June 2013

Flash Flood/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday June 30th, 2013 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

June 30, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential and Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible today particularly across Northern Connecticut, Western Massachusetts and Southwest New Hampshire through early-mid evening as a weak impulse in Northeast Pennsylvania moves in and affects portions of Western New England late this afternoon into early evening. Urban/poor drainage and small river/stream flooding are the primary threats with damaging winds and hail as the secondary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 430 PM EDT Sunday through early-mid evening to monitor flood/flash flood and severe weather potential. This will be the only message on Sunday’s severe weather potential. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoscale Convective Discussion on today’s potential..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1313.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Severe Weather/Flash Flood Coordination Message #2 – Saturday June 29th, 2013 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

June 29, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Another round of thunderstorms with flood and flash flood potential and Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail potential again across much of Southern New England this afternoon and evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of New England from Western Massachusetts northward through Southern New Hampshire in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather but all areas should monitor for thunderstorms with flood/flash flood potential and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT Saturday through evening to monitor flood/flash flood and severe weather potential..

Early this morning, south coastal Massachusetts from the Westport, Dartmouth, New Bedford and Fairhaven area through Cape Cod had a severe thunderstorm move through the area with pockets of wind damage, flooding and ground strikes of lightning as it went through the area. Another area of briefly heavy rain will affect this area over the next couple hours.

Satellite imagery shows significant clearing working its way through portions of Connecticut, Western Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. It is unclear how much further east the clearing will go but this clearing will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize and combined with good shear profiles will bring about another round of thunderstorms with flood and flash flood potential and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail potential as well. The greatest risk area appears to be across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but eastern areas should monitor as well. SPC has placed the area from Western Massachusetts to Southern New Hampshire northward into Northern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT Saturday through evening to monitor flood/flash flood and severe weather potential. This will be the last message on Saturday’s severe weather potential. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Flash Flood/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday June 29th, 2013 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

June 29, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..After Flash Flooding in parts of Northwest Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire Friday evening, the stagnant weather pattern of warm and humid conditions and thunderstorms with a flood to flash flood potential and possibly isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats will continue again Saturday Afternoon and Evening with the greatest threat in Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely again Saturday Afternoon/Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 1 PM Saturday with more complete information on the potential for flash flooding/severe weather Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday June 28th, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

June 28, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with flood to flash flood potential for urban areas and small rivers/streams, damaging winds and large hail possible this Friday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and possibly into Rhode Island depending on amount of clearing and heating that develops later today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this region in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible again this Friday Afternoon and Evening..

Thursday Evening into Friday Morning, some heavy rainfall occurred across Western Massachusetts into Western Connecticut with amounts of 1-2.5″ occurring. Amounts of around or less than 1″ occurred north and east of these locations. Central Hartford County Connecticut was impacted with flash flooding near the time of the evening commute Thursday Evening and SKYWARN Ops were active during that timeframe. Overnight the progressive nature of the rainfall kept significant flooding from occurring and most of the synoptic rainfall went into Eastern New York State.

As we get into today’s potential activity, there are a few showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall in the area this morning. These are expected to move out and weather models are expecting drier air at the mid-levels to cause skies to clear particularly over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut possibly into Rhode Island. If this clearing occurs as expected, this will set the stage for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and flood/flash flood potential for urban areas and small streams and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as well. SPC has placed this area in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for today. Shear profiles would be sufficient to support severe weather potential but the key for today will be the amount of heating and destabilization and clearing that occurs. Satellite imagery as of 830 AM were showing signs of clearing and clouds thinning across parts of Eastern New York and the mid-atlantic and that may enter parts of western and central New England later today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible again this Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday June 27th, 2013 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

June 27, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potential for Heavy Rainfall, urban/poor drainage and possibly small river/stream flooding from thunderstorms later Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning across much of Southern New England. An Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorm threat with damaging winds and large hail also is possible depending on amount of heating particularly over interior Western New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Thursday Afternoon into Friday Afternoon for all of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Thursday Afternoon and possibly Friday Morning depending on how the flash flood threat evolves as well as any severe weather potential..

On Wednesday, the strong to severe thunderstorm potential was not realized as the impulse in the atmosphere was displaced by the area that was most unstable from daytime heating. A few thunderstorms with heavy rainfall did occur but none were strong to severe.

For Thursday Afternoon into Friday Afternoon, the main concern is for flash flooding. At 730 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms over Eastern Pennsylvania moving northeast to east-northeastward. This should arrive in Southern New England later Thursday Afternoon and tonight bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Afternoon to Friday Afternoon for potential rainfall around 2″ with higher amounts in any thunderstorms that may track over the same area. The flood potential would be for urban/poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as a secondary threat across interior Western New England with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover over much of Southern New England, however, their is clearing noted over New York State and the mid-atlantic ahead of the area of rain and embedded thunderstorms in Eastern Pennsylvania tracking northeast to east-northeastward. It is possible that if that clearing can work into portions of interior Western New England that a few strong to severe thunderstorms could occur before evolving into more of a flood to flash flood threat. This will be monitored as we get into this afternoon.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Thursday Afternoon and possibly Friday Morning depending on how the flash flood threat evolves and any severe weather potential. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s weather. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday June 26th, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

June 26, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain likely today over much of Southern New England as heat and humidity continues to combine with weak disturbances in the atmosphere to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continued to have the region in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening..

