Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southern New Hampshire and Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts potentially extending into interior Connecticut and Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 300 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting into late Wednesday Evening..

Heat and humidity will be entrenched over the region on Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region from the west and north over Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Heating will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. The timing of the cold front and the strength of the wind shear profiles over the area remain in question but based on the past few model runs conditions appear to be sufficient for for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms being likely especially across Southern New Hampshire, Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and could extend into interior Connecticut and extreme Northwest Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The timeframe for severe weather is from 3-11 PM Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 300 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting into late Wednesday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather potential for today. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across Southern New Hampshire and Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts potentially extending into interior Connecticut and Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night..

Heat and humidity has returned to the region today and will increase a bit further on Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region from the west and north over Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Heating will allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. The one question will be the timing of the cold front and the strength of the wind shear profiles over the area. Latest model runs have brought in a bit more wind shear for the area which would allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms being possible to likely especially across Southern New Hampshire, Interior Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and could extend into interior Connecticut and Rhode Island. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New Hampshire, Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The timeframe for severe weather is from 3-11 PM Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather and expanded it eastward into Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and most of Connecticut with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Tuesday. The highest risk with thunderstorms at this time is heavy rainfall and flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly smaller rivers and streams, however, strong to Damaging winds, and hail are also threats with an isolated weak tornado also possible depending on the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover over the area for today..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from today through Wednesday afternoon for all of the NWS Taunton coverage area of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut and Southern New Hampshire except for Cape Cod and the Islands.
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM Tuesday Afternoon lasting through late Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Morning for flash flood potential especially in Eastern New England..

On Monday, the severe weather threat stayed south of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Heavy downpours during the evening commute caused some minor street flooding issues in the Boston area. Overnight, heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding and flash flooding remain confined to Southern Connecticut.

As we move into Tuesday, the slow moving cold front will continue to approach Eastern New York and New England. There will continue to be warm and humid conditions over the area. The extent of the severe weather potential will be determined by the following:

1.) Amount of cloud cover over the area for today. Overnight showers and thunderstorms have largely moved out of the area.
2.) Position of the cold front and its forcing mechanism and the timing of the front over the area.

At 1040 AM, satellite imagery showed breaks in the clouds over portions of Eastern New York and Western New England. There was no rapid, solid clearing occurring over the area but some sun is getting through the clouds offering some level of instability and destabilization. Moisture profiles and wind shear profiles are quite favorable for severe weather but the level of instability remains in question. Doppler Radar at 1040 AM showed an area of showers and thunderstorms over Central New York and Central Pennsylvania moving east-northeastwards and as this gradually gets closer to Eastern New York and Western New England, that could be a focal point for convection depending on its movement and timing into our coverage area. At this time, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are the most likely coverage we will see versus a widespread outbreak but if more clearing occurs, that could change the situation rapidly. At this time, the main threat for thunderstorms is the flash flood threat and heavy rainfall with flash flooding of urban areas and possibly small rivers and streams, however, noting the breaks in the clouds in the slight risk area, there is a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds, hail and possibly a weak tornado over localized areas. This will continue to be monitored closely.

As noted above, regardless of these two factors, thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding of poor drainage and urban areas and smaller rivers and streams are the highest potential weather hazard in localized areas over the NWS Taunton coverage area. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands through Wednesday Afternoon. Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with localized higher amounts where thunderstorms back build or train over the same area are possible. The flash flood threat will linger through early Wednesday Afternoon particularly over Eastern New England as the slow moving cold front finally pushes through Southern New England. Any severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon through Evening will evolve into more of a heavy rainfall threat overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out over this time period either.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM Tuesday Afternoon lasting through late Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Morning for flash flood potential especially in Eastern New England. The next coordination message will be issued by 1100 PM Tuesday Evening pending the evolution of SKYWARN Operations over the course of Tuesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407151446.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_15_14_am_graphic.jpg

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Threat overnight is more for heavy rainfall and flash flooding with a low risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with strong winds possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley west in a slight risk for severe weather with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Tuesday. The highest risk with thunderstorms at this time is heavy rainfall and flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly smaller rivers and streams, however, strong to Damaging winds, and hail are also threats with an isolated weak tornado also possible depending on the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover over the area for Tuesday..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Evening through Wednesday afternoon for all of the NWS Taunton coverage area of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Southern New Hampshire from Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton were executed for a few hours Monday Evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor flash flood potential overnight. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time between 1-4 PM Tuesday Afternoon lasting through late Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Morning for flash flood potential especially in Eastern New England..

On Monday, the severe weather threat stayed south of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Heavy downpours during the evening commute caused some minor street flooding issues in the Boston area. Overnight, there is the potential for heavier thunderstorms with the main threat of flash flooding to potentially effect portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with strong winds is possible but is a low risk. Given the timeframe for this may be as late as around midnight and the overnight hours, SKYWARN Self-Activation will be utilized to monitor the activity overnight.

