Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Friday Night 1/23/15 through Saturday Evening 1/24/15 Coastal Winter Storm
Hello to all..
..Strong Coastal Storm to Affect Portions of Southern New England with the potential for heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and possibly minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Mid-Afternoon High Tide due to the system’s arrival to the region being faster than prior forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Friday Night through Saturday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations and the possibility for a trace of ice. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Areas south and east of the Winter Storm Watch area northwest of the Cape Cod Canal may require Winter Weather Advisories in future forecasts..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday for Western Hampden, Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties for 4-6″ of snow. Western Franklin County is currently expected to receive 1-3″ of snow below advisory criteria..
..The National Weather Service in Gray Maine Has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Hillsborough County NH from late tonight through Saturday Evening. A link to that statement from NWS Gray is provided in this coordination message..
..Strong Winds Across Cape Cod and the Islands and other eastern and southern coastal areas of Massachusetts will likely require Wind Advisories for portions of this area in future forecasts.
..The system has sped up which means that minor coastal flooding is also possible at the time of Saturday Mid-Afternoon high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This may require a Coastal Flood Advisory. The early Sunday Morning High tide is no longer expected to be affected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night..
A strong coastal storm will impact the region late tonight through Saturday Evening. Overnight, model runs have sped up the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the region. In addition, model runs are slightly closer to the coast but there is still above average uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall based on current model trends. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:
1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system as well as the potential for sleet and freezing rain near the transition line. Previous thinking indicated more of wet snow to rain precipitation transition versus having a zone of mixed precipitation between the wet snow and rain. Latest models indicate a sleet/freezing rain threat near the transition line is possible.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and the Islands appears likely and models may be underdoing the strength of the winds given the rapid storm intensification.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands is appearing more likely due to that tide cycle being high, a slightly closer track and the speed of the system. The extent of minor coastal flooding will depend on the track and speed of the system. The early Sunday Morning high tide will no longer be affected due to winds switching to an offshore wind by that high tide cycle.
Future model trends will depict additional watches, warnings and advisories for the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics as well as the NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Watch Statement:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Strong Coastal Storm to Affect Portions of Southern New England with the potential for heavy wet snow and strong to possibly damaging winds and possibly minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Mid-Afternoon High Tide due to the system’s arrival to the region being faster than prior forecasts..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late Friday Night through Saturday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Essex and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts in higher terrain locations and the possibility for a trace of ice. The snow will be a wet snow leading to the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Areas south and east of the Winter Storm Watch area northwest of the Cape Cod Canal may require Winter Weather Advisories in future forecasts..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 PM Saturday for Western Hampden, Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties for 4-6″ of snow. Western Franklin County is currently expected to receive 1-3″ of snow below advisory criteria..
..The National Weather Service in Gray Maine Has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Hillsborough County NH from late tonight through Saturday Evening. A link to that statement from NWS Gray is provided in this coordination message..
..Strong Winds Across Cape Cod and the Islands and other eastern and southern coastal areas of Massachusetts will likely require Wind Advisories for portions of this area in future forecasts.
..The system has sped up which means that minor coastal flooding is also possible at the time of Saturday Mid-Afternoon high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This may require a Coastal Flood Advisory. The early Sunday Morning High tide is no longer expected to be affected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night..
A strong coastal storm will impact the region late tonight through Saturday Evening. Overnight, model runs have sped up the onset of precipitation and storm impacts to the region. In addition, model runs are slightly closer to the coast but there is still above average uncertainty on snow amounts and where the rain/snow/mix transition line of precipitation will be. The headlines of the coordination message depict areas that will potentially receive around or more than 6″ of snow and areas that could receive advisory level snowfall based on current model trends. Given snowfall will be heavy and wet, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages will be possible. Key items for this winter storm include the following:
1.) Position of the rain/wet snow line as dictated by the track of the storm system as well as the potential for sleet and freezing rain near the transition line. Previous thinking indicated more of wet snow to rain precipitation transition versus having a zone of mixed precipitation between the wet snow and rain. Latest models indicate a sleet/freezing rain threat near the transition line is possible.
2.) The amount of cooling that can take place as the storm intensifies. This will dictate the changeover in locations that have snow changing to rain or precipitation start as rain and changeover to snow.
3.) The storm will intensify rapidly. Where this rapid intensification occurs and its track will determine the extent of the strong to possibly damaging winds near the coast. The lack of a high pressure system to the north could limit the strength of the winds but strong winds for at least Cape Cod and the Islands appears likely and models may be underdoing the strength of the winds given the rapid storm intensification.
4.) Minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday mid-afternoon high tide in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands is appearing more likely due to that tide cycle being high, a slightly closer track and the speed of the system. The extent of minor coastal flooding will depend on the track and speed of the system. The early Sunday Morning high tide will no longer be affected due to winds switching to an offshore wind by that high tide cycle.
Future model trends will depict additional watches, warnings and advisories for the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for much of Saturday into Saturday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics as well as the NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Watch Statement:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Gray Maine Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box