Page 158 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday October 7th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather/High Wind Event

October 7, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night especially across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Monday with damaging winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..Strong Wind Gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts with fully leaved trees and winds out of a Southerly direction may also cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage ahead of any line of convective showers or thunderstorms. A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon-8 PM EDT Monday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night..

A strong cold front, which will also encompass the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, is still expected to move across Southern New England as we get into Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This front will have very strong jet stream dynamics which will likely result in a line of heavy downpours capable of causing pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of a fine line of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that would allow strong to damaging winds to reach the surface resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage in the area. The key factors to any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat or for a fine line of heavy showers and/or strong to severe thunderstorms to develop continues to be the ability of jet dynamics to overcome limited instability in the atmosphere or if more instability in the atmosphere develops than modeled.

Ahead of the cold front and any convective showers and thunderstorms that develop, winds will increase out of the south with wind gusts of 40 MPH with a few areas possibly reaching Wind Advisory gusts of 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is in effect from Noon-8 PM Monday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts as this area seems to be the most likely to hit Wind Advisory criteria ahead of any convective showers and thunderstorms. This will be monitored for additional issues outside of this area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday October 7th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather/High Wind Event

October 6, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night especially across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut but all areas should monitor. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of this area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Monday with damaging winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night..

A strong cold front, which will also encompass the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen, will move across Southern New England as we get into later Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. This front will have very strong jet stream dynamics which will likely result in a line of heavy downpours capable of causing pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of a fine line of heavy showers and/or thunderstorms that would allow strong to damaging winds to reach the surface resulting in isolated pockets of wind damage in the area. Some strong winds may also be possible ahead of the cold front as well. The key factors to any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat or for a fine line of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop will be the ability of jet dynamics to overcome limited instability in the atmosphere or if more instability in the atmosphere develops than modeled.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Monday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: SKYWARN Training Class at Brown University in Providence RI – Wednesday October 23rd, 2013 from 7-10 PM EDT

October 6, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

An Amateur Radio Coordinator taught NWS SKYWARN Training class will be held at Brown University in Providence, RI. The Blackstone Valley Amateur Radio Club, Brown Radio Club, and Brown University Department of Physics are sponsoring this training class. Specific details can be seen below and at the following web links:

NWS Taunton SKYWARN Training Class link:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/officePrograms/skywarn/skywarnTraining.shtml

WX1BOX SKYWARN Training Class link:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

Training class information:
Wednesday October 23rd, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Brown University – Barus and Holley Buliding – Room: 166
Providence, RI
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: None Required.
Parking: Brown University parking lot #43 at the corner of 182 Hope and George Streets is free to use after 6 pm.
Directions link: http://brown.edu/Departments/Physics/Ladd/directions/bh.html
Google map link: http://goo.gl/maps/vytUU

Please forward this announcement out to interested people. Thanks for your support!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Remembering the Great Hurricane of 1938

September 19, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

Saturday September 21st, 2013 will mark the 75th Anniversary of the Great Hurricane of 1938. The National Weather Service in Taunton has put together a web page on the Great Hurricane of 1938. It can be seen on the following link:

http://www.weather.gov/box/1938hurricane

The link has a plethora of information from meteorological data to storm maps, photos of damage, media stories, commemorative events and much more. The Great Hurricane of 1938 is a benchmark that New England hurricanes are measured and remains one of the most catastrophic hurricanes to have ever hit New England and is historical nationally for the damage caused to our region. Please take time to check out this page as a reminder of what can happen and that despite the strong impacts of tropical systems to our region over the past 2 years, that even stronger impacts can occur such as what occurred 75 years ago on September 21st with the Great Hurricane of 1938.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 9/12/13-Friday 9/13/13 Severe Weather Potential

September 12, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely late Thursday Afternoon and Evening extending into Friday Morning across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning..

Yesterday brought Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of Western Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire with the bulk of heavier activity back into Eastern New York, Vermont, North-Central New Hampshire and Maine as while conditions were unstable in the region, most of the triggering mechanisms stayed north and west of our region. Below is the Local Storm Report from yesterday’s severe weather event:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309120259.nwus51.html

For later Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning, a strong cold front will bring an end to the short duration of heat over the region. Temperatures today will mostly be in the 80s with possibly a few areas touching 90 degrees. Conditions won’t be quite as unstable as yesterday but instability parameters will still be sufficient coupled with strong wind shear values and a focus for convection between the cold front and pre-frontal trough to set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The extent of the severe weather threat will be determined by the timing of the cold front and the amount of instability available as the cold front moves through the region. There is the possibility the cold front will slow down as it moves across the area which may extend the threat for thunderstorms with urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly strong to damaging winds into Friday Morning for parts of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Portions of Western New England are in a Slight Risk for severe weather as noted by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 9/11/13-Friday Morning 9/13/13 Severe Weather Potential

September 11, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity for the next two days will then lead to the potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms later Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night and again Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning as a cold front approaches the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and tonight and again Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from Norfolk County Massachusetts northeastward through Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast Hillsborough County New Hampshire from 1 to 6 PM today..

After low clouds and fog burn off over the region, temperatures will rise quickly into the upper 80’s to lower-mid 90s across the region with high humidity’s setting up for very hot and humid weather today and lasting through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Norfolk County Massachusetts northeastward through Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast Hillsborough County New Hampshire from 1-6 PM today.

As we get into later this afternoon and evening, the atmosphere will become strongly unstable with sufficient wind shear profiles for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats but there is a lack of a well defined trigger to tap into the wind shear and unstable atmosphere. For later today and tonight, activity could be isolated or possibly stay north and west of Southern New England. This will be monitored throughout the day.