As we move into Tuesday, the slow moving cold front will continue to approach Eastern New York and New England. There will continue to be warm and humid conditions over the area. The extent of the severe weather potential will be determined by the following:

1.) Amount of cloud cover over the area and any overnight showers and thunderstorms that may linger into Tuesday Morning.
2.) Position of the cold front and its forcing mechanism and the timing of the front over the area.

If there is sufficient clearing for destabilization and the front is close enough for forcing, that would mean a greater potential for severe weather in the region. If cloud cover remains over the area or the forcing from the cold front does not come in around or near peak heating, then the severe weather threat will be more muted. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley west in a slight risk for severe weather with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Tuesday.

Regardless of these two factors, thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding of poor drainage and urban areas and smaller rivers and streams are the highest potential weather hazard in localized areas over the NWS Taunton coverage area. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands through Wednesday Afternoon. The start time of the Flash Flood Watch for Southern New Hampshire is Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Afternoon. Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with localized higher amounts where thunderstorms back build or train over the same area are possible. The flash flood threat will linger through early Wednesday Afternoon particularly over Eastern New England as the slow moving cold front finally pushes through Southern New England. Any severe weather potential Tuesday Afternoon through Evening will evolve into more of a heavy rainfall threat overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The next coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely across much of Southern New England on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk of severe weather for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible..
..A Flash Flood Watch Has Been Issued from 2 PM This Afternoon through late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for the potential of back building thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This Flash Flood Watch could be extended eastward as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday..
..Additional potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on Tuesday as SPC has much of Southern New England in a 5% risk for severe weather. This will be contingent on cloud cover and the prior day’s convective activity. The threat could then continue for Eastern New England into Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..

Last night saw severe weather stay to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area over in Litchfield County Connecticut and Eastern New York but thunderstorms with heavy rainfall occurred in some parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Southwick, MA received 2.1″ of rain for the event with 1.3″ of rain coming in just a 70 minute period.

As we move into today, a slow moving cold front will be approaching Eastern New York and New England. At 900 AM, satellite imagery showed considerable breaks in the clouds over Southern New England. There will be warm and humid conditions over the area that will create a level of instability and with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles. As the slow moving cold front approaches the region, that will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. The timing is a bit uncertain though it now appears that thunderstorm development is now expected to hold off until after 400 PM though this will be monitored closely. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk of severe Weather for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible.

Any thunderstorms today across portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and if they back build over the same area, they could produce flash flooding. This could occur from Monday Afternoon through late Tuesday Night. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 2 PM this afternoon through late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for the potential of back building thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This Flash Flood Watch could be extended eastward as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Tuesday, SPC continues a 5% risk of severe weather across much of Southern New England and any thunderstorms will have the potential for heavy rainfall ad flooding. Tuesday has the potential to be a repeat of Monday with the severe weather threat potentially evolving into a flash flood threat as we get into Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. This will be contingent on cloud cover and the prior day’s convection. Further details on the threat for Tuesday will be defined in future severe weather coordination messages. There may also be a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms into Wednesday across parts of Eastern New England depending on the timing and speed of the slow moving cold front as well. This will also be discussed in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message issued on Monday’s severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.14_AM_Fcst.png

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Conditions continue to be monitored for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain quite likely across much of Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday and potentially extending into Eastern New England for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..

Conditions continued to be monitored for this evening for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion (#1358) for this area. That discussion is listed below:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1358.html

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut. We are closely monitoring based on Doppler Radar imagery as of 630 PM a cluster of severe thunderstorms approaching the Massachusetts and Connecticut border as well as other severe thunderstorm activity further west in Southeast New York. The watch statement info is listed below:

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415 Statement:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0415.html

NWS Taunton County Outline for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

As we move into Monday, a slow moving cold front will be approaching Eastern New York and New England. There will be warm and humid conditions over the area that will create a level of instability and with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles. As the slow moving cold front approaches the region, that will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. The timing is a bit uncertain. Storms could develop as early as Noon-1 PM or hold off on development until after 2-3 PM. This will be monitored closely. Also, the level of cloud cover and any upstream convection affecting the area overnight will affect the coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. At this time, even with an expected level of some cloud cover, isolate to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is likely across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible. Regarding heavy rainfall, the potential exists for a Flash Flood Watch to be required either for Monday’s potential thunderstorms and/or for Tuesday’s potential thunderstorms.

Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday with the severe weather threat potentially evolving into a flash flood threat as we get into Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. Further details on the threat for Tuesday will be defined in future severe weather coordination messages. There may also be a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms into Wednesday across parts of Eastern New England depending on the timing and speed of the slow moving cold front as well. This will also be discussed in future coordination messages.

SKYSKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic in PDF format and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.13_PM_Fcst.pdf

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..After another gorgeous weekend and end of last week, the weather will turn active again to start the new work week..
..An Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for late Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening in Southwest New Hampshire, far Western Massachusetts and extreme Western Connecticut. Strong Winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday and potentially extending into Eastern New England for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has 5% severe weather probabilities for Southern New England for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in far western portions of the area for late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..

