Page 144 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Evening 7/13/14-Wednesday 7/16/14 – Severe Weather Potential

July 13, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Conditions continue to be monitored for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain quite likely across much of Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday and potentially extending into Eastern New England for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..

Conditions continued to be monitored for this evening for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat Sunday Evening in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion (#1358) for this area. That discussion is listed below:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1358.html

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 11 PM for Berkshire, Hampden, and Hampshire Counties Massachusetts and Litchfield, Harford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut. We are closely monitoring based on Doppler Radar imagery as of 630 PM a cluster of severe thunderstorms approaching the Massachusetts and Connecticut border as well as other severe thunderstorm activity further west in Southeast New York. The watch statement info is listed below:

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415 Statement:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0415.html

NWS Taunton County Outline for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #415:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

As we move into Monday, a slow moving cold front will be approaching Eastern New York and New England. There will be warm and humid conditions over the area that will create a level of instability and with sufficiently strong wind shear profiles. As the slow moving cold front approaches the region, that will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. The timing is a bit uncertain. Storms could develop as early as Noon-1 PM or hold off on development until after 2-3 PM. This will be monitored closely. Also, the level of cloud cover and any upstream convection affecting the area overnight will affect the coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. At this time, even with an expected level of some cloud cover, isolate to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is likely across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Connecticut, Rhode Island and Western and Central Massachusetts with 5% severe weather probabilities for the rest of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats though an isolated weak tornado is also possible. Regarding heavy rainfall, the potential exists for a Flash Flood Watch to be required either for Monday’s potential thunderstorms and/or for Tuesday’s potential thunderstorms.

Tuesday will be a repeat of Monday with the severe weather threat potentially evolving into a flash flood threat as we get into Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. Further details on the threat for Tuesday will be defined in future severe weather coordination messages. There may also be a threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms into Wednesday across parts of Eastern New England depending on the timing and speed of the slow moving cold front as well. This will also be discussed in future coordination messages.

SKYSKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in western portions of the area for this Sunday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time or as late as 2-3 PM and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic in PDF format and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.13_PM_Fcst.pdf

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – late Sunday Afternoon 7/13/14-Wednesday 7/16/14 – Severe Weather Potential

July 13, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..After another gorgeous weekend and end of last week, the weather will turn active again to start the new work week..
..An Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for late Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening in Southwest New Hampshire, far Western Massachusetts and extreme Western Connecticut. Strong Winds and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England on Monday and Tuesday and potentially extending into Eastern New England for Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has 5% severe weather probabilities for Southern New England for Monday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in far western portions of the area for late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday..

After another period of gorgeous late week and weekend weather, the weather will turn active once again to start the work week. Another slow moving cold front will begin to impact the Northeast United States starting largely in New York and Pennsylvania on Sunday and then spreading into New England on Monday and Tuesday setting the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats.

For late Sunday Afternoon and evening, it is possible that an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could affect extreme Southwest New Hampshire, extreme Western Massachusetts an extreme Western Connecticut. The main threats for severe weather and flash flood potential across the NWS Taunton coverage area will be on Monday and Tuesday potentially extending into Wednesday in Eastern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm activity in far western portions of the area for late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday starting as early as Noon time and lasting through late Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is also likely on Tuesday and possible on Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1000 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC’s Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2014.07.13_AM_Fcst.png

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Post Severe Weather Coordination for Monday July 7th, 2014/Wednesday July 9th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 9, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Lack of trigger during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and late arriving line of what were strong to severe thunderstorms out in New York and Pennsylvania precluded any severe weather in the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Microburst found in Bedford Massachusetts from the Monday July 7th 2014 severe weather outbreak. Pictures from the severe weather from Monday can be sent to the pics@nsradio.org email address or as a reply to this email..
..For Wednesday, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible with strong winds, hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding but instability levels may not be as high as the past 2 days due to a large amount of mid-level dry air and again the triggering mechanism may remain west of our area. That being said, if thunderstorms can organize efficiently, wind shear levels aloft are very high and would allow for a threat for severe weather. This will be monitored through the day..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms for today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if thunderstorm coverage increases sufficiently..

The New York State and Pennsylvania area had a widespread severe weather outbreak Tuesday across their region. Across Southern New England, lack of a strong trigger was unable to tap the unstable atmosphere and favorable wind shear profiles resulting in a few scattered non-severe thunderstorms in the western part of the region. When the trigger mechanism provided by a trough and impulse across New York State arrived in western parts of our coverage area, it was well past peak heating, resulting in no severe weather across our region.

