Severe Weather/Flash Flood Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday August 13th Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all..
..Heavy Rainfall with the potential of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms very late Tuesday Night and Wednesday across much of Southern New England. Urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding of these areas and possibly small streams is the main threat but there is a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and possibly even an isolated brief tornado as well in any severe thunderstorm. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pushed the ‘see text’ 5% severe weather probability category for Wednesday further north covering again covering Eastern and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut based on latest model trends..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM-4 PM Wednesday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide mid-morning Wednesday in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and then extending into portions of East Coastal Massachusetts during the Wednesday Afternoon High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 7-730 AM Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening..
An unusually strong summer storm system will affect much of Southern New England Wednesday. The main impact will be from heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding across portions of Southern New England with some potential for small stream flooding as well. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Rainfall amounts of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of up to 4-5″ possible in the region. Further Southeast outside of the Flash Flood Watch area, a more general 1-2″ of rainfall is likely.
There is a secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the potential for strong to damaging winds and possibly even a brief isolated tornado. Wind shear profiles and turning in the atmosphere will be quite favorable for this to occur, however, the heavy rainfall, expected cloud cover in the warm sector and the marine influence could mitigate this threat. Given that August features warmer sea surface temperatures and the fact that jet dynamics will be favorable, the key to any severe weather potential during Wednesday will be any instability or destabilization that can occur during the day either through any breaks in the cloudiness or from the very high moisture laden air that will be over the region and any embedded thunderstorms that can tap into the dynamics as well as the position of the warm front and the associated warm sector. Latest model runs have pushed the warm front in such a way where much of Eastern and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut have the 5% severe weather probabilities. Just a change of 50 miles in the position of the warm front will be a factor in any severe weather threat. We emphasize again that the main threat of this storm system is flash flooding but similar but perhaps not quite as favorable as 2 weeks ago, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong to damaging winds and perhaps a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pushed the ‘see text’ 5% severe weather probability category for Wednesday further north covering again covering Eastern and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut based on latest model trends.
A third threat is for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide mid-morning Wednesday in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and then extending into portions of East Coastal Massachusetts during the Wednesday Afternoon high tide. The ‘supermoon’ high tide cycle coupled with southeast onshore winds may allow for more vulnerable south coastal locations to experience minor coastal flooding. This could also exacerbate heavy rainfall flooding issues in areas that can also be affected by tidal influences. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM-4 PM Wednesday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide mid-morning Wednesday in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and then extending into portions of East Coastal Massachusetts during the Wednesday Afternoon High Tide.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 7-730 AM Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather/flash flood threat for Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Heavy Rainfall with the potential of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms very late Tuesday Night and Wednesday across much of Southern New England. Urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding of these areas and possibly small streams is the main threat but there is a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and possibly even an isolated brief tornado as well in any severe thunderstorm. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pushed the ‘see text’ 5% severe weather probability category for Wednesday further north covering again covering Eastern and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut based on latest model trends..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM-4 PM Wednesday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide mid-morning Wednesday in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and then extending into portions of East Coastal Massachusetts during the Wednesday Afternoon High Tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 7-730 AM Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening..
An unusually strong summer storm system will affect much of Southern New England Wednesday. The main impact will be from heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding across portions of Southern New England with some potential for small stream flooding as well. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from late Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Evening for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands. Rainfall amounts of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts of up to 4-5″ possible in the region. Further Southeast outside of the Flash Flood Watch area, a more general 1-2″ of rainfall is likely.
There is a secondary threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the potential for strong to damaging winds and possibly even a brief isolated tornado. Wind shear profiles and turning in the atmosphere will be quite favorable for this to occur, however, the heavy rainfall, expected cloud cover in the warm sector and the marine influence could mitigate this threat. Given that August features warmer sea surface temperatures and the fact that jet dynamics will be favorable, the key to any severe weather potential during Wednesday will be any instability or destabilization that can occur during the day either through any breaks in the cloudiness or from the very high moisture laden air that will be over the region and any embedded thunderstorms that can tap into the dynamics as well as the position of the warm front and the associated warm sector. Latest model runs have pushed the warm front in such a way where much of Eastern and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut have the 5% severe weather probabilities. Just a change of 50 miles in the position of the warm front will be a factor in any severe weather threat. We emphasize again that the main threat of this storm system is flash flooding but similar but perhaps not quite as favorable as 2 weeks ago, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong to damaging winds and perhaps a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pushed the ‘see text’ 5% severe weather probability category for Wednesday further north covering again covering Eastern and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut based on latest model trends.
A third threat is for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide mid-morning Wednesday in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and then extending into portions of East Coastal Massachusetts during the Wednesday Afternoon high tide. The ‘supermoon’ high tide cycle coupled with southeast onshore winds may allow for more vulnerable south coastal locations to experience minor coastal flooding. This could also exacerbate heavy rainfall flooding issues in areas that can also be affected by tidal influences. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 9 AM-4 PM Wednesday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide mid-morning Wednesday in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and then extending into portions of East Coastal Massachusetts during the Wednesday Afternoon High Tide.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 7-730 AM Wednesday Morning through Wednesday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather/flash flood threat for Wednesday. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box