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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 Severe Weather Event

August 2, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..After today’s severe weather was confined largely to Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut, another conditional threat for severe weather with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists for portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts from Norfolk County Massachusetts northward. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat is contingent on another wave of low pressure/upper level system moving close enough to the area. Models have trended the system towards the Northeast portions of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. It is noted that shear profiles are stronger Tuesday than Monday. If sufficient destablization occurs with a trigger, there should be isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the northeast portions of the region. Threat timeframe is after 2 PM ET..
..SPC has portions of Southern New England in a ‘See Text’/5% severe weather risk category for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely on Tuesday. Further details will be posted in a coordination message issued by 8 AM Tuesday..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108012258.nwus51.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108011715.acus02.html

Also, here is the Monday August 1st Local Storm Report from today’s severe weather event:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108012258.nwus51.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A – Monday August 1st, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

August 1, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 1230 PM lasting through early evening for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms that will develop over the area this afternoon and evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Severe Weather Threat for Monday August 1st, 2011

August 1, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely this Afternoon and Evening across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Covering the entire region with a threat timeframe between 1 and 8 PM Today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as Noon Today..

At 630 AM Satellite Imagery shows mainly clear skies over Southern New England. A small complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is present over Southwest and South-Central New York spreading southeast. This is responsible for some cloud cover over Central New York that is also moving southeast. The cloud cover may clip parts of Western New England but overall heating and destablization is expected over the region setting up scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system and cold front that will swing through the region today. Wind shear profiles will not be as strong as some of the prior event this summer and are a bit marginal but combined with the expected instability and cooling temperatures aloft, scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area with a threat timeframe between 1-8 PM Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday anytime after Noon. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday August 1st 2011 Severe Weather Threat

July 31, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Monday Afternoon and Evening across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Covering the entire region with a threat timeframe between 1 and 8 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as Noon Monday..

An upper level low pressure system and associated cold front or trough will move through Southern New England during the time of max heating on Monday Afternoon and Evening. While there could be some mid and high level clouds to start the day, these are expected to move offshore and allow for heating and destablization across much of the region. Wind shear profiles will not be as strong as some of the prior event this summer and are a bit marginal but combined with the expected instability and cooling temperatures aloft, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area with a threat timeframe between 1-8 PM Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday anytime after Noon. Another coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday to update the threat. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107311733.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday July 29th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

July 29, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today with the greatest risk across Western and Central Massachusetts and Much of Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Slight Risk of Severe Weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. A more isolated risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm exists for areas of Southern New England outside the slight risk area..
..Amount of sunshine for heating and destablization and the timing of a line of thunderstorms in Western New York through the Great Lakes states will determine the extent of the severe weather threat today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today anytime after Noon or 1 PM today..

At 715 AM, Satellite imagery showed clouds over the region with some breaks in New York State with stronger clearing over Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Doppler Radar showed a line of thunderstorms from just west of the Finger Lakes in New York through Lake Erie, Southeast Michigan and Northeast Ohio. The extent of clearing to allow for destablization and the timing of this line of storm activity will ultimately determine the severe weather threat over the region.

SPC has maintained the Slight Risk area for much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut for today. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out outside of the slight risk area in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Given the current line configuration in Western New York and the Great Lakes states, the primary risks is for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding. Any threat for supercells appears lower than last night but will need to be watched carefully if more heating develops and individual cells form versus the line configuration that is currently being seen on radar.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible likely this afternoon and evening anytime after Noon or 1 PM today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 29th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

July 29, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Friday Afternoon and Evening in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut where NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Friday. A more isolated severe weather threat exists for areas of the NWS Taunton County Warning area outside of the slight risk area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, an Isolated supercell, and urban to poor drainage flooding to possibly isolated flash flooding are the primary threats..
..Degree of threat will hinge on amount of sunshine and destablization that can occur over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Friday Afternoon and Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post-Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 26th, 2011 Severe Weather Summary

July 27, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak Slams Portions of Hampden County Massachusetts specifically the Chicopee, Springfield, Ludlow, Wilbraham and Monson Mass. area. Damage was largely trees and wires down with trees and wires falling on houses and cars. Holyoke, Mass also had damage right along the Connecticut River near Lyman Street where a weakened mill structure was blown out/destroyed in the area. Many Large Hail reports were also received..
..An additional area of significant damage was reported in Willimantic CT with trees down and this also affected portions of Windham, CT. The worst damage was south of Valley Street in Willimantic, Ct affecting Bridge and Spring street and several other locations. Roof damage was reported in the areas as well..
..Pictures, Video and additional damage information is requested so that this information can be given to MEMA, FEMA, NWS officials and the media. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators that give the damage and pictures to us. They can be emailed to rmacedo at rcn dot com or kd1cy at comcast dot net (emails put this way to prevent spamming)..
..NWS will survey the damage in Western Massachusetts Wednesday. If time allows, they will also review the damage in the Willimantic, CT area..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report for this event. An update will be sent on this Severe Weather Outbreak that affected the region on Wednesday Evening..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report 7/26/11 Severe Weather Outbreak:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1A – Tuesday July 26th, 2011 Severe Weather Update

July 26, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Thunderstorm Watch #686 has been issued until 7 PM for areas just west of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. It is likely that this watch will get expanded eastward as western parts of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area have broken out into sunshine and the marine clouds should fade and allow sunshine across Eastern New England particularly away from the coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton started at 1215 PM. Weather should get active in western parts of the area starting around 2 PM and should progress eastward through about 8 or 9 PM this evening. This will be the last coordination message issued on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #686 Information..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1107261536.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #686:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0686.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 26th, 2011

July 26, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely this afternoon and evening across Southern New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts north of the Mass. Pike with potential for more isolated strong to severe thunderstorms south of the Mass. Pike. Damaging Winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather this afternoon into evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 2 PM Today..

At 730 AM, Satellite imagery showed some clouds over Southern New England that should burn off and move east as New York State is largely clear and this should allow sun to break out over the region and this should allow the atmosphere to destablize. A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will then work its way into New England during this afternoon and evening. This disturbance will have strong wind shear profiles to work with and the atmosphere should destabilize sufficiently for the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly along and north of the Mass. Pike in Massachusetts and into Vermont and New Hampshire with Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. SPC has placed this area in a Slight Risk for severe weather. A more isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat exists south of the Mass. Pike. Activity could begin as early as 2-3 PM lasting through evening or as late as 5 PM lasting through evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 2 PM today. This will be the only complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Heat and Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – July 22nd, 2011

July 22, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity will peak today over Southern New England..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Noon to 6 PM Today for Northern Connecticut, Norfolk, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Northern and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Providence, Kent and Washington Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 6 PM Today for the remainder of Middlesex, Essex, Worcester, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Hillsborough county New Hampshire..
..Even outside the Heat Warning/Advisory areas, intense heat and humidity is expected particularly away from the coastal waters and anyone spending a prolonged period of time outdoors should use caution and drink plenty of liquids..
..Convective chances over the next couple days look difficult to predict at this time. There is an outside chance for Mesoscale Convective System development tonight into Saturday Morning. Later on Saturday into early Sunday Morning temperatures aloft will cool while it will still be very warm at the surface though not as warm as the past 2 days, this may also allow for convection. Probabilities look low and SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are not anticipated at this time though SKYWARN Self-Activation may be needed and the situation will be monitored closely. Below is the NWS Taunton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement, Heat Safety Rules and Area Forecast Discussion that discusses convective chances over the region later today through Early Sunday..

NWS Taunton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS/NOAA Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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