Severe Weather potential for today still looks more active than Tuesday across the region as a more defined impulse and trigger will move into Southern New England as we get into the afternoon and evening hours with sufficient instability. This will set the stage for yet another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially more numerous than what occurred on Tuesday. It is noted on Satellite imagery that there is some clouds over New York State with the thickest clouds over Northern New York State but in Southern New England skies remain mostly sunny to sunny which should allow for sufficient destabilization of the atmosphere before any cloud cover moves into the area. This instability coupled with wind shear profiles that will be a bit stronger than the last two days should allow for a bit greater coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for today. The threat timeframe for severe weather should be anytime after 2-3 PM this afternoon.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message for Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Additional severe weather potential continues to exist for the remainder of this week into this weekend and will be monitored with coordination messages issued as required. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook.

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday June 26th, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

June 26, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Another Round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms potentially more numerous than Tuesday are expected across much of interior Southern New England and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather again on Wednesday with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence at 1 PM EDT Wednesday lasting through Wednesday Evening. The start time may be adjusted slightly as we get closer to the potential severe weather event Wednesday..

On Tuesday, strong to severe thunderstorms were more isolated today affecting portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut with isolated pockets of wind damage. Wind damage was a bit more concentrated in the Tolland to Willington to Ashford CT area where the only Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tuesday was issued in the NWS Taunton Coverage area. A bit less instability than Monday and less of a trigger helped to make for a more isolated severe weather threat for Tuesday.

As we get into Wednesday, a more defined impulse and trigger will move into Southern New England as we get into the afternoon and evening hours with greater instability. This will set the stage for yet another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially more numerous than what occurred on Tuesday. Instability should be sufficient coupled with wind shear profiles that we will be a bit stronger than the last two days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather on Wednesday with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence at 1 PM EDT Wednesday. This timeframe may be adjusted slightly as we get closer to the potential severe weather event Wednesday. The next coordination message will be issued by 1030 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1306251726.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1A – Tuesday June 25th, 2013 Severe Weather Potential Update

June 25, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 2 PM EDT today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Southern New England from the Cape Cod Canal north and west to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. This will be the last coordination message on the Tuesday 6/25/13 severe weather threat. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday June 25th, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

June 25, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity will continue today with the potential for another round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with urban and poor drainage flooding, strong to damaging winds and hail as the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Northern New York and Northern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather today with low severe weather probabilities extending into portions of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible again during this afternoon and tonight..

Yesterday, a triggering mechanism with cooling aloft allowed for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. For today, a triggering mechanism is a bit more questionable which may allow for less coverage and/or less intensity of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with urban and poor drainage flooding, strong to damaging winds, and hail as the primary threats are possible for today. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Northern New York and Northern New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather today with low severe weather probabilities extending into portions of Southern New England particularly northern and western portions of interior Southern New England. Some models indicate a line of thunderstorms possible with an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within that line of storms. Convective potential will be monitored throughout the day today.

Potential for severe weather will exist nearly every day this week into early next week. Coordination Messages will provide day-to-day updates on this potential as we move through the week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible again today during the afternoon and evening hours. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday June 24th, 2013 Severe Weather Potential

June 24, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Strong Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and an urban/poor drainage flooding risk expected late Monday Afternoon into Evening across portions of Southern New England particularly interior locations. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible as well but currently heavy rainfall is the main threat..
..There are thunderstorm chances each day this week with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. By later this week and weekend, a greater severe weather potential may exist. Coordination Messages will be issued over the course of the week breaking any thunderstorm/severe weather potential down on a day-to-day basis..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Monday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will be in Southern New England for much of this week allowing for temperatures in the low 90s away from the coast with 80s over coastal areas. As impulses track around the high pressure ridge that is allowing for the heat and humidity over the region, it will allow for thunderstorm development each day this week with the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The Severe Weather potential may increase as we get into late this week and this weekend. Coordination messages will break the potential down on a day-to-day basis.

For Monday, as we get into later this afternoon and this evening, an impulse will move into the region allowing for thunderstorm development. The main threat will be heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage flooding since wind shear profiles are weak but there is some potential of isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. Thunderstorms could develop as early as after 2 PM but are more likely after 500 PM starting in western interior locations. The setup may allow for thunderstorms to continue after sunset as cooling in the upper levels of the atmosphere allow thunderstorms to continue over the area and track into the rest of interior Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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