Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 6/11/16-Sunday 6/12/16 Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential
Hello to all..
..Greatest severe weather potential is southwest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over Southwest Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut depending on the warm front position between now and 10 PM tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk for severe weather over West-Central Connecticut and Southwest Massachusetts with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Early Sunday Morning between 5-10 AM timeframe, depending on sufficient forcing via a cold front, level of moisture and instability, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the 5-10 AM timeframe of Sunday Morning particularly in Southeast New England..
..During the day Sunday as conditions clear up from any morning showers and thunderstorms, strong wind gusts under wind advisory criteria of roughly 40 MPH may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton look increasingly unlikely at this time given level of uncertainty and the likelihood of severe weather to be isolated in nature..
The overall threat for severe weather has been reduced across the area tonight through Sunday Morning as the headlines of the coordination message indicate but it will still be monitored. A warm front remains southwest of the region late this afternoon with the warmer and more humid conditions remaining to the southwest as the complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms moved through the area this afternoon ahead of this warm front. This warm front could still eventually pull northeast through Southern New England and this may set the stage for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the southwest part of the NWS Taunton coverage area between now and 10 PM but the greatest threat appears even further southwest of these locations towards the New York City area and Pennsylvania.
As we get into the overnight into Sunday Morning, the warm front is still expected to move past the region and conditions will become more humid with dewpoints in the 60s and the cold front approaching as we get into Sunday Morning between 5-10 AM. Models are indicating good instability and strong wind shear. Main issue will be the amount of moisture available and the cold frontal timing being in the early morning period along with forcing and how much of a trigger the cold front will be. This will be the last timeframe for possible isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Models indicate Southeast New England maybe at more risk but all areas should monitor.
Once the cold front passes, skies will clear and it will be sunny and cool but strong northwest wind gusts of around 40 MPH will occur and these winds behind the front could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Right now, winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria but will be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton look increasingly unlikely at this time given level of uncertainty and the likelihood of severe weather to be isolated in nature. This may be the last coordination message on the weekend weather unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for that communication. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all..
..Greatest severe weather potential is southwest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over Southwest Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut depending on the warm front position between now and 10 PM tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk for severe weather over West-Central Connecticut and Southwest Massachusetts with a marginal risk for severe weather for the rest of Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Early Sunday Morning between 5-10 AM timeframe, depending on sufficient forcing via a cold front, level of moisture and instability, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the 5-10 AM timeframe of Sunday Morning particularly in Southeast New England..
..During the day Sunday as conditions clear up from any morning showers and thunderstorms, strong wind gusts under wind advisory criteria of roughly 40 MPH may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton look increasingly unlikely at this time given level of uncertainty and the likelihood of severe weather to be isolated in nature..
The overall threat for severe weather has been reduced across the area tonight through Sunday Morning as the headlines of the coordination message indicate but it will still be monitored. A warm front remains southwest of the region late this afternoon with the warmer and more humid conditions remaining to the southwest as the complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms moved through the area this afternoon ahead of this warm front. This warm front could still eventually pull northeast through Southern New England and this may set the stage for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the southwest part of the NWS Taunton coverage area between now and 10 PM but the greatest threat appears even further southwest of these locations towards the New York City area and Pennsylvania.
As we get into the overnight into Sunday Morning, the warm front is still expected to move past the region and conditions will become more humid with dewpoints in the 60s and the cold front approaching as we get into Sunday Morning between 5-10 AM. Models are indicating good instability and strong wind shear. Main issue will be the amount of moisture available and the cold frontal timing being in the early morning period along with forcing and how much of a trigger the cold front will be. This will be the last timeframe for possible isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Models indicate Southeast New England maybe at more risk but all areas should monitor.
Once the cold front passes, skies will clear and it will be sunny and cool but strong northwest wind gusts of around 40 MPH will occur and these winds behind the front could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Right now, winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory criteria but will be monitored.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor much of the severe weather potential through this weekend. Ops at NWS Taunton look increasingly unlikely at this time given level of uncertainty and the likelihood of severe weather to be isolated in nature. This may be the last coordination message on the weekend weather unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for that communication. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box