Regarding Monday’s severe weather outbreak, a microburst was classified in Bedford Massachusetts and towns surrounding Bedford such as Woburn, Winchester, Lexington, Burlington, Malden etc. likely had similar straight-line wind damage. The Public Information Statement and Local Storm Report from the Monday July 7th severe weather outbreak and a Photo Album of Damage pictures from the WX1BOX Facebook page appears below:

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Bedford Massachusetts Microburst:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407081904.nous41.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

For today, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible with strong winds, hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding but instability levels may not be as high as the past 2 days due to a large amount of mid-level dry air and again the triggering mechanism may remain west of our area. That being said, if thunderstorms can organize efficiently, wind shear levels aloft are very high and would allow for a threat for severe weather. This will be monitored through the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any potential strong to severe thunderstorms for today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if thunderstorm coverage increases sufficiently. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton is initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Post Severe Weather Coordination for Monday July 7th, 2014/Tuesday July 8th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A sizable severe weather event Monday across Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts with wind damage, large hail, and some pockets of flash flooding. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are part of this message below..
..Another isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm event is expected today across portions of interior Southern New England but could affect areas to the coast as well. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The threat timeframe now has the potential to be later this afternoon into this evening versus earlier in the day and will now hinge on a trigger to tap into the favorably unstable environment for sufficient wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development and this will be monitored closely today. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic..
..Additional severe weather threats exist for Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week but will be contingent on the position of the cold front and if dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere mitigate any severe weather potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. Exact start timeframe needs to be defined on potential activation. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible on Wednesday..

A severe weather event across North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts resulted in considerable damage. Hardest hit areas include Bernardston, Warwick MA, Ashburnham and parts of Gardner closest to Ashburnham as well as Bedford, Woburn, Malden, Burlington, Concord by a golf country club, Medford, and Winchester. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page – Monday July 7th, 2014 – Severe Weather Outbreak Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

Taking a look at today’s severe weather potential, the upper level impulse that was responsible for severe weather on Monday pushed offshore early this morning just before daybreak. Satellite imagery shows sufficient clearing for heating and destabilization. Wind shear profiles are a bit stronger than yesterday across the region. The key factor on severe weather potential for today will be a trigger to tap into the favorable instability and wind shear profiles over the area and the timing of such a triggering mechanism. At this time, the best severe weather potential according to the models would be in the late afternoon and evening hours, however, a few showers popped up as of 725 AM on Radar in Pennsylvania which may signal somewhat earlier development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. This will bear close monitoring throughout today. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic.

Additional severe weather is possible particularly on Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week. This will be contingent on the position of the cold front and dry air in the mid-levels that mitigate any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. Exact start timeframe needs to be defined on potential activation. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible on Wednesday. This will be the last complete coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Post Severe Weather Coordination for Monday July 7th, 2014/Tuesday July 8th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A sizable severe weather event today across Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts with wind damage, large hail, and some pockets of flash flooding. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are part of this message below..
..Another isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm event is expected across portions of interior Southern New England but could affect areas to the coast as well. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The threat timeframe could be any time after Noon Tuesday. Some conditions on the threat will include a trigger to tap the unstable atmosphere and reasonably strong wind shear profiles as well as any cloud cover and leftover showers and thunderstorms overnight. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely as early as noon time Tuesday for the region. The next coordination message will be issued by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page – Monday July 7th, 2014 – Severe Weather Outbreak Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 7th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 7, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather..
..Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening..

Warm and humid conditions will return after a pleasant weekend in the wake of the July 3rd Severe Weather Outbreak and Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern New England. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut possibly spreading further east as we get into Monday Evening. Wind shear profiles combined with sufficient instability should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during this period. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather.

Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday. The details on the severe weather potential during this timeframe will be handled as we get closer to each day. The threats for severe weather during these days will depend on the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any previous convection on the previous day.
2.) Timing and movement of any other impulses or triggers in the atmosphere ahead of the cold front.
3.) Timing and movement of the actual cold front through our region.

After Thursday, conditions are expected to be dry Friday and Saturday likely extending into the first half of Sunday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday though Monday Evening. This will be the only coordination message on the severe weather potential for Monday. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on potential for severe weather on Tuesday will be posted either late Monday Evening or Tuesday Morning depending on the evolution of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mid-Monday Afternoon to Monday Evening. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather and Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #1 – July 3rd, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak and Hurricane Arthur Post Storm Information

July 6, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..First Severe Weather Outbreak of the 2014 Summer Severe Weather Season occurred on July 3rd 2014 across Southern New Hampshire, interior Massachusetts from Northern Norfolk County North and west and across parts of Northern Connecticut..
..Hurricane Arthur brought a significant flash flood incident to portions of South Coastal Massachusetts with isolated pockets of power outages and tree and power line damage on portions of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island..
..A second post severe weather and Hurricane Arthur coordination message will follow later this week after the NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone report on Hurricane Arthur is issued later this week..
..Any post storm damage and flood pictures or video from these two weather events can be sent as a reply to this message or sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter as the pictures or video is shared with media, emergency management and the National Weather Service..

