Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Post Severe Weather Coordination for Monday July 7th, 2014/Tuesday July 8th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A sizable severe weather event Monday across Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts with wind damage, large hail, and some pockets of flash flooding. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are part of this message below..
..Another isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm event is expected today across portions of interior Southern New England but could affect areas to the coast as well. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The threat timeframe now has the potential to be later this afternoon into this evening versus earlier in the day and will now hinge on a trigger to tap into the favorably unstable environment for sufficient wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development and this will be monitored closely today. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic..
..Additional severe weather threats exist for Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week but will be contingent on the position of the cold front and if dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere mitigate any severe weather potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. Exact start timeframe needs to be defined on potential activation. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible on Wednesday..

A severe weather event across North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts resulted in considerable damage. Hardest hit areas include Bernardston, Warwick MA, Ashburnham and parts of Gardner closest to Ashburnham as well as Bedford, Woburn, Malden, Burlington, Concord by a golf country club, Medford, and Winchester. Any additional pictures captured from the July 7th Severe Weather Outbreak can be sent as a reply to this email or to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter for the pictures provided. The information will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management, and the media. The Local Storm Report and current picture set are listed below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Monday July 7th, 2014:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407080132.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Facebook Page – Monday July 7th, 2014 – Severe Weather Outbreak Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.807961339237886.1073741838.216287391738620&type=1

Taking a look at today’s severe weather potential, the upper level impulse that was responsible for severe weather on Monday pushed offshore early this morning just before daybreak. Satellite imagery shows sufficient clearing for heating and destabilization. Wind shear profiles are a bit stronger than yesterday across the region. The key factor on severe weather potential for today will be a trigger to tap into the favorable instability and wind shear profiles over the area and the timing of such a triggering mechanism. At this time, the best severe weather potential according to the models would be in the late afternoon and evening hours, however, a few showers popped up as of 725 AM on Radar in Pennsylvania which may signal somewhat earlier development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. This will bear close monitoring throughout today. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed the entire region in a 5% severe weather probability range with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across New York and the Mid-Atlantic.

Additional severe weather is possible particularly on Wednesday and possibly Thursday of this week. This will be contingent on the position of the cold front and dry air in the mid-levels that mitigate any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely today. Exact start timeframe needs to be defined on potential activation. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible on Wednesday. This will be the last complete coordination message on Tuesday’s severe weather threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box