Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #4 – Late Sunday Night 9/4/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts

September 4, 2016 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has slowed its east-northeast progression Sunday and is likely to start making its eventually turn and slow movement northward and northwestward later today and tonight with the possibility for slight intensification tonight into Monday followed by slow weakening later Monday evening through mid-week. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from now to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave late tonight after midnight through the mid to late afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected tonight through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to upgrade to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area between Monday and Tuesday. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern tonight through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late tonight through Monday Afternoon to monitor wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday..

Since the last coordination message Sunday Morning, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands (Watch Hill Rhode Island through Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including the islands) for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the late tonight into Monday afternoon timeframe with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm warning area between Monday and Tuesday. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a wide spread among them with two models closest to Southern New England. Other models are now bringing the system near or to the south of one of the closer model tracks to the south of Nantucket with none of the models indicating a direct hit to the mid-atlantic region. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further north and hasn’t moved much further east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late tonight through Monday Afternoon to monitor wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday. Depending on storm evolution, another coordination message may be posted either by 830 AM Monday Morning or by 1000 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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