May 2013

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday May 29th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather Event

May 29, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possibly to likely today across Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut in the mid to late afternoon timeframe. Damaging winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible. The threat timeframe is from approximately 2-9 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT today lasting through early evening..

At 905 AM, Doppler Radar indicated an area of showers moving off the south coast of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts with another area of rain racing eastward from Central and Eastern New York that will move through Southern New England over the next 2-3 hours. Behind this area of rain, Satellite imagery as of 900 AM shows an expanding area of clearing that should move into the area. Presuming this clearing area moves over the area as modeled to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut in the mid to late afternoon timeframe as wind shear profiles are sufficient for severe weather development. Damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with isolated supercells possible.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT today lasting through early evening. This will most likely be the last complete coordination message on this threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 29th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather Event

May 29, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday Afternoon to Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban/poor-drainage flooding are the primary threats with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing this region in a slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe anytime between Noon and 9 PM. There is also a more limited severe weather threat with possible urban/poor drainage flooding issues with a complex of storms associated with the warm front currently evolving over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

At 905 PM, Doppler Radar shows a complex of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front with heavy rainfall and even an isolated severe weather threat over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania. This activity will move through Southern New England overnight into Wednesday Morning. The threat for any severe weather with this feature is limited but cannot be entirely ruled out. There is a slightly higher risk of urban and poor drainage flooding than severe weather with this complex.

As this activity moves out of the area Wednesday Morning, the question will become how much heating and destabilization can occur behind the warm front across Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut with good shear profiles in place as the warm front moves through this area and slows over Eastern New England. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur with the wind shear profiles in place, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe is between Noon and 9 PM and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1305281721.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Storm Behavior in New England Presentation by David Vallee – Hydrologist-In-Charge of the Northeast River Forecast Center – Thursday 5/30/13 at 700 PM at North Providence RI Public Library

May 26, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

Northeast River Forecast Center Hydrologist-In-Charge, David Vallee, will be giving a presentation on “Storm Behavior in New England – The Times They Are Changing”, Thursday May 30th, 2013 at 700 PM at the North Providence Public Library, 1810 Mineral Spring Avenue, North Providence RI. Details on the presentation can be seen below:

Much of New England has been experiencing an increasing trend in annual average temperature and annual average precipitation over the past two decades. During this same time period, the region has experienced an increasing number of moderate to major flood episodes, capped off locally by the devastating floods of 2010. Then, as if that wasn’t enough, two powerful tropical cyclones; Tropical Storm Irene and Hurricane Sandy struck the region producing a combination of flooding rains, widespread wind damage and devastating coastal flooding.

These significant weather events have been associated with a variety of storm types and have affected the region at different times of the year. The common thread in many of these episodes was the ability of each storm system to tap a tropical moisture source resulting in intense often slow moving systems capable of producing heavy rainfall. For Irene and Sandy, one classic New England Tropical Cyclone and one “Hybrid-type” storm, both displayed nature’s awesome power of wind and water. Irene featuring widespread wind damage over the Ocean State and Sandy provided a stark reminder of the increasing vulnerability of our coastline in the face of sea level rise.

North Providence RI Public Library link on the presentation:
http://www.nplib.com/2013/05/storm-behavior-in-new-england/

The presentation is free and open to the public. It is noted that this presentation is on the same date as the SKYWARN Training class in New Braintree, Massachusetts for those who may be interested in this presentation but committed to the SKYWARN Training Class in New Braintree, Mass.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1A – Thursday May 23rd, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

May 23, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 3 PM to monitor strong to severe thunderstorm potential. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Mesoscale Convective Discussion indicating a watch possible for portions of Southern New England. Also, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for South Coastal Rhode Island from 6-9 PM EDT due to a high spring tide and southwest winds pushing water into the bay causing possible minor coastal flooding in this area. Below is the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Convective Discussion, NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0779.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday May 23rd, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

May 23, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Another Round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The greatest threat area is in Western New England but areas from the I-95 corridor north and west may also see an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. SPC has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Key conditions for severe weather potential will again be the amount of daytime heating and destablization as wind/shear profiles would be favorable for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

At 745 AM, Satellite Imagery indicates cloud cover with some breaks over much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states with radar indicating a few scattered showers over the area. The key item for today’s severe weather potential will be the amount of heating and destablization over the area. If enough breaks in the cloud cover develop, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible to likely particularly over Western New England but possibly as far south and east as the I-95 corridor with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. If daytime heating is insufficent, thunderstorms with heavy downpours will be likely and there will be a need to monitor these storms for their flood potential over parts of the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thrusday Afternoon and evening. This will be the only complete coordination message to be issued on today’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are intiiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 22nd, 2013 Severe Weather Event

May 23, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..An isolated supercell bringing hail of Golf Ball Sized and larger affected portions of Conway into New Salem, Massachusetts and also brought rotating wall and funnel cloud sightings to these same areas as a Tornado Warning was issued for this cell in the late afternoon Wednesday 5/22/13. This storm weakened in Worcester County but produced isolated wind damage and hail up to Nickel sized in the Gardner, Mass area. Any further hail or any wind damage reports after the fact from this supercell would be greatly appreciated including any pictures of this activity. Pictures can be sent as reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org..
..Another threat for possible strong to severe thunderstorms is possible for Thursday. This will be highlighted in more detail on Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report on the events from today’s supercell that affected the region..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1305230030.nwus51.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 22nd, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

May 22, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today across much of Southern New England north and west of I-95. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Timeframe of severe weather threat is 2-9 PM this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the region in a slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 1 and 2 PM today..

