Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #4

Hello to all..

..Large Hurricane Irene Poised to Strike Southern New England. Track adjusted slightly eastward. Hurricane and Tropical Strom Watches issued. Preparations to protect life and property should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening..
..A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Merrimack River Massachusetts through Watch Hill Rhode Island and includes all islands. Inland, the Hurricane Watch is in effect for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts as well as all of Rhode Island except for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, the remainder of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Damaging Tropical Storm to Hurricane Force Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats. The watch issuances mean increased confidence in this scenario with further details likely provided this evening.
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The westward shift in the models was replaced by a slight eastward shift in some of the models. One should not pay attention to these shifts especially where much of the region will be on the damaging wind/severe weather side of this large hurricane and further modifications in track can occur. This is explained in detail in this coordination message. The official NHC track has been shifted slightly eastward..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests elsewhere in New England closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets have stood down and will reactivate with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center Saturday Morning lasting through the weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Large Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of large Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

As of the 5 AM National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center Advisory package, Hurricane Watches have been expanded to include the entire Southern New England coast from the mouth of the Merrimack River through north of Sandy Hook New Jersey including all islands. The Hurricane Watch extends inland to include Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts as well as all of Rhode Island except for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island. In the Hurricane Watch area, the potential exists for damaging winds with the potential for sustained and/or wind gusts to hurricane force.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, the remainder of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island. In this area, sustained winds and gusts to tropical storm force causing wind damage are possible. A Flood Watch is now posted for Saturday Evening through late Sunday Night for all of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area except for Cape Cod and the islands.

It is difficult to get into more specific impacts but Heavy, floding Rains, Strong Winds to Tropical Storm and hurricane force, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. The watches depict the latest thinking in terms of the potential for tropical storm force and hurricane force winds at this time. Modifications to these watches to warnings will likely occur this evening or Saturday Morning. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, remaining interests in New England should monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas and have deactivated, along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was reissued Friday Morning by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 100 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

There have been some questions on the further westward track in the computer models seen previously. These wobbles and changes are expected for another few model cycles. After trending west late Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, some models have started the trend eastward once again and the official NHC track guidance has been moved east. Irene is a large hurricane and there will be various significant impacts across the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. In the next 12 to 24 hours, further specifics and better run-to-run consistency on the track should take hold. Being on the eastern end of Irene means a greater risk for damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding in South Coastal Massachusetts. Only if Irene tracks farther inland would this reduce some of the threats of Irene below hurricane strength due to land interaction but with some of the eastward shift in some of the reliable model guidance, that still isn’t the most likely scenario and people should still prepare as if a hurricane could impact the region particularly with Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches now in effect for the region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions and have these plans completed by Saturday Evening. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Large Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England and preparations to protect life and propery should now be rushed to completion by Saturday Evening. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement, Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Large Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Irene Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted Friday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #3

Hello to all..

..Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene is making its way toward the US East Coast and may intensify slightly as it approaches. Its current expected track will then be to impact the Carolina Coast tracking to a position over or just inside the Outer Banks of North Carolina with potential impact to New England in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to early Monday timeframe. All of Southern New England is in the ‘cone of uncertainity track error’ for the extended period. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats..
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The westward shift in the models late last night through this morning has now been followed in an eastward shift in some of the models. One should not pay attention to these shifts especially where much of the region will be on the damaging wind/severe weather side of this large hurricane and further modifications in track can occur. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests along the US East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic northward to New England closely monitor the progress of Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Nets have stood down and will reactivate with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center Saturday Morning lasting through the weekend..
..Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene. Further monitoring and preparations should be made to prepare for the potential of impact from Major Hurricane Irene..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene has moved away from the Bahamas after causing significant damage on portions of the island chain. Irene is gradually turning northward, taking aim on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, followed by a track parallel to the coast towards New York City, Long Island and New England. The current NHC track brings the system up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, along the coast of New Jersey, Western long Island and then on a track towards Southern New England as a hurricane. Models are in decent agreement, however, we are still about 3 days out and the details and exact track could change. There are track errors of up to 150-175 miles over this period that could still occur. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ is over all of Southern New England with the latest forecast package. It is difficult to get into any specific impacts but Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, interests along the US East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic northward to New England should monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas and have deactivated, along with WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center. See their respective net links and the link to WX4NHC for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. A rip current risk statement was issued Thursday Evening by NWS Taunton. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Risk Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Major Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Major Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 200 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

