Storm Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 12/29/16-Friday Morning 12/30/16 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines along with strong wind gusts leading to the potential of isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are also possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas as well..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM Friday for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and Western Essex counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday Morning to 4 AM Friday Morning for 2-5″ of snow and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This area continues to have the highest level of uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs etc. but this reflects the current thinking..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts possible. Other areas around the High Wind Watch could also experience strong winds and are covered under the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory products where issued and a Wind Advisory may be needed for areas of Southeast New England..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation but this is currently expected to be below advisory levels if there is any significant accumulation at all. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning..
A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening and the overnight hours into early Friday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking with portions of Northern and Western Massachusetts with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories replacing the Winter Storm Watch area. Strong to damaging winds are also a concern, particularly in Northeast Massachusetts where a High Wind Watch is now posted for Thursday Evening into the overnight hours though strong winds to Wind Advisory level could be seen across much of Southern New England as the coordination message headlines indicate. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:
1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines along with strong wind gusts leading to the potential of isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are also possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas as well..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM Friday for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut and Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and Western Essex counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday Morning to 4 AM Friday Morning for 2-5″ of snow and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This area continues to have the highest level of uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs etc. but this reflects the current thinking..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts possible. Other areas around the High Wind Watch could also experience strong winds and are covered under the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory products where issued and a Wind Advisory may be needed for areas of Southeast New England..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation but this is currently expected to be below advisory levels if there is any significant accumulation at all. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning..
A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening and the overnight hours into early Friday Morning. The headlines depict the latest thinking with portions of Northern and Western Massachusetts with Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories replacing the Winter Storm Watch area. Strong to damaging winds are also a concern, particularly in Northeast Massachusetts where a High Wind Watch is now posted for Thursday Evening into the overnight hours though strong winds to Wind Advisory level could be seen across much of Southern New England as the coordination message headlines indicate. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:
1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 10 AM and Noon Thursday likely lasting through 3 or 4 AM Friday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box