Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday May 27th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The threat looks confined now to Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut. It is a conditional threat contingent on the position of the back door cold front and the amount of atmospheric destabilization that takes place. Strong Winds and Hail are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has portions of Western New England in the 5% severe weather probability category..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible..
A backdoor cold front will gradually make its way through Eastern New England over the course of the day today. Backdoor cold fronts do not typically produce severe weather, however, the front will slow its progression as it gets into West-Central New England and if sufficient daytime heating allows for a sufficient amount of atmospheric destabilization, a disturbance moving northwest to southeast into Eastern New York and Western New England would be a triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut. Strong Winds and Hail would be the primary threats. The threat remains contingent on the position of the backdoor cold front and the amount of heating that can take place. If the backdoor cold front is able to swing through much of the region, little to no severe weather is expected but the current forecast places it in a location where Western New England could see isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Heating is a secondary concern for portions of Western New England but at this time, it looks to be sufficient for potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible. This is the last complete coordination message for this event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/5_27_14_severe_tstorm_graphic.jpg
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The threat looks confined now to Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut. It is a conditional threat contingent on the position of the back door cold front and the amount of atmospheric destabilization that takes place. Strong Winds and Hail are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has portions of Western New England in the 5% severe weather probability category..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible..
A backdoor cold front will gradually make its way through Eastern New England over the course of the day today. Backdoor cold fronts do not typically produce severe weather, however, the front will slow its progression as it gets into West-Central New England and if sufficient daytime heating allows for a sufficient amount of atmospheric destabilization, a disturbance moving northwest to southeast into Eastern New York and Western New England would be a triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and West-Central Connecticut. Strong Winds and Hail would be the primary threats. The threat remains contingent on the position of the backdoor cold front and the amount of heating that can take place. If the backdoor cold front is able to swing through much of the region, little to no severe weather is expected but the current forecast places it in a location where Western New England could see isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Heating is a secondary concern for portions of Western New England but at this time, it looks to be sufficient for potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible. This is the last complete coordination message for this event. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Facebook Graphic:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/5_27_14_severe_tstorm_graphic.jpg
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box