There have been some questions on the further westward track in the computer models. These wobbles and changes are expected for another few model cycles. After trending west late Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, some models have started the trend eastward once again. Irene is a large hurricane and there will be various significant impacts across the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. In the next 24 hours, further specifics and better run-to-run consistency on the track should take hold. Being on the eastern end of Irene means a greater risk for damaging winds, severe weather and coastal storm surge flooding in South Coastal Massachusetts. Only if Irene tracks farther inland would this reduce some of the threats of Irene below hurricane strength due to land interaction but with some of the eastward shift in some of the reliable model guidance, that still isn’t the most likely scenario and people should still prepare as if a hurricane could impact the region unless model guidance converges further west.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should continue reviewing and start acting on their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advice from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Major Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted either Friday Morning or Friday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective as well as the status on Watches and Warnings for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator    
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday August 25th, 2011 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms becoming more likely this Thursday afternoon and evening with the greatest threat over interior Southern New England. Damaging Winds, Large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and perhaps even isolated supercells are the primay threats..
..Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over portions of Western and Central New England but weather models are indicating drying that will take place and breaks will occur. Doppler Radar is showing an area of rain over South-Central New York and Eastern Pennsylvania moving rapidly east-northeast at 800 AM and may affect the region in the morning if it holds together before potential clearing in the afternoon. If the clearing occurs as expected, wind shear will be more than sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #2

Hello to all..

..Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene is expected to continue to intensify and potentially become a Category 4 hurricane and lash the Bahamas through Thursday. Its current expected track will then be to impact the Carolina Coast tracking to a position over the Outer Banks of North Carolina with potential impact to New England in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the late Saturday to Sunday timeframe All of Southern New England is in the ‘cone of uncertainity track error’ for the extended period. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England remain potential threats..
..The threat from Irene is far different from the threat Hurricane Earl posed in 2010. This is explained in detail in this coordination message..
..The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises that Interests along the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England closely monitor the progress of Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net remain active monitoring conditions in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. They will likely be active Thursday for the Bahamas and again Friday for the Carolinas..
..Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene. Further monitoring and low-level preparations should be made to prepare for the potential of impact from Major Hurricane Irene..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time Saturday Afternoon lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene..
..ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area..

Dangerous Major Hurricane Irene has slammed the Bahamas with tropical storm to hurricane force conditions throughout much of the day and could intensify to Category 4 strength. Irene will pull away from the Bahamas and then take aim on the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England. The current NHC track brings the system up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then on a track towards Southern New England as a hurricane. Models are in very good agreement, however, we are still about 4 days out and the details and exact track could change. There are track errors of up to 200 miles over this period that could still occur. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ is over all of Southern New England with the latest forecast package. It is difficult to get into any specific impacts but Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats. For New England hurricanes, Heaviest rain are along and to the west of the track with potential for pockets of damaging winds. On the east side of the track, rainfall will be less but a much greater threat for widespread damaging winds. In the latest NHC advisories, interests along the US East Coast from the Carolinas northward to New England should monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. High Surf Advisory Statements will likely be issued later this week and also the surf zone forecasts will provide more information. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Information (Not Issued Yet):
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

There have been a number of questions from Non-Governmental Organizations and Emergency Management regarding the track of Irene and the track with Earl. There are some significant differences here and they are as follows:

1.) The overall model guidance track of Irene is west of the overall model guidance with Earl.
Last year, Hurricane Earl’s midpoint guidance was about 50-100 miles offshore of Nantucket with some wobbles as far west as the mid to Outer Cape and between Nantucket and Marthas Vinyeard. With Major Hurricane Irene, the west most guidance is the New York City area and Western Long Island New York with the eastern most guidance just east of the Outer Cape and Nantucket. The midpoint of the guidance is somewhere over Southern New England for Major Hurricane Irene. Models have been persistent with this track and that’s why this is different from Earl. There can still be 200 nautical mile track error and that will impact specific conditions but Irene’s impact will be larger than Earl’s was last year. As we get closer, the details will be better known.

