Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon into early evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. There is the secondary threat for an isolated tornado in this area.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a potential upgrade to a slight risk for severe weather in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2 PM to monitor this severe weather potential..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the severe weather potential mainly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon into early evening. There is expected to be sufficient instability and shear with a trigger in the atmosphere for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development over Western New England. Factors that will affect the outlook are as follows:

1.) Any cloud cover and lingering shower/thunderstorm activity in the morning that could temper instability.
2.) Timing of the trigger in the atmosphere into Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2 PM to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be sent by 800 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160713_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of interior Southern New England from midday through early evening Thursday. Heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail..
..Threat remains contingent on a trigger in the atmosphere to set off high instability induced from intense heat and humidity over the area and the ability of the high instability over the area to overcome what is still currently expected to be weak levels of wind shear in the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Thursday..

Intense heat and humidity coupled with an impulse in the atmosphere will lead to isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms over much of interior Southern New England today. While wind shear profiles are weak, high levels of instability in the atmosphere, forcing from the impulse and the winds that are available should be sufficient for strong thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall having the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the main threats with a secondary threat for hail and strong to damaging winds in the strongest storms. The threat timeframe is after noon today lasting through early evening. Key items for any strong to severe thunderstorm potential is that the impulse in the atmosphere tracks into Southern New England at the time of peak heating as currently expected and that the impulse coupled with high instability can overcome weak winds aloft for strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon today. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible across much of interior Southern New England from midday through early evening Thursday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..Threat will be contingent on a trigger in the atmosphere to set off high instability induced from intense heat and humidity over the area and the ability of the high instability over the area to overcome what is currently expected to be weak levels of wind shear in the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible as early as 11 AM Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also across much of Southern New England late this afternoon through tonight. Strong to Damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather through much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. Threat timeframe is between 500 PM Friday Evening through 100 AM Saturday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today at the latest lasting through early Saturday Morning..

The potential exists for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern New England later this afternoon into the early overnight hours. The best chance for severe weather is across Western Massachusetts into Northern Connecticut but could affect much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of this message reflect the current thinking.

The key questions for the potential for severe weather is how much instability develops and can that level of instability be maintained passed peak heating hours as well as the timing of stronger wind shear, favorable jet dynamics, and cooling of air aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere. If instability is maintained through the evening and early overnight hours with better jet dynamics and cooling aloft, that would favor more numerous strong to severe thunderstorms and the potential for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning. This will be the only message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

NWS Taunton declared the week of Monday 6/20/16 through Friday 6/24/16 Lightning Safety Awareness Week and issued Public Information Statements daily over this past week on Lightning Safety Rules. A link to the NOAA/NWS Lightning Safety Web Page and a link to the NWS Taunton Public Information Statements issued over the course of this week for Lightning Safety Awareness Week can be seen below:

NOAA/NWS Lightning Safety Web Page:
http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements for Lightning Safety Awareness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_week_6_20_16_6_24_16.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..The following is a message on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 14 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..Unlike last year which featured a nor’easter type coastal storm with heavy rain and strong winds affecting much of Field Day weekend, conditions will be sunny and pleasant on Friday and Saturday with some heat and humidity working into the region on Sunday for the second half of Field Day. There is no threat for thunderstorms over the course of Field Day Weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s with low humidity Friday, low to mid 80s and low humidity on Saturday with mid to upper 80s and a bit more humidity on Sunday and low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s each evening. Operators and people setting up Amateur Radio Field Day sites should assure they drink plenty of liquids but beyond that it should be an excellent weekend weather wise for this event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..No SKYWARN Activation or Ops at NWS Taunton are expected during the 2016 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend..

There are a large number of Amateur Radio Field Day sites across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area and adjacent NWS Coverage Areas. Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: http://fd.ema.arrl.org/

Normally, we send out a series of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend messages but given the lack of weather, this will be the only message regarding the weather for Amateur Radio Field Day weekend. Again, weather conditions are calling for sunny and warm conditions with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Friday and in the 80s both Saturday and Sunday and a bit more humidity on Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s each evening. Again, no thunderstorm activity is expected.

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

While the lack of weather makes this less important, Field Day sites are still encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference *NEW-ENG3* Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

This will be the only Amateur Radio Field Day coordination message regarding weather conditions for the Amateur Radio Field Day weekend event.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..A Marginal risk for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms overnight tonight through early Tuesday Morning particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..While the more favorable environment is in New York State, where a line of strong to severe thunderstorms has formed, some short range models are indicating the possibility for increased instability overnight over parts of Southern New England particularly in Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and this could result in a conditional threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with that line despite the unfavorable timing of the thunderstorm activity during overnight hours if it can maintain its intensity..
..There is a secondary threat for thunderstorms in Southeast Coastal Massachusetts Tuesday Afternoon and early evening but this appears to be a general thunderstorm risk versus the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity overnight. Utilization of software or NOAA Weather Radio tone alert systems for any Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued overnight is advised if the line of thunderstorms can make it into portions of Southern New England. Below is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook..

