Blizzard Coordination Message #4 – Saturday Afternoon 2/14/15-Sunday Afternoon 2/15/15 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Another Blizzard/Major Winter Storm taking aim on the region, particularly for Eastern New England but Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall will occur in western pars of the region for late Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning. Clearing of roofs and preparations for this major winter storm/blizzard should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon/early evening..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Saturday Evening to 7 AM Monday Morning for Cape Cod, Nantucket, Essex, Suffolk, Southeastern Middlesex, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for 10-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible in localized areas, snow drifts of several feet and sustained winds 30-40 MPH and sustained wind potentially as high as 50 MPH on Cape Cod and the Islands with gusts up to 60-75 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts on the Cape and Islands. These winds will likely cause scattered to possibly numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and could exacerbate roof structural issues in addition to snow load..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Saturday Evening to 4 AM Monday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Bristol, North-Central and Southern Plymouth, Central Middlesex, Dukes Counties of Massachusetts and Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI for 6-12″ of snow, higher amounts possible in localized areas, snow drifts of a few feet and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds will likely cause scattered to possibly numerous pockets of tree and wire damage, power outages and could exacerbate roof structural issues in addition to snow load..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 3 PM Saturday Afternoon through 7 PM Sunday Evening for Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 6-12″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 50-55 MPH likely causing a period of near blizzard conditions and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 3 PM Saturday Afternoon through 4 PM Sunday Afternoon for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut for 4-8″ of snow and some blowing and drifting of snow with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..The NWS Gray Maine office has issued Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings for their area. A link to their statement is posted..
..A Coastal Food Warning remains in effect for minor to pockets of Moderate Coastal Flooding for the Sunday Morning high tide from 6 AM-11 AM for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Sunday Morning high tide from 6-11 AM for Nantucket, Suffolk and Eastern Norfolk Counties for minor coastal flooding. Areas hit by the past winter storms with coastal flooding are potentially vulnerable for this event..
..In the wake of the blizzard, bitter cold conditions, the coldest in several years will affect much of Southern New England. Wind Chill Warnings are in effect for all of Southern New England except for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands from 4 PM Sunday Afternoon to 8-11 AM Monday Morning for wind chill indices of 27 to 38 below zero across the warning area with the coldest readings in northwest parts of the Wind Chill Warning area. Wind Chill Advisories may be needed for Southeast New England in future updates..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 PM Saturday Evening lasting through mid Sunday Afternoon with overnight operations likely. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors..
..Pictures of the snow, coastal flooding and damage from wind and snow load can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, as a reply to this email or via our Facebook and Twitter feeds..
Another blizzard/major winter storm is in the offing for portions of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area, specifically Eastern New England but Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall across the entire NWS Taunton coverage area. The headlines of the coordination message depict the latest thinking based on the latest weather models. A number of factors for consideration in the forecast:
1.) As typically is the case with these intense major winter storms/blizzards, there will be a sharp western cutoff on the snowfall. This has wobbled to the west in the last model runs which has increased snow and wind issues for Eastern New England and has caused the issuance of Winter Storm Warnings for western Massachusetts and the remainder of North-Central Connecticut.
2.) The wind threat is significant especially for Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts but now extends through much of Central and Eastern New England. Parts of this coast line could see wind gusts near or over hurricane force. Given snow loading and the potential for these damaging winds, an enhanced tree/power outage structural damage threat may be noted in a part of this area. Strong wind gusts to 50-65 MPH will reach farther back into Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Even in Western New England, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage are possible with wind gusts to 50 MPH.
3.) Snowfall total forecasts may continue to be revised based on model trends and as is typically the case, there will be mesoscale or short-term forecast situations with regards to snow banding and where these bands setup whether it be Eastern New England or just offshore. Amounts have been increased slightly since the last update but that said, even if snowfall amounts are closer to 6″ versus 8-14″ with isolated higher amounts, given the strong winds, blowing and drifting snow and falling snow, blizzard conditions are considered likely over much of Eastern New England prompting the issuance and expansion of Blizzard Warnings for much of Eastern Massachusetts with considerable blowing and drifting in the Winter Storm Warning area. Recall the late March 2014 storm that affected portions of the mid-outer Cape, this storm had wind gusts to hurricane force with snow totals in the 5-10″ range which may be thought as ‘lower’ snow totals for a blizzard but can still cause significant issues with visibility and potential pockets of damage.
