Hello to all..

..Another Winter Storm to impact Southern New England Monday Morning into Tuesday Morning bringing another round of moderate to heavy snow, strong winds and the potential for coastal flooding in Southeast New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday Morning to Tuesday Morning for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence, Eastern Kent, Bristol and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 4-7″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with wind gusts up to 30 MPH..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Monday Morning to Tuesday Morning for Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for 6-10″ of snow and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with wind gusts up to 45-50 MPH. Given prior wet snow and strong winds with additional snow, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage are possible in this area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the late Monday Morning/Midday High Tide Cycle for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket for minor to moderate coastal flooding meaning the potential for flooded shore roads and road closures at the time of that high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm conditions Monday Morning into Tuesday Morning. Will request a number of call-up nets on various SKYWARN Repeaters in the Winter Storm Watch/Coastal Flood Watch areas..

Another winter storm will affect portions of Southern New England. The headlines of the message reflect the current thinking on this upcoming winter storm. Some of the key items of uncertainty at this time include:

1.) How far west for the heavier snowfall
As we have seen in prior winter storms in this 2015-2016 winter, we have seen storm tracks on model runs indicate just southeast New England areas affected only to have the western cutoff of the heavier snow retrograde back further west into other parts of Southern New England. This will be a key item to be monitored in future model runs and we have seen a trend west here with this storm as reflected in the initial Winter Storm Watches being in Southeast New England and now expanded into much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

2.) Ocean Effect Snow band setup
Ocean effect snow bands and their setup could result in localized areas of heavier snow where these bands setup which is difficult to pinpoint. The greatest risk areas are over East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

3.) Strong Winds and Impact on Trees and Wires Given Prior Wet Snowfall
The snow for Monday shouldn’t be quite as heavy and wet as Friday but the snow that falls and any strong winds that occur particularly at the coast coupled with any weakened trees and wires from the Friday storm event could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This potential bears watching.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm conditions Monday Morning into Tuesday Morning. Will request a number of call-up nets on various SKYWARN Repeaters in the Winter Storm Watch/Coastal Flood Watch areas. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch, Coastal Storm Watch, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Map and

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Major Winter Storm Brings a Widespread 6-12″ snowfall with isolated higher amounts across much of Central and Eastern New England. The heavy wet snowfall with some strong wind gusts near 40 MPH and exceeding 40 MPH near the coast caused widespread pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages. In Massachusetts alone, over 80,000 were still without power as of 1130 PM and at the peak of the storm over 100,000 people were without power in that state alone..
..Several hundred reports of wet snow damage and snowfall reports were handled over a 16 hour period via SKYWARN Self-Activation protocols. Anyone with pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter for the report unless otherwise indicated and the pictures will be forwarded to Non-Governmental Organizations, Emergency Management and the media in addition to the National Weather Service in Taunton unless otherwise indicated..
..Another post storm coordination message may follow later in the day on Saturday or on Sunday. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement, WX1BOX Storm Log and WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album of Winter Storm Pictures and Damage..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html (Latest Report)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1602060109.nwus51.html (Last Damage Report LSR)

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_2_5_16.txt

NWS Taunton Facebook Photo Album for Friday 2/5/16 Major Winter Snowstorm:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1128299217204095.1073741878.216287391738620&type=3

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Winter Storm Will Impact Southern New England with a heavy wet snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH which may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Impacts to be felt further inland with possibly more rain along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island lowering snow amounts along the south coast..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM to 3 PM Friday for Windham County Connecticut, Providence County RI, and Northern Bristol and Northern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts north and west through Worcester County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The heavy wet snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts especially at the coast may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM Friday for Southern Bristol, Eastern and Southern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts depending on when the changeover from rain to snow occurs..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut for 2-4 inches of snow..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm for the region. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible..

Latest computer model trends have been closer to Southern New England. The message headlines reflect the latest thinking on warnings and advisories. South Coastal New England is expecting less snow based on a slower transition from rain to snow. If that transition is faster than expected, that could lead to heavier snow amounts and if slower could lead to less snow amounts. Areas up through Worcester and Northeast Massachusetts now are at risk for the heavier and accumulating snow with areas as far west as Hartford, CT and Springfield, MA now expecting to receive 2-4 inches of snow. Given the wet heavy snow that is expected, any locations that receive more than 4″ of snow have the potential to see isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages and this will be monitored closely. In addition, wind gusts to 40 MPH with possibly slightly higher gusts at the coast coupled with the wet snow clinging to tree and power lines may assist with the isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the region starting early Friday Morning with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. Depending on the storm evolution, this is likely to be the last complete storm coordination message on this event unless time allows for a complete coordination message or time allows for a shortened coordination message and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Accumulation Map Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..A Winter Storm has potential to bring accumulating wet snow to Southeast New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island Late Tonight through Friday Afternoon for 4-6″ of snow and isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and this may cause isolated tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the region starting early Friday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible..