The first severe weather outbreak of the 2014 summer severe weather season occurred on Thursday July 3rd, 2014. As a slow moving cold front approached the region with unstable conditions in place and sufficient wind shear profiles, a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms developed over portions of Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire. These storms were responsible for pockets of wind damage and hail across portions of Western-Central Hampshire County Massachusetts and also across portions of Northeast Massachusetts including the Billerica, Lawrence and Methuen area into North-Central Essex County Massachusetts. Another severe thunderstorm organized over Rockingham County NH impacting the Newmarket to Portsmouth, NH area.

Another line of strong to severe thunderstorms organized across Eastern New York. This line would traverse much of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut producing wind damage, some of which was significant and hail across portions of this region. Some of the more significant damage locations were across Northampton and Whatley Massachusetts and in New Britain, Connecticut, a 63 MPH measured wind gust was recorded. The southern storm across Connecticut would intensify as it entered South-Central Massachusetts causing pockets of wind damage and hail in this area. It would intensify further as it affected communities such as Natick, Wayland, Wellesley, Waltham and into Metro-West and the North Shore with numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and even structural damage with a section of roof blown off an apartment complex in Waltham, Massachusetts. Several trees landed on cars and homes in Natick, Wayland and up through the North Shore of Massachusetts. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, and Facebook Album on the July 3rd, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak from many of the pictures that all of you in our Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio Spotter community have sent into us:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_3_14_LSR.txt

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_7_3_14.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Page – July 3rd, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.806943206006366.1073741837.216287391738620&type=1

On Friday July 4th, 2014, Hurricane Arthur would make its closest approach to Southern New England. An outer rain band organized between the circulation of Hurricane Arthur and the cold front that was gradually pushing its way through the rest of Southern New England. This set the stage for very heavy rainfall across portions of Southern and Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Hardest hit were portions of South Coastal Massachusetts across the Greater New Bedford, Wareham, Plymouth area where 6-8″ of rain fell. This caused a significant flash flood episode across urban areas of New Bedford and Fairhaven with other flash flood reports around the Wareham and Plymouth area. Surrounding this area was a widespread 2-5″ rainfall across portions of South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with more minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

Across Cape Cod and the Islands, winds picked up after 600 PM Friday Evening causing isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages along with 1-3″ of rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding. Wind gusts on Nantucket Island were over 60 MPH with sustained tropical storm force winds. This downed a few trees and caused power outages to over 2700 people on the island. There were also numerous streets flooded in downtown Nantucket for a time during the evening hours. Cape Cod had wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range. Wind on Martha’s Vineyard were also gusting to the 40-50 MPH range. Below are the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement, and WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album with the Flash Flooding Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Hurricane Arthur:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_4_14_arthur_LSR.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Arthur Rainfall/Wind Reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_4_14_PNS.txt

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_7_4_14_arthur.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Page Album – Flash Flood Event Related to Hurricane Arthur:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.806688216031865.1073741836.216287391738620&type=3

Respectfully Submitted,

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Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #6 – Friday 7/4/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Impacts

July 4, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A Severe Weather Outbreak resulted in pockets of wind damage, hail, and flooding across portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central, and Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Those with damage and/or hail photos may send them as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and the photos will be shared with the media, emergency management and the National Weather Service. The Local Storm Report from this outbreak appears below.
..Active Week of Weather Now Focuses on Hurricane Arthur, the eventual passage of the cold front that caused the severe weather outbreak Thursday and flood/flash flood potential for the region..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Barnstable and Nantucket Counties (the area from Woods Hole to Provincetown including Nantucket Island). Sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH with Gusts to 50 MPH are possible in Barnstable County while sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH are possible on Nantucket Island based on the current track of Hurricane Arthur. Isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible. Heavy Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 6″ are possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in this area. Some moderate storm surge coastal flooding is possible on north and east facing locations of Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Noon Today Through late tonight for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Heavy Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 6″ are possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in this area as well as the potential for small stream flooding..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for Western and Central Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Northern Connecticut. In this area, heavy rainfall will be more localized but heavy rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour where heavier downpours may lead to flash flooding particularly in urban and poor drainage areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 200 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning for flash flood issues and the potential for tropical storm force winds on Nantucket Island and portions of Cape Cod..
..The VoIP Hurricane Net, Hurricane Watch Net and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, all activated Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s landfall in Eastern North Carolina and will likely activate formally once again for Hurricane Arthur for direct impacts on Nova Scotia Canada where the Canadian Hurricane Centre is also likely to be active as well..

