Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are likely across a number of locations in Southern New England this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is from 2-10 PM Thursday with a possibility of a storm or two forming an hour or two earlier in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Cape Cod and the Islands are in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

A round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected Western Massachusetts last night from Western Worcester County westward. Wind damage was in isolated to scattered pockets. There were numerous reports and photos of a wall/funnel cloud with one of the severe thunderstorms but no tornadic damage was found. The Local Storm Report for last night’s severe weather can be seen via the following link:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007230211.nwus51.html

If any spotters or Amateur Radio Operators know of any additional damage reports or have photos etc. from yesterday’s severe weather, send the information along as a reply to this message, via our Facebook or Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org

Turning our attention to today’s severe weather potential. A cold front will bring less humid conditions to the region for the next few days. Out ahead of the cold front, we should have sufficient heating, destabilization and wind shear for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Thursday are as follows:

1.) Radar and satellite imagery shows a few light showers and light clouds into parts of Western Connecticut, this could slow down heating and reduce destabilization in that area. Much of the rest of the region, however, is destabilizing with full sunshine which should produce high instability.
2.) Wind shear is a bit marginal but should be sufficient given the cold front acting as a strong triggering mechanism along with the expected high instability. Models indicate good updraft potential that should allow for hail and strong to damaging winds to develop.
3.) The severe weather potential would increase if organized short lines or squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms develops in the region. The best chance for severe weather is across interior Southern New England and particularly from Hartford to Willimantic to the Boston area north and west.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. This will be the last coordination message on Thursday’s severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007231237.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe has shifted to the 3-10 PM Wednesday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and Eastern Connecticut into Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This represents a shift west in the highest severe weather potential and will be highly dependent on warm frontal position and heating and destabilization..
..It is also noted that there continues to be a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England Thursday. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages and will depend on the evolution of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

After a brief break in the humidity on Tuesday, a warm front will bring the humidity back into the region during Wednesday Afternoon and evening and allowing for the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Wednesday are as follows:

1.) The position of the warm front and how far north it makes it through Southern New England. Recent model trends have shifted it back a bit to the southwest so that the warm front will be through at least Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut but not into parts of East-Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island so the slight risk area was shifted a bit westward and areas to the east continue to be in a marginal risk for severe weather. The position of the warm front and the ability for the region to heat and destabilize behind the warm front will determine the severe weather potential in the area.
2.) There have been some showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday Morning and they have swung through the area. Satellite imagery shows clearing to allow for heating and destabilization and the key factor will be that heating and destabilization and if that continues in the warm sector with the warm frontal passage.

It is noted that there is also a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England for Thursday. The severe weather potential for Thursday is associated with a cold front and there maybe wider coverage across the region for severe weather on Thursday though some of this will hinge on what develops for strong to severe thunderstorms and any cloud cover from Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Another coordination message on the Thursday severe weather potential will be posted either by 1100 PM Wednesday Evening or 1000 AM Thursday Morning depending on severe weather operations this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is between 12-9 PM Wednesday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts, Most of Connecticut, and the Northwest corner of Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather and extreme Southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Essex County, Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..It is also noted that there is a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England Thursday. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

After a brief break in the humidity on Tuesday, a warm front will bring the humidity back into the region during Wednesday Afternoon and evening and allowing for the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Wednesday are as follows:

1.) The position of the warm front and how far north it makes it through Southern New England. Recent model trends have shift it further northeast so that the warm front will be through at least Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island and has resulted in an upgrade in severe weather risk to slight risk in the last Day-2 Convective Outlook.
2.) There could be some showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday Morning swinging through the area. Clearing to allow for heating and destabilization after this precipitation moves through is another key factor in the severe weather potential. High resolution models are currently showing some level of clearing to allow severe weather development for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

It is noted that there is also a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England for Thursday. The severe weather potential for Thursday is associated with a cold front and there maybe wider coverage across the region for severe weather on Thursday. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200721_1730.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day3otlk_20200721_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appears lower than it was yesterday and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pulled Southern New England out of a marginal risk for severe weather. Weather models have handled the overnight isolated to scattered showers and general thunderstorms poorly, however, and may not handle activity for later this afternoon and early evening correctly..
..Will continue to monitor the potential for Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts despite the lower risk for this activity than noted Sunday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding would be the main threats if any isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are able to develop. Best timeframe for any severe weather potential is 2-6 PM today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening understanding the potential is lower than noted Sunday Evening..

