Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Friday Night 1/23/15 through Saturday Evening 1/24/15 Coastal Winter Storm

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm On Track to Affect Portions of Southern New England with heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Mid-Afternoon High Tide..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from Midnight through 7 PM Saturday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Western Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations and the possibility for a trace of ice. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday for Western Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties for 4-6″ of snow. A slightly more northern track means that Western Franklin County Massachusetts will see snow amounts greater than 4″..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight through 7 PM Saturday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from 3 PM-Midnight Saturday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts of 50-55 MPH. Other coastal areas could be added to the Wind Advisory in future forecasts..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from Noon to 400 PM Saturday which is the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide for minor coastal flooding with a low risk for moderate coastal flooding..
..The National Weather Service in Gray Maine Has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Eastern Hillsborough County NH from 5 AM-10 PM Saturday for 4-8″ of snow and a Winter Weather Advisory for Cheshire and West-Central Hillsborough County NH for 3-6″ of snow. A link to that statement from NWS Gray is provided in this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around 7 AM lasting through Saturday Evening for this coastal storm potential..

A strong coastal storm will impact the region late tonight through Saturday Evening. During the day, model runs have kept the same timing with the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the region. In addition, model runs have kept with a slightly closer to the coast theme but there is still above average uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall based on current model trends. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:

1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system as well as the potential for sleet and freezing rain near the transition line. Previous thinking indicated more of wet snow to rain precipitation transition versus having a zone of mixed precipitation between the wet snow and rain. Latest models indicate a sleet/freezing rain threat near the transition line remains possible.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow. The headlines reflect current thinking.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and Nantucket is likely prompting a Wind Advisory for this area and models may be underdoing the strength of the winds given the rapid storm intensification and there could be some expansion of the Wind Advisory to other coastal areas and maybe southeast interior New England in future forecasts.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide with a low risk for pockets of moderate coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for this area from Noon-4 PM Saturday.

Future model trends will likely adjust warnings and advisories for the region. Since NWS Taunton Operations will commence early Saturday Morning, this will be the last coordination message for this coastal storm. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around 7 AM lasting through Saturday Evening for this coastal storm potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics as well as the NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

 

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm On Track to Affect Portions of Southern New England with heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Mid-Afternoon High Tide..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from Midnight through 7 PM Saturday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Western Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations and the possibility for a trace of ice. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday for Western Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties for 4-6″ of snow. A slightly more northern track means that Western Franklin County Massachusetts will see snow amounts greater than 4″..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight through 7 PM Saturday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from 3 PM-Midnight Saturday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts of 50-55 MPH. Other coastal areas could be added to the Wind Advisory in future forecasts..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from Noon to 400 PM Saturday which is the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide for minor coastal flooding with a low risk for moderate coastal flooding..
..The National Weather Service in Gray Maine Has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Eastern Hillsborough County NH from 5 AM-10 PM Saturday for 4-8″ of snow and a Winter Weather Advisory for Cheshire and West-Central Hillsborough County NH for 3-6″ of snow. A link to that statement from NWS Gray is provided in this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around 7 AM lasting through Saturday Evening for this coastal storm potential..

A strong coastal storm will impact the region late tonight through Saturday Evening. During the day, model runs have kept the same timing with the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the region. In addition, model runs have kept with a slightly closer to the coast theme but there is still above average uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall based on current model trends. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:

1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system as well as the potential for sleet and freezing rain near the transition line. Previous thinking indicated more of wet snow to rain precipitation transition versus having a zone of mixed precipitation between the wet snow and rain. Latest models indicate a sleet/freezing rain threat near the transition line remains possible.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow. The headlines reflect current thinking.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and Nantucket is likely prompting a Wind Advisory for this area and models may be underdoing the strength of the winds given the rapid storm intensification and there could be some expansion of the Wind Advisory to other coastal areas and maybe southeast interior New England in future forecasts.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide with a low risk for pockets of moderate coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for this area from Noon-4 PM Saturday.

Future model trends will likely adjust warnings and advisories for the region. Since NWS Taunton Operations will commence early Saturday Morning, this will be the last coordination message for this coastal storm. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence around 7 AM lasting through Saturday Evening for this coastal storm potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics as well as the NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

 

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