Page 144 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday June 23rd 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 22, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and extreme Northwest Rhode Island. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado or two is also possible. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather further east..
..Threat will be contingent on any cloud debris from any shower and thunderstorm activity that occurs Tuesday Morning and how much destabilization occurs. Many other parameters look quite favorable for severe weather potential including very strong wind shear profiles. This is the most favorable severe weather setup modeled for the spring/summer 2015 season with the understanding that predicting severe weather threats 36-48 hours particularly in Southern New England are more difficult than nor’easter and other major storm events..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message with further details will be posted by 1100 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/cwa_template_severe_002.jpg

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Post Tropical Cyclone Bill Impacts – Sunday June 21st, 2015

June 20, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Post Tropical Cyclone Bill will have the potential to bring a soaking rainfall to much of Southern New England with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in Southeastern New England..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Rhode Island except for Block Island RI from 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon for 1.5-3 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts possible. If the rain falls in a short enough period of time, urban and poor drainage flooding issues could develop..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge reports and the urban and poor drainage flood potential Sunday Morning through mid-afternoon..

Post Tropical Cyclone Bill will pass close enough to Southern New England to bring a widespread soaking rainfall to much of Southern New England with the heaviest rainfall of 1.5 to possibly as much as 3″ with isolated higher amounts possible in Southeast New England. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Rhode Island except for Block Island RI from 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. If the rain falls in a short enough period of time, urban and poor drainage flooding could develop particularly in locations in Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts that have these kind of issues in these scenarios.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge reports and the urban and poor drainage flood potential Sunday Morning through mid-afternoon. This will likely be the only coordination message for this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Post Tropical Cyclone Bill Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

WPC Post Tropical Cyclone Bill Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.wtnt32.KWNH.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday June 12th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 12, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and extended into portions of Southern New Hampshire for late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night and the Storm Prediction Center has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for this timeframe. Specifically, the timeframe for severe weather is between 5 PM to 10 PM possibly lasting as long as midnight Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 5 PM Friday Afternoon..

A warm front will push northward through Southern New England. Presuming sufficient heating, the atmosphere will destabilize across Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts and into Southern New Hampshire. While the cold front will be further west and will not push through until the overnight hours, wind profiles coupled with expected atmospheric destabilization and other parameters should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late Friday Afternoon and evening across Western New England. SPC has placed Northern Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire in a marginal risk for severe weather and the timeframe is between 5-10 PM possibly lasting as long as midnight Friday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 5 PM Friday Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential unless a significant change to the situation has occurred. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday June 12th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 11, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and extended into portions of Southern New Hampshire for late Friday Afternoon into Friday Night and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather for this timeframe. Specifically, the timeframe for severe weather is between 4 PM to Midnight Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506111738.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday June 9th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 9, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Tuesday afternoon and evening across much of interior Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has upgraded interior Southern New England north and west of the Boston to Providence line to a slight risk for severe weather..
..Threat timeframe is from 3-9 PM across the region and is contingent on the degree of heating and destabilization for our area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230-300 PM EDT..

At 930 AM, Satellite imagery shows an area of clearing in Central New York and Central Pennsylvania moving east and east-northeast into Southern New England. If this clearing can make it into Southern New England and allow for sufficient heating and destabilization, the strong wind fields aloft ahead of an approaching cold front would set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of interior Southern New England, north and west of a Boston to Providence line with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has upgraded interior Southern New England north and west of the Boston to Providence line to a slight risk for severe weather. The threat timeframe is from 3-9 PM across the region and is again, contingent on the degree of heating and destabilization for our area. If cloud cover remains over the area, the severe weather potential is more limited but if clearing occurs as expected, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230-300 PM EDT. This will be the last coordination message on the Tuesday Severe Weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on the Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday June 9th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 9, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across much of interior Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. The degree of the severe weather potential will be contingent on any clearing that can develop from debris clouds from overnight showers and possible thunderstorms and degree of instability based on the amount of clearing. Wind fields are more than sufficient for severe weather if enough instability can develop..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506081731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday May 28th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

May 28, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely again today, Thursday, across much of interior Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of interior Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk surrounding the slight risk area. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with possible urban to poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Threat timeframe is in the early to mid afternoon to early evening timeframe so a bit earlier than Wednesday and some interior areas of Eastern New England could be affected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later today and tonight..

Yesterday, portions of Western Massachusetts were impacted by strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as a trough swung through the area. As expected, activity weakened as it moved eastward. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on the pockets of wind damage that occurred with the severe thunderstorms in Western Massachusetts as well as one lightning induced structure fire:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 5/27/15 Severe Weather Event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1505272351.nwus51.html

For today, a cold front that will bring a bit cooler and less humid conditions will swing through Southern New England this afternoon and tonight. Wind shear values and instability values should be sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England starting as early as the first part of this afternoon and lasting through early evening. The key possible limiting factor is whether dry air at the mid-levels moves in and limits storm development. If that doesn’t occur, at minimum, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will affect portions of interior Southern New England and extend into Eastern New England. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of interior Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk surrounding the slight risk area. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with possible urban to poor drainage flooding are the primary threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later today and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday May 27th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

May 27, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut for later Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and Heavy Rainfall leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather surrounding the slight risk area across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. Threat timeframe is after 400 PM this afternoon through early evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 330 PM to monitor this potential across Western New England..

Warm and humid conditions will continue across Southern New England today. A trough will be moving across New York State during the day today and approach Eastern New York and Western New England during the late afternoon and into early evening. How far east the trough progresses during the day and the level of destabilization that will occur will affect the severe weather potential across Western New England for this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. There will be sufficient heating through the day and wind fields will be reasonably sufficient that if the trough makes it far enough east through Eastern New York before sunset that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms can occur across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall leading to possible urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather surrounding the slight risk area across Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. Threat timeframe is after 400 PM this afternoon through early evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 330 PM to monitor this potential across Western New England. This will be the only coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 27th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

May 26, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western New England late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Strong to Damaging Winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton Coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather designated for western New England in the NWS Taunton coverage area. The timeframe for any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is after 3-4 PM Wednesday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening. A more complete coordination message will be issued Wednesday Morning detailing the severe weather potential for western New England. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1505261702.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday May 19th 2015 Severe Weather Potential

May 19, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut particularly in the 4-10 PM timeframe. Strong to Damaging Winds and hail would be the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday in Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. Threat will be contingent on heating and instability levels as well as the timing of the cold front through the area. Wind shear profiles and other parameters appear favorable at this time..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 715 AM, Doppler Radar showed showers over Central and Southern New England back into Eastern New York. These will move through the area this morning and are associated with a warm front. Behind this area of showers is some clearing ahead of a cold front that will move through the region late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Wind shear profiles will be favorable for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms but the question will be the amount of clearing allowing for heating and instability over the area and this will likely limit the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms to an isolated to scattered nature over western and central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. SPC continues a marginal risk for severe weather over this area. Across eastern areas of Southern New England, any thunderstorms are expected to be sub-severe as the storms weaken with the loss of any heating though this will be monitored.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this situation. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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