After another period of gorgeous late week and weekend weather, the weather will turn active once again to start the work week. Another slow moving cold front will begin to impact the Northeast United States starting largely in New York and Pennsylvania on Sunday and then spreading into New England on Monday and Tuesday setting the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats.

For late Sunday Afternoon and evening, it is possible that an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could affect extreme Southwest New Hampshire, extreme Western Massachusetts an extreme Western Connecticut. The main threats for severe weather and flash flood potential across the NWS Taunton coverage area will be on Monday and Tuesday potentially extending into Wednesday in Eastern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in far western portions of the area for late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.13_AM_Fcst.png

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..Lack of trigger during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and late arriving line of what were strong to severe thunderstorms out in New York and Pennsylvania precluded any severe weather in the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Microburst found in Bedford Massachusetts from the Monday July 7th 2014 severe weather outbreak. Pictures from the severe weather from Monday can be sent to the pics@nsradio.org email address or as a reply to this email..
..For Wednesday, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible with strong winds, hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding but instability levels may not be as high as the past 2 days due to a large amount of mid-level dry air and again the triggering mechanism may remain west of our area. That being said, if thunderstorms can organize efficiently, wind shear levels aloft are very high and would allow for a threat for severe weather. This will be monitored through the day..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms for today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if thunderstorm coverage increases sufficiently..

The New York State and Pennsylvania area had a widespread severe weather outbreak Tuesday across their region. Across Southern New England, lack of a strong trigger was unable to tap the unstable atmosphere and favorable wind shear profiles resulting in a few scattered non-severe thunderstorms in the western part of the region. When the trigger mechanism provided by a trough and impulse across New York State arrived in western parts of our coverage area, it was well past peak heating, resulting in no severe weather across our region.

Regarding Monday’s severe weather outbreak, a microburst was classified in Bedford Massachusetts and towns surrounding Bedford such as Woburn, Winchester, Lexington, Burlington, Malden etc. likely had similar straight-line wind damage. The Public Information Statement and Local Storm Report from the Monday July 7th severe weather outbreak and a Photo Album of Damage pictures from the WX1BOX Facebook page appears below:

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Bedford Massachusetts Microburst:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407081904.nous41.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

For today, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible with strong winds, hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding but instability levels may not be as high as the past 2 days due to a large amount of mid-level dry air and again the triggering mechanism may remain west of our area. That being said, if thunderstorms can organize efficiently, wind shear levels aloft are very high and would allow for a threat for severe weather. This will be monitored through the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms for today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if thunderstorm coverage increases sufficiently. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton is initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..A sizable severe weather event Monday across Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts with wind damage, large hail, and some pockets of flash flooding. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are part of this message below..
..Another isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm event is expected today across portions of interior Southern New England but could affect areas to the coast as well. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The threat timeframe now has the potential to be later this afternoon into this evening versus earlier in the day and will now hinge on a trigger to tap into the favorably unstable environment for sufficient wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development and this will be monitored closely today. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic..
..Additional severe weather threats exist for Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week but will be contingent on the position of the cold front and if dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere mitigate any severe weather potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. Exact start timeframe needs to be defined on potential activation. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible on Wednesday..

A severe weather event across North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts resulted in considerable damage. Hardest hit areas include Bernardston, Warwick MA, Ashburnham and parts of Gardner closest to Ashburnham as well as Bedford, Woburn, Malden, Burlington, Concord by a golf country club, Medford, and Winchester. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page – Monday July 7th, 2014 – Severe Weather Outbreak Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

Taking a look at today’s severe weather potential, the upper level impulse that was responsible for severe weather on Monday pushed offshore early this morning just before daybreak. Satellite imagery shows sufficient clearing for heating and destabilization. Wind shear profiles are a bit stronger than yesterday across the region. The key factor on severe weather potential for today will be a trigger to tap into the favorable instability and wind shear profiles over the area and the timing of such a triggering mechanism. At this time, the best severe weather potential according to the models would be in the late afternoon and evening hours, however, a few showers popped up as of 725 AM on Radar in Pennsylvania which may signal somewhat earlier development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. This will bear close monitoring throughout today. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic.

Additional severe weather is possible particularly on Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week. This will be contingent on the position of the cold front and dry air in the mid-levels that mitigate any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. Exact start timeframe needs to be defined on potential activation. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible on Wednesday. This will be the last complete coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..A sizable severe weather event today across Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts with wind damage, large hail, and some pockets of flash flooding. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are part of this message below..
..Another isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm event is expected across portions of interior Southern New England but could affect areas to the coast as well. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The threat timeframe could be any time after Noon Tuesday. Some conditions on the threat will include a trigger to tap the unstable atmosphere and reasonably strong wind shear profiles as well as any cloud cover and leftover showers and thunderstorms overnight. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely as early as noon time Tuesday for the region. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page – Monday July 7th, 2014 – Severe Weather Outbreak Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more