2.) Irene is expected to be a stronger system than Earl
With Earl in 2010, he weakened fairly quickly from a strong Category 3 to a Category 1/Tropical Storm. With Irene, she is expected to be a much stronger system as she comes through the region. This will also impact conditions over the region along with the closer track.

3.) The trough at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will amplify much more than the interaction between the trough axis and Earl in 2010. This is another factor in why Irene’s track will be closer to the coast than Earl’s was in 2010 resulting in more significant impact by Irene this year than Earl in 2010.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution and start considering low-level preparations of those plans. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below and via a hurricane preparedness guide with a link to that listed below as well:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/hurricanePreparedness.pdf

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely some time Saturday Afternoon lasting through Monday for impact of Major Hurricane Irene. ARES/RACES/MARS/EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of Major Hurricane Irene and seek advise from local leadership on stand-by status for their area.

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory/track information on Major Hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Track Map provided by the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025514.shtml?5-daynl#contents

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time Thursday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator   
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday August 25th, 2011

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Thursday Afternoon and Evening with a cold front moving into the area. Heating and destablization in question due to cloud cover. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. NWS Taunton and SPC are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather on Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Timeframe will be mid-afternoon into evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This message abridged to focus on Hurricane Irene Coordination Messages with the next one to be posted by 1130 PM This evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108241732.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hurricane Irene Coordination Message #1

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Irene is expected to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane and lash the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the next couple days. Its current expected track will then be to impact the Carolina Coast tracking to a position over the Outer Banks of North Carolina with potential impact to New England in the Sunday to Monday timeframe..
..Multiple Models are in agreement on a potential impact to Southern New England in the Sunday to Monday timeframe but we are still 5 or more days out and things could change. All of Southern New England is in the ‘cone of uncertainity track error’ for the extended period. The extent on specifics of impact are too early to state at this time but Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England are potential threats..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net are both active monitoring conditions in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. They will likely be active Wednesday and Thursday..
..Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Hurricane Irene. This message’s intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks begin the monitoring process..

Hurricane Irene has been lashing the Turks and Caicos Islands with tropical storm to hurricane force conditions throughout much of the day and this will spread into much of the Bahamas over the next couple days. The current NHC track brings the system through the Bahamas and then up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Outward to 5 days, Irene is expected to move towards our region of New England. Models are in very good agreement, however, we are still about 5 or more days out and much could change. There are track errors of up to 250 miles over this period that could still occur. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ is now reaching all of Southern New England with the latest forecast package. It is difficult to get into any specific impacts but Heavy Rains, Gusty Winds, and Coastal Flooding to South Coastal New England are all potential threats.

The VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active over the past couple days for Irene’s impact on Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

High Surf conditions will begin to affect the New England coast in a few days. Swells and Rip Currents can be very dangerous to both the experienced and inexperienced swimmer. High Surf Advisory Statements will likely be issued later this week and also the surf zone forecasts will provide more information. See links below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Information (Not Issued Yet):
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Surf Zone Forecast Information:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on&issuedby=BOX&product=SRF

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Irene. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt

Once again, Hurricane Irene should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Irene are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Irene Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Irene Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time Wednesday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Irene and significant updates to Irene’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator   
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday August 21st 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Sunday with the potential for a more widespread severe weather event for interior sections of Southern New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and Urban/Poor Drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Sunday Afternoon and Evening particularly over Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but all areas should montior the situation. Timeframe looks to be towards mid to late Sunday afternoon and evening but could start as early as 1 PM..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Sunday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in portions of interior Southern New England. While Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut are the highest areas of concern, areas to the east could also be affected depending on the timing of a very strong cold front sweeping through the area and the degree of destablization over the region.