As we get into Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning, a strong cold front will move into the region likely enhancing the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms again with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The key item for this timeframe will be the timing of the cold front and any pre-frontal trough with the peak instability expected for the day. Temperatures will be warm and humid and likely be at least in the mid-upper 80s possibly into the lower 90s again. The cold front will be through the region Friday Morning bringing an end to the summer-like heat and bringing a dry autumn-like weather weekend.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and again Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on Wednesday’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Another coordination message on the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning will be posted either late tonight or Thursday Morning. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1/Day-2 Outlooks and NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather/Flash Flood Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 9/3/13 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

September 3, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and the potential for flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Timeframe appears to be as early midday today through early evening in locations along and east of the Connecticut River Valley as a strong cold front brings an end to the heat and humidity across the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around Noon to 1 PM lasting through early evening..

Another significant flash flood episode affected portions of Southern New England Monday with the hardest hit area being parts of Rhode Island that were impacted significantly on Sunday. The Local Storm Report on flood information and spotter reports are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309022206.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309022206.nous41.html

At 850 AM, Satellite imagery shows considerable sunshine across much of interior Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut with cloud cover in Eastern New York likely associated with the cold front. If heating for destabilization continues across the region with thunderstorm activity occurring along or ahead of the cloud cover in Eastern New York, sufficient wind shear profiles coupled with the unstable atmosphere will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area with the potential for strong to damaging winds, hail and the potential for flash flooding. Unlike the last couple of days, thunderstorms should be moving more quickly over the area so the flash flood threat will not be quite as high as past days but if areas that have been hard hit over the last couple days get hit with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, they may flood more quickly because of the past rainfall.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around Noon to 1 PM lasting through early evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows an Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Flash Flood/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Labor Day Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

September 2, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potential for Flash Flooding and Isolated To Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong winds and hail over the course of Labor Day and into Tuesday. Exact timing and extent of the flash flood and severe weather potential remains uncertain but thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flash flood potential are starting to organize over the area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect through this evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start around 12 PM today lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Tuesday and will be detailed in a later coordination message..

On Sunday, flash flooding affected portions of Southern New England particularly across Central Rhode Island and portions of Southeast Middlesex, Northern and Eastern Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts. Isolated rainfall amounts of 2-5″ occurred resulting in numerous road closures and cars stuck in flood waters and several damaged homes and house fires due to lightning.

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309012333.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309020219.nous41.html

At 1125 AM, Doppler Radar shows heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across North-Central Connecticut in portions of Hartford-Tolland County Connecticut. Additional Heavy showers and thunderstorms are occurring in parts of Central and Northeast New England. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect through this evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area. The main threat with thunderstorms today will be flash flooding but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could bring a strong wind and hail threat as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will start around 12 PM today lasting through early evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Tuesday and will be detailed in a later coordination message.

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Flash Flood/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Labor Day into Tuesday 9/3/13 Timeframe

September 2, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potential for Flash Flooding and Isolated To Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong winds and hail over the course of Labor Day and into Tuesday. Exact timing and extent of the flash flood and severe weather potential is uncertain..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely during portions of Labor Day and into Tuesday. SKYWARN Self-Activation may also be utilized given the uncertainty of the magnitude and timing of any flash flood and/or severe weather potential..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309012333.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1309020219.nous41.html

Over the course of Labor Day and into Tuesday with the warm and humid air remaining in place, it will set the stage for the potential of additional isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development with strong winds, hail and flash flooding as potential threats. The timing of these thunderstorms are uncertain as well as magnitude. Some computer models push the threat more into Monday Night and Tuesday while other computer models have the threat over much of Monday and Tuesday across the region. This will make for difficulty in timing potential formal SKYWARN Activation and Ops at NWS Taunton and the utilization of SKYWARN Self-Activation to cover things as they unfold as what occurred on Sunday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely during portions of Labor Day and into Tuesday. SKYWARN Self-Activation may also be utilized given the uncertainty of the magnitude and timing of any flash flood and/or severe weather potential. Another coordination Message will be posted late Monday Morning or early Monday Afternoon depending on how storms evolve overnight and into Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1309011731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: 14th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference – Saturday October 26h, 2013

August 31, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

The following is an announcement regarding the 14th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference on Saturday October 26th, 2013.

Earlybird registration is now available through Sept. 12 for this year’s 14th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference. The conference will be held on Saturday, October 26th at Meditech Corp. in Canton, MA (at base of Blue Hill), same place as last year.

The conference is sponsored by the not-for-profit Blue Hill Observatory Science Center. The conference will still cover many of the various weather events that have affected Southern New England recently, but there will be several talks on Superstorm Sandy. Other topics that will be covered include:

Signficant tornadoes in New England and New York since 1995
The 75th anniversary of the 1938 Hurricane

The highlight of the day will be a comparison of the Blizzard of 2013 to the Blizzard of 1978, presented by Harvey Leonard and Matt Noyes.

Registration Fees:

Please note that registration will be stopped after 230 registrants!

Early Bird Registration (Today – Sept 12): $89
Student/Teacher Early and Regular Registration (Aug 1 – Oct 22): $89
Regular Registration (Sept 13 – Oct 22): $99
Late Registration (Oct 26 – at the conference site): $109 (on-line registration will not be available after Oct 22.)
Student/Teacher Late Registration (Oct 26): $99 (same rules as above)

Key Southern New England Weather Conference Links:

Conference website: http://www.sneweatherconf.org
Conference agenda/abstracts/biographies: http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2013Agenda.shtml
Conference registration: http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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