It is noted that snow measuring with these conditions and with all the snow currently on the ground can be very difficult. Here are some tips to help with snow measuring with the current conditions based on feedback from NWS Taunton forecasters:
1.) Put a plywood board or other hard surface on top of existing snow pack and do your measurement in that manner and perhaps do that at a few locations. If no plywood board or hard surface is available, measure on the existing snow pack and try and feel when the ruler hits the frozen pack of prior snow.
2.) Given the blowing and drifting, take many measurements and average (10-15 or even 20). This will help average the snowfall.
3.) The National Weather Service understands that it is very difficult to measure snow given prior storms and the conditions upcoming for the blizzard. All of the reports are appreciated and its understood that all volunteers are making a best effort.
It is noted that Wind Chill Warnings are in effect as the blizzard pulls away for much of Southern New England away from the Southeast New England coast. Wind Chill Headlines may be needed for the Southeast New England coast in future outlooks. Extreme cold will follow in the wake of the blizzard. The extreme cold could exacerbate any power outages that occur in the region.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 PM Saturday Evening lasting through mid Sunday Afternoon with overnight operations likely. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors. Pictures of the snow, coastal flooding and damage from wind and snow load can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, as a reply to this email or via our Facebook and Twitter feeds. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Winter Weather Graphics Page and NWS Gray Maine Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
NWS Taunton MA Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Wind Chill Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Winter Weather Graphics Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Gray ME Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Another Blizzard/Major Winter Storm taking aim on the region, particularly for Eastern New England but Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall will occur in western pars of the region for late Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning. Clearing of roofs and preparations for this major winter storm/blizzard should be completed by late Saturday Afternoon/early evening..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Saturday Evening to 7 AM Monday Morning for Cape Cod, Nantucket, Essex, Suffolk, Southeastern Middlesex, Eastern Norfolk, and Eastern Plymouth Counties for 10-14″ of snow, higher amounts possible in localized areas, snow drifts of several feet and sustained winds 30-40 MPH and sustained wind potentially as high as 50 MPH on Cape Cod and the Islands with gusts up to 60-75 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts on the Cape and Islands. These winds will likely cause scattered to possibly numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and could exacerbate roof structural issues in addition to snow load..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 PM Saturday Evening to 4 AM Monday Morning for Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk, Bristol, North-Central and Southern Plymouth, Central Middlesex, Dukes Counties of Massachusetts and Washington, Newport Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island RI for 6-12″ of snow, higher amounts possible in localized areas, snow drifts of a few feet and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds will likely cause scattered to possibly numerous pockets of tree and wire damage, power outages and could exacerbate roof structural issues in addition to snow load..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 3 PM Saturday Afternoon through 7 PM Sunday Evening for Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Windham Counties of Connecticut for 6-12″ of snow, isolated higher amounts possible and sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts of 50-55 MPH likely causing a period of near blizzard conditions and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 3 PM Saturday Afternoon through 4 PM Sunday Afternoon for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut for 4-8″ of snow and some blowing and drifting of snow with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..The NWS Gray Maine office has issued Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings for their area. A link to their statement is posted..
..A Coastal Food Warning remains in effect for minor to pockets of Moderate Coastal Flooding for the Sunday Morning high tide from 6 AM-11 AM for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Sunday Morning high tide from 6-11 AM for Nantucket, Suffolk and Eastern Norfolk Counties for minor coastal flooding. Areas hit by the past winter storms with coastal flooding are potentially vulnerable for this event..
