Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern still will turn active Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Evening in Western New England and across much of Southern New England on Thursday. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. As we get into later Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Wednesday and much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, the weather will turn active as we get into Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front will be gradually approaching Southern New England from the west and will begin to affect our region Wednesday Evening. This could bring the first round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms starting in Western New England Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Wednesday.

As we get into Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. Even without this event, the approaching cold front has the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday to much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday.

In terms of the exact track of Tropical Storm Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. As the system organizes and begins its expected shift to the north, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Wednesday afternoon into Thursday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England should monitor the track of Tropical Storm Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
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Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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