Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 9/4/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts
Hello to all…
..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to move east-northeast this Sunday Morning and will eventually slow and move more northward and northwestward later today and tonight and intensify tonight into Monday. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave are expected to be a bit later starting early Sunday Evening over the islands and late tonight along Southeast Coastal New England lasting through the early to mid afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into later Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue and continue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon..
Since the last coordination message Saturday Afternoon, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were yesterday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the early Sunday Evening into Monday afternoon with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a very wide spread among them with the Euro closest to Southern New England and other models trying to send the system near or even to the coast of Southern New Jersey and/or Delaware. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further east with the euro both north and east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.
Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.
At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted between 3 PM and 8 PM pending updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:
NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical
NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to move east-northeast this Sunday Morning and will eventually slow and move more northward and northwestward later today and tonight and intensify tonight into Monday. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave are expected to be a bit later starting early Sunday Evening over the islands and late tonight along Southeast Coastal New England lasting through the early to mid afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into later Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue and continue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon..
Since the last coordination message Saturday Afternoon, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were yesterday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the early Sunday Evening into Monday afternoon with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a very wide spread among them with the Euro closest to Southern New England and other models trying to send the system near or even to the coast of Southern New Jersey and/or Delaware. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further east with the euro both north and east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.
Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.
At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted between 3 PM and 8 PM pending updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:
NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical
NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box