Page 181 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3B – Monday 5/28/12 Severe Weather Potential Reduced

May 29, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Lack of trigger despite sufficiently unstable atmosphere has precluded widespread severe weather development Monday Night. An Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm could occur late tonight into early Tuesday Morning but the threat has been reduced and will be handled with SKYWARN Self-Activation as required overnight..
..A complete write-up on Tuesday’s severe weather potential will be sent by 830 AM Tuesday Morning..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday Evening 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12 Severe Weather Threats

May 28, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut anytime after 8 PM this evening possibly even extending to the Midnight timeframe and into the overnight hours of early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has extended the Slight Risk area further east for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue until any potential threat for the evening hours has ended or the threat for any activity has passed. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The complex in Central New York State fell apart entering the area and failed to fire off any new strong to severe thunderstorms. Models remain fairly insistent on increasing destablization and a possible subtle trigger for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms via the warm front and possibly a complex of storms or Mesocale Convective System to organize somewhere in New York State and traverse into the region. The threat timeframe is after 8 PM and could potentially be as last as the Midnight timeframe into early Tuesday Morning. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat remains contingnent on the following:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex to organize depending on sufficient triggering otherwise the threat will be more isolated. There remains the possibility that the region will not be affected by severe weather overnight but the situation bears close watching due to certain favorable severe weather parameters.

As any possible severe weather wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. SPC has pushed the slight risk area further east into Southwest New Hampshire and Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut with NWS Taunton factoring in a risk for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe remains late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once any Monday severe weather threat has passed and the severe weather parameters of the atmosphere for Tuesday will be better understood.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will continue through late Monday Evening or early Tuesday Morning pending any severe weather threat materializing. A shortened coordination message will be posted when Ops for any activity Monday Evening/early Tuesday Morning is secured. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message for any severe weather Tuesday will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205281731.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather Potential Monday 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12

May 28, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area away from the immediate coast late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west for Tuesday but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

At 1240 PM today, Doppler Radar showed a dieing area of convection over Central New York State, it is possible that this system could refire producing an isolated severe thunderstorm threat by mid-afternoon though current trends are that this area of convection continues to weaken. Other activity could organize behind this dieing area convection after 2-3 PM. There could then be a lull in activity followed by a greater chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) development around or after 8 pm this evening continuing into early Tuesday Morning. The warm front is reorienting itself from the CT River Valley to near Cape Cod and the islands and will continue to slowly move northward today and this evening. Much of Western and Central New England are in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger and sun and destablization continuing after a brief interruption from any convection and clouds mid-afternoon, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats in the mid to late afternoon followed by a potential MCS and a greater threat for strong to severe thunderstorms later in the evening. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat now remains contingent on these factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather. There is now also the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS type of complex around or after 8 PM tonight after more isolated activity earlier in the day. It is also possible that most of the activity will occur this Monday Evening versus the mid to late afternoon period.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning and any potential MCS moves out of the area, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. Currently, SPC has the Slight Risk area farther to the west but NWS Taunton feels isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could occur over much of the County Warning Area away from the coast. This would mean a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The activity could be a short line or two of strong to severe thunderstorms or possibly a squall line. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message on the threat for Monday. The next coordination message will be posted Monday Evening for the Tuesday severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1205281635.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather Potential Monday 5/28/12 and Tuesday 5/29/12

May 27, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut late Monday Afternoon through early Tuesday Morning. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for this area for Monday..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of the NWS Taunton Coverage area late Tuesday Afternoon and Tuesday Night. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

The cold front that moved through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and Saturday Night will move back over portions of Western New England on Monday as a warm front and stall over portions of Central New England tonight and Monday. Any shower and isolated thunderstorm activity with the warm front will wane Monday Morning. This will place portions of Western New England in the warm sector and with the warm front as a potential trigger with sunshine and destablization expected. It will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out over the area. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and portions of Northwest and North-Central Connecticut. The threat will be contingent on the following factors:

1.) Placement and triggering mechanism potential of the warm front over the area.
2.) Amount of sunshine in the warm sector.
3.) Coverage of severe thunderstorms. There is the possibility that the thunderstorms could be quite isolated over the area but cells that form will have a high probability of producing severe weather.

