Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Evening 1/15/16-Saturday 1/16/16 Storm Potential
Hello to all..
..Quick Hitting Coastal Storm System will affect Southern New England with the potential for a wintry mix in northwestern interior areas, heavy rainfall at the coast and the potential for wind gusts to 40 MPH across Southeast Coastal New England. Overall forecast confidence in the storm scenario is lower than normal for this short time range..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of wet snow snow and a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice with the highest snow and ice amounts in the highest elevations. Given the lower confidence forecast its possible that higher snowfall amounts potentially as much as 6″ could occur and it would be a heavy wet snow and if that occurs, it could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Much will depend on how fast any rain/freezing rain changeover to wet snow in the advisory area occurs..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for a trace to one-tenth inch of ice and possibly a coating to inch of snow. Given the lower confidence forecast, its possible that higher snow and ice amounts could occur and will be monitored..
..The rest of Southern New England is likely to see 1-2″ of rainfall from this storm system and this might cause isolated pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding. Portions of Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands could see wind gusts to 40 MPH, Given the lower confidence forecast, there could be stronger winds but the lack of a cold high pressure to the north of the coastal storm is expected to limit strong wind potential..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage..
A quick hitting coastal storm system will affect Southern New England late tonight through early afternoon Saturday. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current thinking on this storm system. Confidence on snow and ice amounts is lower than normal for this time range given marginal temperatures but a coastal storm track that would normally produce more snow for Southern New England. This will bear close monitoring as if enough wet snow and/or ice accumulates in the Winter Weather Advisory area, particularly northern and western areas, there would be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. The other question will be the strength of the winds at the coast. These winds should be sub-advisory given the lack of a pressure gradient given no high pressure to the north of the coastal storm but it will bear watching. Rainfall totals are higher confidence for this forecast.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage. This will likely be the only coordination message for this storm system given the timing in the late tonight through early Saturday Afternoon timeframe unless time allows and a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or Ops at NWS are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snow/ice amount and probability graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snow/Ice Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Quick Hitting Coastal Storm System will affect Southern New England with the potential for a wintry mix in northwestern interior areas, heavy rainfall at the coast and the potential for wind gusts to 40 MPH across Southeast Coastal New England. Overall forecast confidence in the storm scenario is lower than normal for this short time range..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampden and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of wet snow snow and a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice with the highest snow and ice amounts in the highest elevations. Given the lower confidence forecast its possible that higher snowfall amounts potentially as much as 6″ could occur and it would be a heavy wet snow and if that occurs, it could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Much will depend on how fast any rain/freezing rain changeover to wet snow in the advisory area occurs..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Evening through Noon Saturday for Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for a trace to one-tenth inch of ice and possibly a coating to inch of snow. Given the lower confidence forecast, its possible that higher snow and ice amounts could occur and will be monitored..
..The rest of Southern New England is likely to see 1-2″ of rainfall from this storm system and this might cause isolated pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding. Portions of Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands could see wind gusts to 40 MPH, Given the lower confidence forecast, there could be stronger winds but the lack of a cold high pressure to the north of the coastal storm is expected to limit strong wind potential..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage..
A quick hitting coastal storm system will affect Southern New England late tonight through early afternoon Saturday. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current thinking on this storm system. Confidence on snow and ice amounts is lower than normal for this time range given marginal temperatures but a coastal storm track that would normally produce more snow for Southern New England. This will bear close monitoring as if enough wet snow and/or ice accumulates in the Winter Weather Advisory area, particularly northern and western areas, there would be the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. The other question will be the strength of the winds at the coast. These winds should be sub-advisory given the lack of a pressure gradient given no high pressure to the north of the coastal storm but it will bear watching. Rainfall totals are higher confidence for this forecast.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for precipitation type changeover, snow, ice, rain totals and strong wind gusts and any wind damage. This will likely be the only coordination message for this storm system given the timing in the late tonight through early Saturday Afternoon timeframe unless time allows and a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or Ops at NWS are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook and snow/ice amount and probability graphics.
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Snow/Ice Amount and Probability Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box