Last night brought strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to Southern New England with mild temperatures. A complete list of SKYWARN reports from the storm last night can be seen via the following link:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_2_3_16.txt

This storm system has moved offshore and will swing a cold front through Southern New England. This front will stall and a coastal storm system will form and track towards Southeast New England. Similar to the major winter storm/blizzard that affected Southeast New England on Saturday 1/23/16, this storm system will have a sharp cutoff in precipitation on the northwest fringe. The trend of the models has been closer to the coast and close enough now to affect Southeast Massachusetts and South-Central Rhode Island with a significant wet snowfall around the 6″ or potentially a bit more than 6″ range. The snow will be heavy and wet and will cling to to trees and power lines and may cause isolated tree and wire damage and power outages. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for late tonight through Friday Afternoon for Southeast Massachusetts and South-Central Rhode Island. Areas of Norfolk County and just south of Boston could possibly see advisory level snowfall.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this winter storm over the region starting early Friday Morning with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infogrpahic and Snowfall Accumulation Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.942868225807549/942867149140990/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

The SKYWARN Training 2016 Schedule continues to be worked. The latest SKYWARN Training Schedule Information can be seen via the following link:

SKYWARN Training Schedule – 2016:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

Again, the schedule continues to be worked and additional SKYWARN Training classes will be added to the schedule over the next 4-6 weeks. Please check back for updates and additional postings on the SKYWARN Training Schedule will be posted to the email list, web site and social media.

On an off-topic note, the Boston Athletic Association (BAA) Amateur Radio communications committee is continuing to look for additional Amateur Radio Operators to fill positions for the 2016 Boston Marathon. The link to volunteer is as follows below:
http://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/event-information/volunteer-information.aspx

For Amateur Radio Operators with questions on volunteering for the Boston Marathon, you can use the email address contact@hamradioboston.org to contact the committee for information. This same link is used for general volunteers outside of Amateur Radio as well. If people are interested in volunteering not only for Amateur Radio positions but for non-Amateur Radio positions, use the same link to pre-register. The registration deadline is Tuesday February 9th. If you are unclear whether you will be able to volunteer for the marathon but have an interest, pre-registering now would be best and just indicate any potential change to your status after pre-registering.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

There will be a presentation regarding El Nino and Its Impacts on Southern New England Weather Presentation, today, Monday January 25th, 2016 at 7 PM at the North Providence Public Library in North Providence Rhode Island. The presentation will be given by David Vallee Hydrologist-In-Charge of the Northeast River Forecast Center. All are welcome to attend. We apologize for the late notice on publicity understanding this notice is going out the same day as the presentation. We were notified of the presentation this weekend due to Dave’s travel schedule this month and with volunteer operations for the blizzard, this was the earliest to get a notification out. If people have a free night they are looking to fill, this will be an interesting and informative presentation on El Nino and how it affects Southern New England weather.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands and Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island, Northern Connecticut, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible and wind gusts to 45 MPH which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Norfolk, Suffolk, and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts through 7 AM Sunday for 2-5″ of snow and wind gust to 40 MPH which could cause some blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow north of the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely for the Sunday Morning high tide..

The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 1015 AM this morning. Models trends overnight continue to wobble on the heaviest snow bands into Southern New England. The general themes from last night’s message with a trend further north in the heavier snowfall and expansion of the Winter Storm Warning into Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut and expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory into Norfolk, Southern Worcester and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Snow totals along the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island have been increased a bit. The heaviest snowfall for the NWS Taunton coverage area remain in areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island with the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast and the heaviest bands of snow are wobbling a bit but have trended a bit further north resulting in the expansion of warnings and advisories. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system and wind gust numbers have been increased slightly over the Southeast New England region. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.

Once again the biggest issue at hand is that just a small amount of track change in the storm system and the heaviest snow bands will make the difference between the current forecasted snow amounts occurring, much higher amounts occurring, especially in south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island or much lesser amounts over the area. This will be watched carefully throughout the storm event. At this time, the storm trends and data suggest higher snowfall amounts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. This is likely the last storm coordination message for this system as we move into operations mode though another coordination message could be sent if time allows and significant change to the storm event occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057/936490143112024/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty lessening on potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend though continued slight storm track differences of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England. The trend has been for heavier snowfall to trend northward through southern parts of Southern New England. Near Blizzard conditions likely in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely on Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for 1 PM Saturday Afternoon to 1 AM Sunday Morning for 8-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH with isolated higher gusts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet and combined with strong winds could cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 6-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and near blizzard conditions are likely..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH and isolated higher gusts. The winds and potentially wet snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with considerable blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM Saturday Morning to 7 AM Sunday Morning for Providence County Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for 3-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH with isolated higher gusts which could cause considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow across areas around the Mass Pike and interior northeast Massachusetts south of the New Hampshire border with northern and western Massachusetts seeing 1″ or less of snow..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Saturday Morning to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH likely..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Morning to the midday high tide for Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties for minor to moderate coastal flooding around the time of the Sunday Midday High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide..