As the severe weather threat wanes early Tuesday Morning, heating and destablization should commence again ahead of a cold front later Tuesday Morning into the afternoon. This should set stage for a more widespread round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The threat timeframe will be late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. The threat for Tuesday is likely to cover much of the NWS Taunton coverage area away from the coast and could have more numerous severe thunderstorms but potentially not as potent as the Monday late afternoon and evening storms that will likely not be as widespread but each individual cell being more potent. The Tuesday severe weather threat will be discussed further once the Monday severe weather threat has passed.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as 3 PM Monday Afternoon lasting into early Tuesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again late Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. The next coordination message will be posted by Noon Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center WX4NHC Communications Test – Saturday 6/2/12

May 27, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, will have its Communications
Test on Saturday June 2nd, 2012 as confirmed with WX4NHC Coordinators, John McHugh-K4AG and
Julio Ripoll-WD4R. The entire Communications Test is from 9 AM-5 PM EDT (1300-2100 UTC)
and WX4NHC will be testing different radio modes at different times including VHF/UHF, HF and
Echolink/IRLP. WX4NHC will be on the *WX_TALK* Echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 system
from 1-3 PM EDT (1700-1900 UTC) as they have done in past years.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

SKYWARN Newsletter #271 Now Posted in the SKYWARN Newsletter Archive

May 27, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

SKYWARN Newsletter #271 is now available in the SKYWARN Newsletter archive off the main menu of the web site. The direct link is listed below: http://beta.wx1box.org/local/news271.htm

Regards,

Rob Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton Massachusetts

Uncategorized

NWS Taunton Drought Information Statement – Thursday 5/17/12

May 18, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

The following is a Drought Information Statement issued by NWS Taunton which is showing improved conditions due to recent rainfall from late April through mid May. Another Drought Information Statement will be issued by Friday June 15th or sooner if conditions warrant. See the latest NWS Taunton Drought Information Statement below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/drought_5_17_12.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A – Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM for Western New England – NWS Taunton Ops Starting at 3 PM

May 16, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms now likely across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Northwest Connecticut..
..A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 900 PM for Cheshire County NH, Berkshire, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Litchfield and Hartford Counties of Connecticut. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy downpours are the primary threats. Areas close to the current watch area should also monitor the situation..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM through the watch expiration timeframe. Below is the Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 statement, NWS Taunton County Outline and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205161718.wwus20.html

NWS Taunton Severe Thunderstorm Watch County Outline:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday May 16th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

May 16, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Damaging Winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban/poor drainage flooding also possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton continue to be in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remains possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..

At 735 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of heavy rainfall over Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts extending to the eastern tip of Long Island NY with lighter showers moving eastward across Southwest Massachusets and Northwest Connecticut. This activity should move out of these areas by late morning. Also, at 735 AM, satellite imagery shows clearing moving into East-Central New York into Western New York with the cold front about to enter Western New York. This cold front will move into Eastern New York and Western New England late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening.

Based on Satellite imagery and computer model trends, conditions are expected to clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization with temperatures going into the 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Wind fields should be strong enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in a continuous squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or as one or two short lines of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding also possible. The greatest threat for severe weather remains in Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern Connecticut through Hartford and Tolland Counties. The timeframe of severe weather appears to be after 4 PM this afternoon. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday evening for this area.

Further east, the loss of daytime heating should mitigate the overall threat but an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm could occur in these areas. The overall threat in the east, however, is much less due to coastal influence and the timing of the front past peak heating.

Current caveats to the severe weather potential remain and include the amount of cooling aloft, degree of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur by midday/early afternoon and the timing of the cold front into the area. This will be monitored throughout the day today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 16th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential

May 16, 2012 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon into Early Wednesday Evening. Damaging Winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban/poor drainage flooding also possible..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Wednesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Evening..

Tonight, showers are moving through portions of Southern New England ahead of warm front which will move through the area overnight into early Wednesday Morning. A cold front will move into Eastern New York and Western New England Wednesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Evening. At this time, conditions are expected to clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization. Wind fields should be strong enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in a continuous line or one or two short lines of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding also possible. The greatest threat for severe weather is in Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern Connecticut through Hartford and Tolland Counties. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon into early evening for this area.

Caveats to the severe weather potential include the amount of cooling aloft, degree of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur as quickly as currently anticiapted and location and intensity of the wind fields over the current SPC depicted slight risk area. This will be better understood on Wednesday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon into early evening. Another Coordination Message will be issued by 900 AM Wednesday to update the threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

« 1 … 179 180 181 182 183 … 205 »