Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible again today across Western and North-Central Massachusetts possibly extending into Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Massachusetts, strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Northern and Western Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM today to monitor the threat..

As has been the case since Wednesday, the region remains in a hot and very humid environment. The region will again have sufficient instability and wind shear for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Western to North-Central and possibly Northeast Massachusetts and into Northwest Connecticut. The question will be whether there is a sufficient trigger to get any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to form. They could affect the area outlined or be north and west of this area. This will be monitored through the day.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM today to monitor the threat. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with a line of activity over Western Connecticut and entering Western Massachusetts. Strong to Damaging Winds, heavy rain leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is possible Friday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for today and again Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton commenced at 345 PM Thursday to monitor today’s threat. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible again Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. A coordination message will be sent by 10 AM Friday for Friday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outloook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180802_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Morning into Wednesday Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather for extreme Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday..

The severe weather potential particularly for Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut has increased a bit as we approach the late Wednesday Morning into early Wednesday Evening timeframe. A warm front signaling the increase of Dewpoints and higher humidity will work through Southern New England this morning with some showers associated with it. After that passes through, there will be higher instability along with high shear as well as turning in the atmosphere. This should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and the timing of this could be as early as late morning through as late as early this evening. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threat. There had been some concerns about triggering the atmosphere in prior outlooks but the position of the warm front and its proximity may provide sufficient triggering for strong to severe thunderstorms development in western and central New England. There had also been concerns about cloud cover reducing the threat as well but models are still bringing in fairly high instability levels along with rather strong wind shear. The coverage of severe thunderstorms is expected to be isolated to scattered but those isolated areas could see a fairly potent severe weather event if the conditions line up as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England today and potentially reaching areas further east into portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts as a cold front will bring an end to the high humidity over the region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of New England and other parts of the Northeast in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1230 PM to monitor the severe weather potential for today..

Heating is occurring as yesterday’s convection has cleared out of the area. A cold front or trough with lesser humidity will swing through New England this afternoon and tonight. We have the heating to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. Wind shear profiles are actually a bit stronger than they were yesterday. The key to the aerial coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will be how much drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere effects thunderstorm development. This drier air could make the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms limited or very isolated. If the dry air does not stifle the development of thunderstorms, then the coverage over the area would be more substantial given the instability, wind shear, and triggering mechanisms in place.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1230 PM to monitor the severe weather potential for today. This will be the only coordination message as we move to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Another round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms is likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence around 100 PM lasting through Friday Evening..

Satellite imagery shows clear conditions except for low clouds along the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The clear conditions should allow for heating and destabilization across the area. A cold front will approach western New England and there should be sufficient wind shear along with cooling conditions aloft and sufficient heating and destabilization to bring an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat to this area. The timeframe for severe weather is after 2 PM Friday through early evening. Areas of Northern Massachusetts east of the current risk areas should also likely monitor this scenario as depending on timing, strong to severe thunderstorms could move into portions of this area. The marginal and slight risks for severe weather were shifted slightly eastward into parts of Central Massachusetts and most of Northern Connecticut for this update.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 100 PM lasting through Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1807271326.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. This potential is likely to continue into Thursday as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible anytime Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..

The very humid pattern will continue through at least Thursday across Southern New England. A cold front will slowly approach Southern New England on Wednesday. As we get into Wednesday Afternoon and evening, the tropical stream of moisture that was largely confined to west of New England outside of a few downpours will become more numerous in nature and potentially grow into thunderstorms as well if there is enough heating. There will be sufficient wind shear that if instability is sufficient, it would set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Night and it could last through Thursday as well. The main threats would be strong to damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding. Some localized areas of Western New England have received several inches of rain particularly from Monday’s heavy downpours and thunderstorms so these areas would be most vulnerable.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible anytime Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations active since 745 AM Sunday monitoring severe weather and flash flood potential. The isolated tornado and waterspout threat has diminished to a very low probability but general strong winds with gusts up to and possible over 50 MPH and heavier downpours causing urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats through mid to late afternoon..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all…

..After a beautiful Saturday, heat and humidity will return with a coastal type storm system along with the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued South-Coastal Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island into portions of Eastern Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions around and after 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible but an exact timeframe for Ops needs remains unclear so this will continue to be monitored..

A fairly intense coastal type storm system for July will affect the region Sunday. A strong warm front is still expected to traverse the region and along and behind the warm front, dewpoints will soar from the comfortable upper 50’s to lower 60’s to the sultry low to mid 70s. Based on the track of the low pressure system a bit further west, its possible that the threat for an isolated tornado and waterspout has diminished somewhat as the triple point of the low will be further west, however, that remains uncertain and the wind shear will still be more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms and there will be a level of turning in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado or waterspout with the warm front. The amount of instability will be more limited and will limit the coverage of the severe weather and it will put much of Southern New England in an environment of a low instability/high shear. That being said, instability does increase as the day wears on Sunday and if there is an overlap with the turning of the atmosphere associated with the warm front with that instability, it would create an environment that can produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and an isolated tornado/waterspout as the main severe weather threats. Heavy rainfall is also possible as thunderstorms may train along and behind the warm front and given its a coastal system it could setup in a band ahead of the low pressure center. This rainfall if it trains over the same areas could bring an urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flood potential that will need to be monitored. The focus areas of where this heaviest rainfall is unclear. It could be over a portion of Southern New England or just south and west of the region. A focus area of monitoring will be the rain moving from southeast to Northwest west of the lower pressure center offshore of southern New England and is moving northward with the coastal low. Also, in any heavier convective showers and as the warm frontal passage occurs, general strong wind gusts of between 35 and 50 MPH are possible particularly in coastal Southeast New England if the heavy convective showers or conditions allow those stronger winds to reach the surface.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions around and after 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible but an exact timeframe for Ops needs remains unclear so this will continue to be monitored. If Ops are initiated, a shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows stating Ops are initiated. If ops aren’t initiated and conditions and time allows for it, another complete coordination message may be issued by 10 AM Sunday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..After one last comfortable day, heat and humidity will return with a coastal type storm system along with the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South-Coastal Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island into portions of Eastern Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions late Saturday Night into Sunday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible..

A fairly intense coastal type storm system for July will affect the region late Saturday Night into Sunday. A strong warm front will traverse the region and along and behind the warm front, dewpoints will soar from the comfortable upper 50’s to lower 60’s to the sultry low to mid 70s. Wind Shear will be more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms and there will be a level of turning in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado or waterspout. The amount of instability will be more limited and will limit the coverage of the severe weather and it will put much of Southern New England in an environment of a low instability/high shear. These environments can produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and an isolated tornado as the main severe weather threats. Heavy rainfall is also possible as thunderstorms may train along and behind the warm front and given its a coastal system it could setup in a band ahead of the low pressure center. This rainfall if it trains over the same areas could bring an urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flood potential that will need to be monitored. The focus areas of where this heaviest rainfall is unclear. It could be over a portion of Southern New England or just south and west of the region. Also, in any heavier convective showers and as the warm frontal passage occurs, general strong winds of between 35 and 50 MPH are possible particularly in coastal Southeast New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions late Saturday Night into Sunday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

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