..In the wake of the blizzard, bitter cold conditions, the coldest in several years will affect much of Southern New England. Wind Chill Warnings are in effect for all of Southern New England except for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands from 4 PM Sunday Afternoon to 8-11 AM Monday Morning for wind chill indices of 27 to 38 below zero across the warning area with the coldest readings in northwest parts of the Wind Chill Warning area. Wind Chill Advisories may be needed for Southeast New England in future updates..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 PM Saturday Evening lasting through mid Sunday Afternoon with overnight operations likely. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors..
..Pictures of the snow, coastal flooding and damage from wind and snow load can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, as a reply to this email or via our Facebook and Twitter feeds..
Another blizzard/major winter storm is in the offing for portions of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area, specifically Eastern New England but Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall across the entire NWS Taunton coverage area. The headlines of the coordination message depict the latest thinking based on the latest weather models. A number of factors for consideration in the forecast:
1.) As typically is the case with these intense major winter storms/blizzards, there will be a sharp western cutoff on the snowfall. This has wobbled to the west in the last model runs which has increased snow and wind issues for Eastern New England and has caused the issuance of Winter Storm Warnings for western Massachusetts and the remainder of North-Central Connecticut.
2.) The wind threat is significant especially for Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts but now extends through much of Central and Eastern New England. Parts of this coast line could see wind gusts near or over hurricane force. Given snow loading and the potential for these damaging winds, an enhanced tree/power outage structural damage threat may be noted in a part of this area. Strong wind gusts to 50-65 MPH will reach farther back into Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Even in Western New England, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage are possible with wind gusts to 50 MPH.
3.) Snowfall total forecasts may continue to be revised based on model trends and as is typically the case, there will be mesoscale or short-term forecast situations with regards to snow banding and where these bands setup whether it be Eastern New England or just offshore. Amounts have been increased slightly since the last update but that said, even if snowfall amounts are closer to 6″ versus 8-14″ with isolated higher amounts, given the strong winds, blowing and drifting snow and falling snow, blizzard conditions are considered likely over much of Eastern New England prompting the issuance and expansion of Blizzard Warnings for much of Eastern Massachusetts with considerable blowing and drifting in the Winter Storm Warning area. Recall the late March 2014 storm that affected portions of the mid-outer Cape, this storm had wind gusts to hurricane force with snow totals in the 5-10″ range which may be thought as ‘lower’ snow totals for a blizzard but can still cause significant issues with visibility and potential pockets of damage.
It is noted that snow measuring with these conditions and with all the snow currently on the ground can be very difficult. Here are some tips to help with snow measuring with the current conditions based on feedback from NWS Taunton forecasters:
1.) Put a plywood board or other hard surface on top of existing snow pack and do your measurement in that manner and perhaps do that at a few locations. If no plywood board or hard surface is available, measure on the existing snow pack and try and feel when the ruler hits the frozen pack of prior snow.
2.) Given the blowing and drifting, take many measurements and average (10-15 or even 20). This will help average the snowfall.
3.) The National Weather Service understands that it is very difficult to measure snow given prior storms and the conditions upcoming for the blizzard. All of the reports are appreciated and its understood that all volunteers are making a best effort.
It is noted that Wind Chill Warnings are in effect as the blizzard pulls away for much of Southern New England away from the Southeast New England coast. Wind Chill Headlines may be needed for the Southeast New England coast in future outlooks. Extreme cold will follow in the wake of the blizzard. The extreme cold could exacerbate any power outages that occur in the region.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 6 PM Saturday Evening lasting through mid Sunday Afternoon with overnight operations likely. ARES/RACES and other EMCOMM Groups specifically in Eastern New England should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard potential and ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups in Western New England should monitor for any mutual aid team assistance to Eastern New England. Given snow already on the ground, roof loading etc., the impacts from this potential blizzard/major winter storm may be higher in the region given these factors. Pictures of the snow, coastal flooding and damage from wind and snow load can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, as a reply to this email or via our Facebook and Twitter feeds. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Winter Weather Graphics Page and NWS Gray Maine Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
NWS Taunton MA Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Wind Chill Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton MA Winter Weather Graphics Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Gray ME Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/me/latest.wwus41.KGYX.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box