England. This has resulted in flood watches being posted for Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning.
4.) Tides will be astronomically low but the easterly fetch and the strength of the winds may compensate enough if there is enough of a surge to result in minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide pending the strength of the strongest winds. The tide Monday Evening is about 1 foot lower than Tuesday Morning and the speed of the coastal storm and its coincidence with high tide will determine the extent of any minor coastal flooding and these details could still change as a 6-12 hour time difference will change the extent of any coastal flooding. Currently, timing is 6 hours later and is actually timed between the high tide cycles but it may mean that minor coastal flooding could occur more on the Tuesday Morning high tide versus the Monday Evening high tide and will continued to be monitored.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 5-6 PM Monday Evening and could last into at least a portion of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Self-Activation maybe needed Tuesday Morning for any coastal flood concerns depending on the speed of the storm system through the region and whether Ops continue through the entire overnight hours. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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