Page 60 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 5/11/20 Severe Weather Potential

May 11, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday. The greatest risk for severe weather is along, north and west of the I-95 corridor but all areas should monitor. The timeframe for the potential is 1-8 PM ET Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Note for Rhode Island SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations, SKYWARN Net activity will be on the NB1RI (formerly KA1RCI) repeater system for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity that moves into Rhode Island..

Very cold air aloft with sufficient wind shear and instability will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking and have changed little since the last update. Key factors for the severe weather potential include:

1.) Radar and Satellite imagery shows a warm front swinging through the area with clouds and showers but shows reasonable clearing behind that activity. That clearing with temperatures cooling aloft rapidly should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Moisture return as a warm front moves through the area through the late Morning and early afternoon hours of Monday.
3.) Wind shear values remain sufficient for strong to damaging wind potential and rotating storms that could enhance the hail threat.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into self-activation mode. Note for Rhode Island SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations, SKYWARN Net activity will be on the NB1RI (formerly KA1RCI) repeater system for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity that moves into Rhode Island. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 5/11/20 Severe Weather Potential

May 11, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

Very cold air aloft with sufficient wind shear and instability will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the severe weather potential include:

1.) Any cloud cover at the start of the day that is expected to clear to allow destabilization to take place with the cold air aloft.
2.) Moisture return as a warm front moves through the area early Monday Morning
3.) Wind shear values which have moved around a bit in intensity are now sufficient for strong to damaging wind potential and rotating storms that could enhance the hail threat.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200510_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Night 5/8/20-Saturday Night 5/9/20 Coastal Storm, Strong Wind and Arctic Cold Potential

May 9, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Strong Storm System and Unusually Cold Arctic Air for May will bring the potential for a coating to 2″ of snow in grassy areas particularly in the higher elevations of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut overnight into early Saturday Morning, minor coastal flooding during the early Saturday Morning high tide, strong to damaging winds in portions of Southern New England and the potential for Snow Squalls, Graupel and Small hail embedded with rain showers during the day Saturday and Saturday Night..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM to 9 PM Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands with a Wind Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM Saturday for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with Gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Areas outside the Wind Advisory could see wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range as well..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Night to 3 AM Saturday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding of shore roads in this area. South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see some low lying roads with a bit of splashover at the time of high tide tonight from 8-12 PM Friday Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor much of Saturday for strong wind gusts, wind damage, any snowfall accumulation reports and any reports of Snow Squalls and small hail/graupel in the region. Also, if snowfall were to reach 3″ or more, this would result in Wet Snow damage to trees and wires though this appears to be a remote possibility at this time..

An unusual combination of a coastal storm strengthening as it moves east of Southern New England and unusually cold Arctic Air for May will combine to produce one more light snowfall in grassy areas particularly in the higher elevations, strong to damaging winds and the potential for snow squalls and graupel and small hail embedded with the rain showers during the day Saturday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for this storm event include:

1.) Models have trended more inland and warmer with the storm system but there will still be the potential for light snow accumulations in Northwest Connecticut, Western and Northern Massachusetts. If it were to be a bit colder and snow amounts were 3″ or more, it could potentially induce some wet snow damage in these areas.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur during much of the day Saturday in the Wind Advisory areas with locations outside of the Wind Advisory seeing wind gusts of 40-45 MPH. Isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and power outages will be possible due to these winds.
3.) Snow Squalls and rain showers with small hail and graupel will affect portions of Southern New England over the course of the day Saturday and will bear monitoring.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor much of Saturday for strong wind gusts, wind damage, any snowfall accumulation reports and any reports of Snow Squalls and small hail/graupel in the region. Also, if snowfall were to reach 3″ or more, this would result in Wet Snow damage to trees and wires though this appears to be a remote possibility at this time.

