Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 9/4/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts
Hello to all…
..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has reemerged off the coast of North Carolina and will be lingering to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave in the late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong to damaging winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning..
Since the last coordination message Friday Morning, confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions across Southeast Coastal New England. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. While confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions in southeast coastal New England, there is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. If the track remains further south, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.
At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Saturday Evening or Noon Sunday depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:
NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has reemerged off the coast of North Carolina and will be lingering to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave in the late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong to damaging winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning..
Since the last coordination message Friday Morning, confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions across Southeast Coastal New England. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. While confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions in southeast coastal New England, there is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. If the track remains further south, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.
At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Saturday Evening or Noon Sunday depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:
NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box