Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/23/16 Severe Weather Potential & Post Severe Weather Message for Friday 7/22/16 Severe Weather Event

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Hello to all..

..After Friday’s severe weather event, another round of at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely for portions of Southern New England this afternoon into early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England through East Coastal Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Saturday for today’s severe weather potential..

Friday’s severe weather event brought scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England with the hardest hit areas including the Westboro/Southboro, Mass area, West Warwick, RI and the Dayville/Killingly CT area. Any additional photos or late reports can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds, or to my rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. The pictures will be sent to NWS, media, and emergency management. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall, WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio log and a link to the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231238.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231228.nous41.html

WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_22_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1246470188720330

Turning our attention to Saturday’s severe weather potential, we appear again to have the right mix of instability, wind shear and in this case a stronger triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the SPC marginal severe weather risk area. In addition, there will be a level of cooling aloft which may allow for a greater potential for hail and large hail in the strongest thunderstorms. The headlines depict the timing and nature of the severe weather potential. Key factors that could limit the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is the level of drying in the atmosphere as the day wears on and whether the strong wind shear values are maintained as the impulse in the atmosphere that will trigger convection moves into the region. At this time, there is expected to be sufficient overlap in instability, wind shear, and moisture for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England away from the south coastal areas and there is the possibility for there to be numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region if mitigating factors on moisture are overcome and maintaining the strong winds as the impulse approaches occurs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT for today’s severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message posted on Saturday’s severe weather potential.

Also, it is noted that the NWS Taunton radar is having an issue where thunderstorms are looking stronger than they would normally. This is due to a problem with the radar. Radar maintenance was completed Saturday but a part is required to address the issue. The radar will remain available for use but note that storms could look approximately 10 DBz stronger than reality. If the radar ends up being down, it is likely because of this issue with the radar but for now it will remain available for use and any users of the NWS Taunton radar should note that it will be running “hotter” or stronger on thunderstorm reflectivity than normal. This furthers the importance of spotter reports based on the reporting criteria to understand what is actually happening at the surface. See the NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message link below for information:

NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201607231456-KBOX-NOUS61-FTMBOX

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook – Saturday July 23rd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..After Friday’s severe weather event, another round of at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely for portions of Southern New England this afternoon into early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England through East Coastal Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Saturday for today’s severe weather potential..

Friday’s severe weather event brought scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England with the hardest hit areas including the Westboro/Southboro, Mass area, West Warwick, RI and the Dayville/Killingly CT area. Any additional photos or late reports can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds, or to my rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. The pictures will be sent to NWS, media, and emergency management. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall, WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio log and a link to the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231238.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231228.nous41.html

WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_22_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1246470188720330

Turning our attention to Saturday’s severe weather potential, we appear again to have the right mix of instability, wind shear and in this case a stronger triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the SPC marginal severe weather risk area. In addition, there will be a level of cooling aloft which may allow for a greater potential for hail and large hail in the strongest thunderstorms. The headlines depict the timing and nature of the severe weather potential. Key factors that could limit the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is the level of drying in the atmosphere as the day wears on and whether the strong wind shear values are maintained as the impulse in the atmosphere that will trigger convection moves into the region. At this time, there is expected to be sufficient overlap in instability, wind shear, and moisture for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England away from the south coastal areas and there is the possibility for there to be numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region if mitigating factors on moisture are overcome and maintaining the strong winds as the impulse approaches occurs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT for today’s severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message posted on Saturday’s severe weather potential.

Also, it is noted that the NWS Taunton radar is having an issue where thunderstorms are looking stronger than they would normally. This is due to a problem with the radar. Radar maintenance was completed Saturday but a part is required to address the issue. The radar will remain available for use but note that storms could look approximately 10 DBz stronger than reality. If the radar ends up being down, it is likely because of this issue with the radar but for now it will remain available for use and any users of the NWS Taunton radar should note that it will be running “hotter” or stronger on thunderstorm reflectivity than normal. This furthers the importance of spotter reports based on the reporting criteria to understand what is actually happening at the surface. See the NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message link below for information:

NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201607231456-KBOX-NOUS61-FTMBOX

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook – Saturday July 23rd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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