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Greatest severe weather potential is southwest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over Southwest Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut depending on the warm front position between now and 10 PM tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk for severe weather over West-Central Connecticut and Southwest Massachusetts with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Early Sunday Morning between 5-10 AM timeframe, depending on sufficient forcing via a cold front, level of moisture and instability, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the 5-10 AM timeframe of Sunday Morning particularly in Southeast New England..
..During the day Sunday as conditions clear up from any morning showers and thunderstorms, strong wind gusts under wind advisory criteria of roughly 40 MPH may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton look increasingly unlikely at this time given level of uncertainty and the likelihood of severe weather to be isolated in nature..

The overall threat for severe weather has been reduced across the area tonight through Sunday Morning as the headlines of the coordination message indicate but it will still be monitored. A warm front remains southwest of the region late this afternoon with the warmer and more humid conditions remaining to the southwest as the complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms moved through the area this afternoon ahead of this warm front. This warm front could still eventually pull northeast through Southern New England and this may set the stage for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the southwest part of the NWS Taunton coverage area between now and 10 PM but the greatest threat appears even further southwest of these locations towards the New York City area and Pennsylvania.

As we get into the overnight into Sunday Morning, the warm front is still expected to move past the region and conditions will become more humid with dewpoints in the 60s and the cold front approaching as we get into Sunday Morning between 5-10 AM. Models are indicating good instability and strong wind shear. Main issue will be the amount of moisture available and the cold frontal timing being in the early morning period along with forcing and how much of a trigger the cold front will be. This will be the last timeframe for possible isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Models indicate Southeast New England maybe at more risk but all areas should monitor.

Once the cold front passes, skies will clear and it will be sunny and cool but strong northwest wind gusts of around 40 MPH will occur and these winds behind the front could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Right now, winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria but will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton look increasingly unlikely at this time given level of uncertainty and the likelihood of severe weather to be isolated in nature. This may be the last coordination message on the weekend weather unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for that communication. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Complex scenario regarding severe weather potential for Southern New England from late Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western-Central Connecticut and Western Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather with a marginal risk for severe weather through much of the rest of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..A complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area late this morning through mid-afternoon. The biggest threat with this complex is frequent lightning and heavy rain but cannot rule out an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two within the complex. After that time, between 4-8 PM, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible particularly in West-Central Connecticut and Western Massachusetts though other areas should monitor. Finally, we can’t rule out a final round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the 5-10 AM timeframe of Sunday Morning if there is sufficient moisture return given instability and wind shear parameters Sunday Morning ahead of a cold front particularly in Southeast New England..
..A Wind Advisory may also be needed for portions of Southern New England for Sunday Afternoon into early evening with strong northwest winds behind the cold front and the possibility of isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible but given high uncertainty, self-activation will be utilized unless a more defined or high potential timeframe for possible severe thunderstorm potential can be determined..

As stated in the headlines, complex scenario and low confidence in the possibility of severe weather in portions of Southern New England in the Saturday midday through Sunday Morning timeframe. At 1010 AM, a complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms over East-Central New York will move through the region between late this morning through mid-afternoon. The main threat with this complex is frequent lightning and heavy rainfall though an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with strong winds and hail.

After this complex moves through the area, the threat for severe weather between 4-8 PM over Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut will be determined by the amount of clearing that occurs, the position of the warm front and the level of moisture in the atmosphere. Isolated to Scattered Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in New York State and Pennsylvania but may stay in this region and southwest of Southern New England. There will be ample wind shear but the level of instability and moisture is in question for this timeframe pending the cloud cover from the prior showers and thunderstorms and the warm front position.

As we get into the overnight, the warm front should be past the region and conditions will become more humid with dewpoints in the 60s and the cold front approaching as we get into Sunday Morning. Models are indicating good instability and strong wind shear. Main issue will be the amount of moisture available and the cold frontal timing being in the early morning period. This will be the last timeframe for possible isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Models indicate Southeast New England maybe at more risk but all areas should monitor.

Once the cold front passes, skies will clear and it will be sunny and cool but strong northwest winds will occur and these winds behind the front could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. A Wind Advisory may be needed for portions of Southern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible but given high uncertainty, self-activation will be utilized unless a more defined or high potential timeframe for possible severe thunderstorm potential can be determined. Another coordination message will be posted by 600 PM. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Another Round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across portions of Southern New England as cold air in the atmosphere and one last upper level disturbance swings through the area. For today, the greatest risk is along and south of the Mass Pike but all areas should monitor for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Strong Winds, Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM today to monitor the severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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