Thursday represented the largest severe weather outbreak of the 2014 summer season with many pockets of wind damage, hail, flooding and lightning damage. Those with damage and/or hail photos may send them as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and the photos will be shared with the media, emergency management and the National Weather Service. The Local Storm Report from Thursday’s severe weather outbreak appears below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407040438.nwus51.html

Attention now turns to Hurricane Arthur and his interaction with the cold front that caused Thursday’s Severe Weather Outbreak. This cold front will finally make its way through Southern New England late tonight and Saturday Morning. This front will interact with Hurricane Arthur and cause a heavy rainfall event especially in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but also in a more localized way in western and central parts of the region. At 950 AM, radar showed outer rain bands of Hurricane Arthur affecting parts of Southeast Massachusetts, Block Island and Long Island moving north-northeastward while a band of rainfall associated with the cold front is over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Eastern New York. The interaction of these systems is likely to cause the potential for heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the Flash Flood Watches over the area and expected rainfall amounts.

There will be a bit of wind impacts over extreme Southeast New England but the main threat as stated all week has been the threat for heavy rainfall and flood/flash flooding with Hurricane Arthur and the interaction of the Cold Front. Nonetheless, portions of the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island will receive a period of strong to damaging winds to tropical storm force Friday Evening into early Saturday Morning as well as some pockets of coastal storm surge flooding. Winds will be out of the northeast so north and east facing locations will face the greatest risk for pockets of moderate storm surge coastal flooding. Wind intensity will be much like a conventional nor’easter over this area so isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible. Winds will be less as you move away from Cape Cod and Nantucket and the bigger issue across much of the area is the potential for flooding from heavy rainfall. The headlines depict the main wind threat in the Tropical Storm Warning area from Woods Hole to Provincetown including Nantucket Island Massachusetts.

The VoIP Hurricane Net, Hurricane Watch Net and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, all activated Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s landfall in Eastern North Carolina and will likely activate formally once again for Hurricane Arthur for direct impacts on Nova Scotia Canada where the Canadian Hurricane Centre is also likely to be active as well. See their respective web links for details:

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 200 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning for flash flood issues and the potential for tropical storm force winds on Nantucket Island and portions of Cape Cod. This will be the last coordination message regarding Hurricane Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. Below are the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hurricane Local Statement, and Public Information Statement on Tropical Storm Safety Tips as well as National Hurricane Center information on Hurricane Arthur:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement – Hurricane Arthur:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather and Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #5A – Thursday 7/3/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 4, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407040438.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement – Hurricane Arthur:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather and Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #5 – Thursday 7/3/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 3, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Hurricane Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Hurricane Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from Noon today trough this evening for thunderstorms and heavy downpours producing localized flash flooding where thunderstorms train or track over the same area producing locally heavy rainfall amounts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Thursday lasting through this evening. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Hurricane Arthur interacting with this cold front. Detail on potential activation for Friday will be determined in the next coordination messages. Interests in the region, particularly Southeast New England, should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Arthur as there remains some uncertainties in his specific track..
..WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the VoIP Hurricane Net are activating at 6 PM EDT/2200 UTC Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch Net will be activating at Noon EDT/1600 UTC Thursday for Hurricane Arthur..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report detailing the events from Wednesday Afternoon:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Wednesday Afternoon 7/2/14 Severe Weather Event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407022217.nwus51.html

The weather will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into the Saturday Morning timeframe. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front continues to gradually approach Southern New England from the west and will continue to affect our region Thursday. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will likely refire by late morning/early afternoon in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and will likely have a better chance to extend eastward across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. The extent of the severe weather threat will be contingent on any potential thunderstorms overnight given activity in Eastern New York late this evening and any cloud cover. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur, wind fields would be sufficient for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity across much of Southern New England.

Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding where thunderstorms train over the same area. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from Noon today through this evening for thunderstorms and heavy downpours producing localized flash flooding where thunderstorms train or track over the same area producing locally heavy rainfall amounts.

As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Hurricane Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. It is also unclear when this event will occur but it is looking more like the late Thursday Night into Friday timeframe.

In terms of the exact track of Hurricane Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. Overnight, models appear to be in a bit better agreement on a track closer to or perhaps just south of the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. This would keep most of the strongest winds away from Southern New England though a few stronger wind gusts could affect the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island. With the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England likely taking place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 3 days away, there remains some uncertainty. As the system continues to organize and moves north-northeastward and begins to turn northeast, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England, should monitor the track of Hurricane Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the VoIP Hurricane Net are activating at 6 PM EDT/2200 UTC Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch Net will be activating at Noon EDT/1600 UTC Thursday for Hurricane Arthur. See their respective web links for details:

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Thursday lasting through this evening. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Hurricane Arthur interacting with this cold front. Detail on potential activation for Friday will be determined in the next coordination messages. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Thursday Evening regarding severe weather and flood potential for Friday and any impacts directly or indirectly from Hurricane Arthur. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Hurricane Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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