Weather models are indicating more instability than previous runs concerning a potential severe weather event for Sunday. The key here will be the amount of sunshine through the day tomorrow and the amount of destablization. Wind shear profiles, as they have been on several events this summer, look very strong and favorable for severe weather. Cooling aloft is expected to occur similar in magnitude to Friday’s severe weather event but different from Friday’s severe weather event is the stronger winds aloft that are expected Sunday. Presuming enough heating and destablization can occur, this could lead to Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms or potential squall line formation over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor draiange flooding as the main threats. If there are more clouds and less destablization, the severe weather could be more isolated to scattered but with the amount of shear and cooling aloft presenting a low instability/high shear environment, there is still likely to be a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this scenario as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Ops could start as early as 1 PM or as late as 3-4 PM. This will be adjusted Sunday Morning prior to the next coordination message which will be sent by 1130 AM Sunday. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Oulook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108201723.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob

Hello to all..

The last hurricane to make a direct hit on Southern New England was Hurricane Bob on August 19th, 1991 and Friday marked the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob’s landfall in the region. Hurricane Bob caused extensive damage in Southern New England from hurricane force winds and storm surge as well as from heavy rainfall and flooding. While it has been 20 years since the last hurricane to directly impact Southern New England as a hurricane, tropical systems have made their mark on New England during this period with tropical storm conditions and in some cases hurricane force wind gusts to parts of the region such as what occurred with Hurricane Edouard over Cape Cod and the Islands in September 1996 and Tropical Storm Bertha over much of the Southern New England coast in July 1996. Other tropical storms that had some impact on the region with heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds included Tropical Storm Hannah in September 2008, Hurricane Floyd, which affected the region as a tropical storm in September 1999 and Tropical Storm Danny in July 1997. There have also been remnants of tropical systems over the years that have brought flooding and severe weather to the region.

While it has been 20 years since the last direct impact by a hurricane to Southern New England, we are approaching the peak of hurricane season. Now is the time to prepare for the new season. Even if a hurricane does not strike the region, you will be more prepared for any other weather related disaster scenarios that could occur during the winter or other timeframes.

To commemorate Hurricane Bob’s landfall on Southern New England, NWS Taunton issued a Public Information Statement concerning Hurricane Bob highlighting some of his impacts and that despite Bob’s significant hit to the area, he was not a major hurricane and the last major hurricane strike was Hurricane Carol in 1954. Below is the Public Information Statement commemorating the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Bob:

NOUS41 KBOX 191513
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-200241-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1112 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

…20 YEARS SINCE HURRICANE BOB HIT NEW ENGLAND…

THE LAST TIME THAT NEW ENGLAND TOOK A DIRECT HIT FROM A HURRICANE
WAS 20 YEARS AGO…ON AUGUST 19 1991…WHEN HURRICANE BOB HIT
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS BAD AS BOB WAS…IT WAS ONLY A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE LAST TIME THAT NEW ENGLAND WAS HIT BY
A MAJOR HURRICANE…CATEGORY 3…WAS IN 1954 WHICH IS 57 YEARS AGO.

HURRICANE BOB DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON AUGUST 16
1991…THEN STEADILY INTENSIFIED AND REACHED HURRICANE STATUS ON
THE EVENING OF AUGUST 17. BOB STRENGTHENED AND ACCELERATED
NORTHEASTWARD. THE EYE OF BOB PASSED OVER BLOCK ISLAND, RI AT
APPROXIMATELY 130 PM ON AUGUST 19 AND MADE LANDFALL OVER
NEWPORT, RI SHORTLY BEFORE 2 PM.