At 930 AM, Satellite imagery indicated cloud cover over New York and New England but clearing working its way through the mid-Atlantic states and that is expected to work its way through New York and New England today. Radar showed an area of showers in New York State that will move northeast and likely miss the area. Provided sufficient heating and destabilization occurs, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across much of Southern New England north and west of the I-95 corridor with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the region in a slight risk for severe weather for today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 1 and 2 PM today. This will be the only coordination message on severe weather for today. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday May 21st, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

May 21, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible today across Southern New Hampshire, Northern Connecticut, Northern Rhode Island, Western, Central and Northeast Masssachusetts and interior Southeast Massachusetts. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 1 and 2 PM lasting through early evening..

At 1035 AM, Doppler Radar showed scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northern Massachusetts moving east. Additional thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon and evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe will be from 1-7 PM today. Satellite imagery shows sufficient clearing for heating and destablization and this will allow the formation for additional thunderstorms as heating continues. Shear profiles appear to be sufficient for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity. The threat area is across much of interior Southern New England and includes north-east coastal Massachusetts as well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence between 1-2 PM today lasting through early evening. This will be the only message issued on the severe weather threat for Tuesday. Additional severe weather threats exist in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe and will be highlighted as more details become known during this period. Below are the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: SKYWARN Training Schedule for 2013 Update – Sunday May 11th, 2013

May 12, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

Three additional SKYWARN Training classes have been added for the month of June and will be taught by Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators. Additional classes taught by Amateur Radio SKYWARN Coordinators will be added in July and August targeting other parts of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Below is the latest SKYWARN Training Schedule:

The following are SKYWARN Training Sessions booked for 2013. Further training
sessions will be booked over the course of the year so check back frequently
for updates.

Thursday May 16th, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Marlborough CT Fire Department
200 West Road
Marlborough, CT
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecaster
Registration: None Required

Tuesday May 21st, 2013: 7-10 PM:
“Alternatives”
50 Douglas Road
Whitinsville, MA
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecaster
Registration: None Required

Thursday May 30th, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Massachusetts State Police Academy
340 West Brookfield Road
New Braintree, MA
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecaster
Registration: None Required

Wednesday June 5th, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Holden Public Safety Building
1370 Main Street
Holden, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. Email Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com

Saturday June 8th, 2013: 10 AM-1 PM:
Concord Emergency Operations Center – 3rd Floor Training Room
209 Walden Street
Concord, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required – contact Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com or Steve Telsy-N1BDA at steve.n1bda@verizon.net
NOTE: Parking is limited at the station and folks are urged to park on Keyes Road public lot and carpool. A Google map can be seen at the following link: http://goo.gl/maps/4tWAj and Keyes Rd. is in the upper left side of the map just north of Route 62 (Main Street).

Monday June 10th, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Manchester Health Department Rooms: 162 and 164
1528 Elm Street
Manchester, NH
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecaster
Registration: None Required

Tuesday June 11th, 2013: 630-930 PM:
Masenic Regional High School
175 Turnpike Road
New Ipswich, NH
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecaster
Registration: None Required

Wednesday June 12th, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Whitman Police Department
20 Essex Street
Whitman, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. Email Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com

Monday June 17th, 2013: 7-10 PM:
Morton Hospital and Medical Center – Margaret Stone Conference Room
88 Washington Street
Taunton Mass.
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. RSVP via Rob Macedo-KD1CY via email at rmacedo at rcn dot com

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday May 11th, 2013 Possible Severe Weather Event

May 11, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible to likely over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Saturday Afternoon and Evening if sufficient heating and destabilization can occur with sufficient shear profiles ahead of a cold front. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban to poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe looks to be a bit later meaning after 300 or 400 PM Saturday Afternoon based on current models..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely late Saturday Afternoon and Evening. If no ops are initiated, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for severe weather today..

Satellite imagery as of Noon today shows cloud cover over the region however some breaks in the clouds have been noted in New York and Pennsylvania. The key item that will determine any severe weather threat continues to be the amount of heating and destabilization that can occur as warm and humid air moves into the area. If sufficient heating can occur, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible to likely over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Saturday Afternoon and evening after 300 or 400 PM. The timing is a bit later based on current trends and model runs. The primary threats would be for strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely late Saturday Afternon and Evening. If no ops are initiated, SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for severe weather today. This will be the last complete coordination message on the potential Saturday Afternoon/Evening severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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