The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 630 PM. Models trends over the course of the day have been a bit further north into southern portions of Southern New England with heavier snowfall and areas on the South Coast, Cape Cod and Nantucket island seeing the potential for near blizzard conditions and for Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI to see blizzard conditions. The headlines of this coordination message reflect the latest thinking. The track difference of 30-50 mile remains a concern for the snowfall forecast but its noted that the spread in the models has decreased some as well which allows for less uncertainty. Nonetheless, a small track difference of 30-50 miles can still make a fairly significant difference in the snowfall forecast and is within the error of the models at this time range. The strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the high tide cycle Sunday Morning remain the highest confidence issues with this storm system. Also of note given the heavier snowfall amounts in the Winter Storm, High Wind and Blizzard Warning areas is for the potential of that snow to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds there could be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This will need close monitoring throughout the storm event.

Future model runs are hoped to provide further clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal though it has lessened since Friday Morning. Its hoped that the spread will continue to decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence some time between 10 AM-Noon Saturday. Overnight SKYWARN Operations Saturday Night are possible depending on the track and intensity of the storm with Activation and Ops likely to continue for the Sunday Morning high tide. One more coordination message will have more info and clarity on the storm situation before we move into Ops mode. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics and Snowfall/Probability maps on the potential major winter storm.

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.936141886480183/936140693146969/?type=3&theater

NWS Taunton Snowfall Total/Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875(508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503(508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..Uncertainty remains higher than normal in potential winter storm outcomes for this weekend with models at a time period where error in storm track is at 100 miles and a difference of just 30-50 miles can make the difference of heavier snow and stronger winds further north versus a much lighter snowfall and strong to damaging winds remaining in Southeast New England..
..South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island stand the greatest risk of highest snowfall totals with areas south of the Mass Pike still at risk for some accumulating snow. Strong to Damaging Winds and Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding also remain threats to Southeastern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for 4-7″ of snow and strong winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. The winds and snowfall could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. A track further north could mean even heavier snow and stronger winds. A track further south means lighter snowfall and somewhat less wind in this area..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning for Block Island Rhode Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with wind gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat in Southeast New England especially south of Boston through Cape Cod and the Islands on north and east facing beaches. Coastal Flood Watches and/or Advisories will likely be posted in later updates for the high tide cycles Saturday Evening and especially late morning Sunday..
..Much of the rest of Southern New England will see 1-3″ of snow with areas between the Mass Pike south and north of the Winter Storm Watch area possibly seeing some higher snowfall amounts if models trend northward. Lesser amounts are expected if the track is further south..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track and timing..

The headlines of this message capture the current headlines for Southern New England as of 750 AM. Models continue to wobble with the track of what will be a historic storm for the US Mid-Atlantic States region. Southern New England is on the northern fringe of the storm’s envelope. Unfortunately, this will cause greater uncertainty in the forecast than normal and makes it a difficult forecast to allow people to plan appropriately for the storm. Current model trends have been northward with the track with South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island standing the greatest risk for heavier snowfall, strong to damaging winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding across north and east facing coast line of Southeast New England. Model error in this time range is 100 miles while a difference of 30-50 miles can make the difference of even heavier snow on the south coast, more snowfall further north, especially up through the Mass Pike region or less snowfall in the region. Of highest confidence is the strong to damaging wind potential in Southeast New England and minor to moderate coastal flooding.

Future model runs are hoped to provide better clarity. The spread in the track of the storm among the different weather models is higher than normal. Nonetheless, its hoped that the spread will decrease and a blend and consensus of the guidance will help further reduce uncertainty as we get quite close to any storm impacts.

Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm.

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601211156.fxus61.html (Thursday Morning Model Discussion)

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.935871876507184/935870946507277/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Uncertainty gradually decreasing but still remains over the potential for a weekend winter storm over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for potential Heavy Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds and Coastal Flooding remains over southern portions of Southern New England including most of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with the Boston area on the northern fringe of significant impacts as well as areas such as the Hartford Connecticut area. As is typically the case with intense, major winter storms, there will be a sharp cutoff in the northern extent of significant winter weather. A track change of 30-50 miles could make the difference in a larger portion of the area getting heavier snow and stronger winds and more of the coast receiving coastal flooding versus much less snow and wind even in southern portions of Southern New England.
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this weekend including the potential for overnight operations depending on the storm track. Additional coordination messages will have more info and clarity on the storm situation. The next coordination message will be posted either late Thursday Evening or early Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion which had an excellent synopsis of the model uncertainty, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics on the potential major winter storm..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html (Latest Discussion)
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1601211156.fxus61.html (Thursday Morning Model Discussion)

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographic:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.935356119892093/935355436558828/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more