Storm Coordination Message #2 – Coastal Storm Hazards
Hello to all…
..Coastal Storm will take aim at portions of Southern New England Sunday Morning through Sunday Evening. Track and intensity of the system is a bit lower confidence than normal at this time range and model trends over the next 12 hours should allow us to get a better handle on this coastal storm system..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday for Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Northwest Rhode Island for 5-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of around 40 MPH inland to 45-50 MPH at the coast. The snow could be heavy and wet and could lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night for Nantucket for 4-7″ of snow and wind gusts to 50 MPH. In this area, uncertainty exists on snowfall amounts due to potential mixed precipitation. If snow amounts of 4″ or more occurs, the snowfall along with strong winds will have the potential to bring isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts..
..Franklin County Massachusetts will see a light snowfall or possibly a snowfall up to Winter Weather Advisory levels..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night..
A coastal storm is taking aim on Southern New England for Sunday Morning through late Sunday Night. Model guidance is coming into gradual agreement on the track, speed and intensity of the storm but uncertainty is higher than normal for a storm system that will start impacting the area in about 24 hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) There has been some back and forth in the models regarding how far northwest the accumulating snowfall gets as well as amounts in these areas. Less snowfall would occur if a trend to the south and southeast occurs while a track closer or inside the 40 North/70 West benchmark as some of the models predict would bring heavier snowfall in these areas. There could also be a sharp cutoff between the accumulating to heavy snows and a much lighter snowfall. Southeast New England is where the highest confidence of heavy snowfall is and that’s why the Winter Storm Warnings have been posted in this area with Winter Storm Watches expanded northwest as confidence is growing on plowable snowfall meeting Winter Storm criteria but there remains uncertainty.
2.) The intensity of the storm will dictate any wind issues in addition to heavy snowfall across eastern and southeastern New England. Also, temperatures will be near freezing in Southeast New England which could result in a heavier wetter snow which coupled with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Some models bring some mixing to some coastal area particularly the islands and this will bear watching if a closer storm approach occurs and this is why a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Nantucket.
4.) The storm will be fast moving starting early to mid morning Sunday and finishing by mid-evening Sunday.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across much of Southern New England for this storm event Sunday Morning to Sunday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch/Warning Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: email@example.com
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