Another day of intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England Monday despite the unexpected isolated to scattered shower and general thunderstorm activity that occurred this morning. A cold front will swing through the area Monday afternoon and evening. The potential for severe weather is less than noted Sunday Evening but will still be monitored in case any isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can develop. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The ability of the atmosphere to heat up given morning cloud cover and isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Satellite imagery shows strong clearing and clouds thinning over the region so this should not be a significant factor.
2.) The amount of forcing or triggering in the atmosphere. This is strongest north of Southern New England.
3.) Drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere may not allow strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and keep them to more lower topped showers or general thunderstorms. If models incorrectly diagnose too much dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, that would mean a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening in much of Southern New England away from Southeast Coastal New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours with the potential for urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts away from the southeast coast in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

Another day of intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England Monday. A cold front will swing through the area Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front with the time of max heating and destabilization
2.) The amount of forcing or triggering in the atmosphere. It could be strongest north of Southern New England but with the atmosphere so unstable, the instability could compensate for less triggering in the atmosphere and it may only take a small trigger in the atmosphere to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) The marginal wind shear and whether this will be sufficient for strong to damaging winds. Its noted that in Michigan, wind gusts over 80 MPH occurred with severe thunderstorms along the cold front. Its possible wind fields could be stronger than modeled and will bear watching.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200719_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The hottest stretch of weather so far in the Summer 2020 season is expected across most of Southern New England Sunday and Monday. Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Monday for much of Southern New England and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather on Monday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Nortfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 102 degrees expected. Even in areas not included in the heat advisory, use caution outside if doing a lot of physical activity and drink plenty of liquids as heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday. Additional updates on the severe weather potential for Monday will be posted by Sunday Evening and again Monday Morning. This will likely be the only update on the intense heat and humidity expected for Sunday into Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3126090854151931/3126089067485443/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day3otlk_20200718_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

This week of Monday July 13th through Friday July 17th is Hurricane Preparedness Week in Southern New England per NWS Boston/Norton. The NWS Boston/Norton office has issued Public Information Statements all this week promoting hurricane preparedness. The statements and the hurricane safety preparedness web page can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

Various local and state emergency management agencies in Southern New England have also acknowledged NWS Boston/Norton hurricane preparedness week with information on their web sites and social media outlets. We hope this information is useful for hurricane preparedness as we enter the peak of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season over the next couple of months.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today across much of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and North-Central and Northeast Connecticut except for Cape Cod and the Islands for late this Tuesday Morning through Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Morning through Evening..

A cold pool of air in the upper level of the atmosphere associated with an upper level low will swing through Southern New England late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Evening. This will tap into sufficient instability and destabilization from daytime heating and marginally sufficient wind shear for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. Key factors will be the cold pool and cooling aloft being able to compensate for weaker forcing and triggering in the atmosphere and marginally sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Morning through Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations and monitoring mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007141350.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across all of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday Afternoon and Evening with the highest potential in Northeast Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, and Eastern Massachusetts away from the southeast coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island areas with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will move into the area at the time of peak heating Monday Afternoon and Evening. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization along with strong wind shear to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the potential severe weather for Monday that will affect is magnitude is as follows:

1.) Showers and associated cloud cover swung through the area this morning with clear skies and clearing conditions across the region. This will allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for later in the afternoon and evening for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Ability for stronger wind shear and expected high levels of instability to overcome a few unfavorable parameters in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
3.) Within the marginal risk area, the best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms is across Eastern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts outside of southeast coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement on severe weather potential, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007131532.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across all of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday Afternoon and Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday. Threat timeframe is between 1-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will move into the area at the time of peak heating Monday Afternoon and Evening. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization along with strong wind shear to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the potential severe weather for Monday that will affect is magnitude is as follows:

1.) There could be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms early Monday Morning with associated cloud cover. It is expected that this will move out and allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for later in the afternoon and evening but if cloud cover were to linger, it could reduce the severe weather potential.
2.) Ability for stronger wind shear and expected high levels of instability to overcome a few unfavorable parameters in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200712_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box