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: National Hurricane Center National Hurricane Preparedness Week, New England Hurricane Webinars for 4th 5th and 6th graders and Hurricane Seasonal Outlook Info

May 5, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

The week of May 3rd through May 9th is the National Hurricane Center’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week. A link with hurricane preparedness information can be seen here:

National Hurricane Center – National Hurricane Preparedness Week:
https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness

In addition, for anyone with children interested in weather and hurricanes or for some stay at home learning opportunities, the National Hurricane Center is offering webinars in the Southern New England region for 4th, 5th and 6th graders on Tuesday May 12th and Thursday May 14th at 11 AM. These webinars have been offered for other states and recorded as well. More information is available at the following link:

Hurricanes at Home! Webinars from the National Hurricane Center for 4th, 5th, and 6th Graders:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/Hurricanes_at_Home.pdf

Finally, Colorado State University as well as the Penn State University seasonal hurricane outlooks have forecasted an above normal hurricane season. See seasonal outlook information below:

Colorado State University – Hurricane Seasonal Outlook:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf

Penn State University – Hurricane Seasonal Outlook:
http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/research/Hurricane2020.html

We hope everyone finds this information useful for preparedness and educational purposes.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Severe Weather Preparedness Week – 4/27/20 through 5/1/20 and Prior March Flood Preparedness Week Public Info Statements

May 4, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

This past week from April 27th through May 1st, 2020 was Severe Weather Preparedness Week in Southern New England. The following are Public Information Statements issued by NWS Boston/Norton from this past Severe Weather Preparedness Week which provides safety and preparedness information and some prior history on significant Southern New England severe weather events.

NWS Public Information Statement – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/severe_weather_preparedness.pdf

Also, back in March 2020, NWS issued Public Information Statements for Flood Safety Awareness Week. Those statements which provide safety, and preparedness information and some prior history on significant flood events are listed below:

NWS Public Information Statement – Flood Safety Awareness Week:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/flood_safety-awareness.pdf

We hope this safety and historical information will be helpful during severe weather and flood situations.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: NWS Boston/Norton Online SKYWARN Training Webinar With a Path to Spotter Certification Announced

May 2, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton will be sponsoring 3 SKYWARN Training Webinars with a path to spotter certification via an online quiz. The details on the sessions are as follows:

Thursday May 7th, 2020 at 630 PM
Saturday May 16th, 2020 at 1030 AM
Thursday May 21st, 2020 at 630 PM
-Note: All training dates are the same webinar – there will be different instructors for each session

Participants will learn:
-Basics of thunderstorm development
-How to identify potential severe weather features
-What information to report
-Basic severe weather safety

There will be an optional quiz available at the end via web link to become a registered NWS Spotter.

You will need a computer, tablet or phone to access the webinar. From a tablet or phone, it requires the free gotowebinar app.

Pre-registration is required. Register at: https://weather.gov/box/skywarn and click on the Training Schedule tab and the instructions follow on that page.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Night 4/30/20-Friday 5/1/20 – Heavy Rainfall and Strong Wind Potential

May 1, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Storm system overnight Thursday Night into Friday Morning will bring heavy rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut and wind gusts of around 40 MPH in any heavy convective showers and embedded thunderstorms and along East and south coastal New England, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for 1″ or more rainfall totals, strong wind gusts and any isolated wind damage reports. This will be the only coordination message on this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Weather Outlook and Rainfall Map..

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf?sid=box

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Afternoon/Evening 4/21/20 Severe Weather and Strong Wind Potential

April 21, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..A Strong Cold front will have the potential to bring Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail as the main threats during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and strong to damaging post frontal winds Tuesday Evening and to a lesser extent Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with Central and Southern Connecticut and Southwest Rhode Island in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts from 2-7 PM Tuesday and for Cape Cod and the Islands from 2-9 PM for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The Wind Advisory for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut is cancelled but wind gusts to around 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts are possible. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

A strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday and bring unusually cold air into the region. Ahead of the cold front is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and then along and behind the front is the potential for strong to damaging winds. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Surface based instability is limited, however, there will be a significant cold pool of air aloft and very strong winds aloft which will likely compensate for the lack of surface instability allowing for strong to severe thunderstorm development. There have already been numerous reports of small hail in Southern Connecticut with some morning shower and thunderstorm activity and we could see some of this activity late this morning into early this afternoon before the main cold front and possible squall line swings through the region.
2.) If there is greater surface instability, that would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms given other favorable parameters.
3.) Strong winds behind the cold front will be near or just above advisory levels with the greatest risk of strong wind gusts and will last into the first half of Wednesday and cause isolated pockets of wind damage. The strongest winds will be Tuesday Afternoon into early evening with the strongest winds in Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and East Coastal and Southeastern Massachusetts. The Wind Advisory has been dropped in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut but wind gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts are possible there for this afternoon and tonight. As we move into Wednesday, there will be wind gusts of around 40 MPH particularly in the first half of the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday PM 4/21/20-Wednesday AM 4/22/20 Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

April 21, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..A Strong Cold front will have the potential to bring Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail as the main threats during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and strong to damaging post frontal winds Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with Central and Southern Connecticut and Southwest Rhode Island in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area from 5 PM Tuesday to 3 AM Wednesday for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning..

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Tuesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory, Hazardous weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200420_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Friday Night 4/17/20-Saturday Morning 4/18/20 Winter Storm Potential

April 17, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A mid-April light to moderate snowstorm for interior Southern New England is possible to likely Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Heaviest snow is expected in interior Southern New England and especially the higher terrain but model trends have turned a bit colder with some snow accumulation in interior Southeast New England now expected and the snow is expected to be heavy and wet and in areas where snow accumulates greater than 3″, isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages could develop..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 9 PM Friday Night through 12 PM Saturday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow with isolated higher amounts especially in the higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet and will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 PM Friday Night through 10 AM Saturday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Essex, Suffolk, Middlesex, and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet with isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages in areas that receive more than 3″ of snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 1-10 AM Saturday for Southeast Providence County RI, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow. If snowfall amounts of 3-4″ occur, there could be isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages in this area..
..Areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory area along Southeast Coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands will receive a coating to 2″ of snow. It is noted some models bring some higher amounts in these areas and will be monitored but current projections are for 2″ or less of snow at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor for snowfall total reports and wet snow damage reports Friday Night into Saturday Morning with primary emphasis on Amateur Radio call-up nets after 4-5 AM Saturday Morning though checks on area SKYWARN Amateur Radio repeaters, the *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference 9123, IRLP 9123 New England reflector system and possibly DMR could occur any time during the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory timeframes. Pictures of this storm can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook/Twitter social media feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

A storm system will affect interior Southern New England with accumulating wet snow as rain changes over to snow during Friday Night and could come down heavily for a period of time during the overnight hours. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors for this storm system are as follows:

1.) Models are varying in where the heaviest snow will fall but has trended colder in recent runs. The heaviest snow is favored for Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and parts of Northern Connecticut with lighter but accumulating snow in parts of Northern Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts. Coastal areas will get the least amount of snow but will need to be monitored during the storm event for higher accumulations as some models bring more than a coating to 2″ of snow to coastal areas.
2.) The snow will be heavy and wet which will cut down on the snowfall to liquid water ratios but it also means any snowfall of 3″ or more could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages and this potential will need to be monitored. This is especially true for the higher elevations of interior Southern New England where the higher snow amounts are likely of around 6-7″ with isolated higher amounts.
3.) The snow will fall mostly overnight into early Saturday Morning. Given the timeframe, its a favorable factor for snow accumulation and could impact some roadways.
4.) How much cold air is available for snow accumulation and when does the changeover from rain to snow occur. This will be a factor in total snowfall and the current trend has been for colder conditions which means a bit more snow accumulation.
5.) There is greater potential for there to be a few hour period of 1″ per hour snowfall based on the model guidance for interior Southern New England. Coastal New England could see a rain/snow mix changing to snow with a coating to 2″ of snow on the grass being the most likely outcome but trends again will be monitored for a snowier scenario given the colder trend in the models.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall total reports and wet snow damage reports Friday Night into Saturday Morning. This will likely be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode but if a significant change occurs and time allows for an update, another update could be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow and Ice Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

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