HURRICANE BOB BROUGHT SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF RHODE ISLAND AND MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BLEW
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. WIND DAMAGE TO
TREES AND UTILITY POLES WAS COMMON AND RESULTED 60 PERCENT OF
RESIDENTS IN SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
LOSING POWER. APPLE AND PEACH ORCHARDS THERE WERE EXTENSIVELY
DAMAGED.

COASTAL COMMUNITIES BORE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 75 AND 100 MPH. GUSTS TO 125 MPH WERE RECORDED IN BREWSTER
AND NORTH TRURO ON CAPE COD…AND ALSO IN WETHERSFIELD CONNECTICUT.
THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND…OF 100 MPH…WAS RECORDED IN NORTH
TRURO. BLOCK ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 105 MPH WHICH WAS THE MAXIMUM SPEED OF THAT EQUIPMENT.
THERE WERE 4 REPORTS OF TORNADOES AS BOB CAME ASHORE. THE LOWEST
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS RECORDED BY THE USS VALDEZ WHILE IN THE EAST
PASSAGE OF NARRAGANSETT BAY…WITH A READING OF 28.47. 

HURRICANE BOB CAUSED A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE RHODE
ISLAND SHORE…BUT DROVE A SURGE OF 10 TO 15 FEET INTO BUZZARDS BAY.
THE HIGHEST SURGES…12 TO 15 FEET…WERE OBSERVED IN ONSET…
BOURNE…MASHPEE…AND WAREHAM AT THE HEAD OF BUZZARDS BAY.
COVE ROAD…IN MATTAPOISETT MASSACHUSETTS…HAD 29 OF 37 HOMES
DESTROYED WHILE ANGELICA POINT MASSACHUSETTS LOST 32 OF 35 HOMES
ALONG THE SHORE. BOAT DAMAGE WAS SIGNIFICANT WITH MANY BOATS TORN
FROM THEIR MOORINGS. SOME SOUTH FACING BEACHES ON MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET LOST UP TO 50 FEET OF BEACH DUE TO EROSION.

AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES…HEAVY RAIN
WAS FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE STORM. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
RAIN OCCURRED ACROSS ALL OF RHODE ISLAND EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION…WITH THE HIGHEST READING OF 7.01 INCHES IN FOSTER. LESS
THAN AN INCH OF RAIN OCCURRED ON CAPE COD TO THE EAST OF THE
TRACK…BUT THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND STORM SURGE OCCURRED.

BOB WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SIX DEATHS IN THE REGION…ALL IN
CONNECTICUT. TOTAL DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS APPROXIMATELY
680 MILLION DOLLARS.

THIS INFORMATION WAS TAKEN FROM A PAPER ENTITLED “SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES, A NINETY-EIGHT YEAR SUMMARY
1909-1997″ BY DAVID R. VALLEE AND MICHAEL R. DION, NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE – TAUNTON, MA.

$$
FIELD

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday August 19th 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area, particularly interior areas. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Threat will be in the form of strong thunderstorms to isolated pulse type severe thunderstorms over the region due to lack of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely this afternoon and evening..

At 715 AM, satellite imagery showed mostly clear conditions with some patchy clouds that should burn off over parts of the region later this afternoon. This should allow for strong heating and destablization over the region. In addition, a cold pool of temperatures aloft should also support more destablization over the region. A mitigating factor for today will be the lack of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Putting this all together, there will be isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms with a few isolated pulse type severe thunderstorms over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely this afternoon and evening. This will be the last complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator          
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday August 19th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Friday Afternoon into the early evening across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Weak wind fields aloft should preclude a significant severe weather outbreak but cooler temperatures aloft combined with daytime heating may allow pulse type isolated severe thunderstorms along with strong thunderstorms to form over the area and be a bit more widespread than today when an isolated strong thunderstorm over Ashburnham Massachusetts dumped 1.5″ of rain in 30 minutes and produced pea sized hail..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday Afternoon into early evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

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