Hello to all…
..First Winter Storm of the Season for Southern New England to bring a Wintry Mix of precipitation. Given the wintry mix, snow and ice amounts could still change as we get closer to this winter storm event but tough travel conditions are expected on Tuesday especially during the Tuesday Morning Commute through midday Tuesday. There is also an increased concern for icing problems in extreme Western Massachusetts and possibly northern and western portions of the current Winter Weather Advisory area..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Monday Evening through 7 AM Tuesday Morning with a Winter Storm Watch in effect from Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow with the highest amounts closest to the Vermont border and icing of one-quarter to one-half inch which could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Monday Evening through 7 PM Tuesday Evening for Eastern Franklin, Northern Worcester, Central and Northern Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts closest to the New Hampshire border and the lower amounts in southern parts of the advisory area with up to one-quarter inch ice accretion and possibly isolated higher amounts in higher terrain locations. In locations where one-quarter inch of icing can occur or isolated higher amounts, isolated tree and wire damage and isolated power outages are possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Monday Evening through 1 PM Tuesday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent and Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Southern Worcester, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 0.5-2″ of snow and sleet with locally higher amounts and a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice in southern portions of the advisory area with one tenth to one-quarter inch of icing in northern portions of this advisory area especially in Northern Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur for this winter storm with monitoring starting around 5 AM Tuesday lasting through early Tuesday Evening. At this time after consultation with NWS Taunton, we will continue with a heightened SKYWARN Self-Activation posture with the possibility for a short-fused Ops at NWS Taunton activation if necessary but currently not proceed with Ops at NWS Taunton at this time..
The first winter storm of the season will affect Southern New England with a wintry mix of precipitation. The headlines depict the current thoughts on this storm situation and there have been some changes to the current snow, sleet and ice amounts forecasted. The biggest change to the forecast is to have lower snowfall amounts but higher sleet and ice amounts. The biggest concern is across the Eastern slopes of the Berkshires which includes Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties of Massachusetts where ice amounts could reach up to 1/2″ of radial ice and this could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and a Winter Storm Watch has now been issued to cover this potential from Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon in addition to the Winter Weather Advisory for the overnight hours late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. A secondary concern for this icing potential is across the remainder of Western and Central Massachusetts, parts of Northern Connecticut and interior Northeast Massachusetts where icing amounts could reach up to 1/4″ and may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for this area and icing will be monitored closely in this area. Other areas of the Winter Weather Advisory could receive a light icing that will be an issue confined to slowing travel versus any potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage.
Snow and ice amounts and precipitation type changeover and timing will likely continue to fluctuate as future model runs get a better handle on these items but the available data has locked on to the current scenario as depicted above. Some slight adjustments to ice accumulations may continue to be made as the storm approaches. While there are likely to be bigger winter storms than the one slated for late Monday Evening into Tuesday Evening particularly across Eastern New England, this storm will cause travel impacts especially during the Tuesday Morning Commute through midday Tuesday and the situation will need to be monitored in case a prolonged period of freezing rain develops particularly in the Winter Storm Watch area and in any of the northern and western parts of the advisory area which could increase the storm impact. Spotter reports on snow and ice amounts and precipitation type changeover and where they occur will be critical in monitoring the storm impacts.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur for this winter storm with monitoring starting around 5 AM Tuesday lasting through early Tuesday Evening. At this time after consultation with NWS Taunton, we will continue with a heightened SKYWARN Self-Activation posture with the possibility for a short-fused Ops at NWS Taunton activation if necessary but currently not proceed with Ops at NWS Taunton at this time. This will likely be the final storm coordination message on this storm event unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated or time allows and a significant change to the storm situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snow and Ice Map and a link to the NWS Taunton Facebook slide show on this winter storm:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snow/Ice Amount and Probability Graphics (It is noted that as of 800 AM, the most likely snowfall map has been corrected.):
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.923161544444884/923160531111652/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Read more
