Hello to all…
..Powerful Coastal Storm will Affect the Region Sunday Through Monday bringing heavy snowfall, potential for blizzard conditions in portions of Southern New England, Strong to Damaging Winds in much of Southern New England and minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Sunday Afternoon and widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding for the Monday midday high tide. This will be a long duration storm system to affect the region..
..Prior to coastal storm, freezing drizzle could make for icy road conditions across sections of Southern New England and travelers should use caution driving around the region this Saturday Evening and overnight..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Night into Monday Evening and A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday for Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties. This is for total snowfall of 12-18″ for Essex County Massachusetts and 6-12 inches of snow for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts. The potential for whiteout conditions,blowing and drifting of snow, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible, and blizzard conditions occurring later Sunday Night into Monday. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region. The Blizzard Watch serves as a replacement to the high wind watch for this area..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for Barnstable County and Nantucket for 4-6″ of snow and the potential for whiteout conditions, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible and blizzard conditions. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered pockets to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region. The Blizzard Watch serves as a replacement to the high wind watch for this area. It is noted precipitation in this area will likely start as a wintry mix or rain before changing over to snow and becoming heavy which is why snow amounts in this area will be lighter. The timing of the transition and track of the storm could significantly change snow amounts in this area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Hampshire and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-16″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40 MPH. The combination of the strong winds and the snow at least starting out on the heavy and wet side could lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday for Hampden, Southern Worcester, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH strongest at the coast. The precipitation in this area could start as a period of rain or wintry mix before changing over to snow and become heavy at times. The snow could be on the wet and heavy side especially at the start and this could lead to scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40-50 MPH strongest at the coast. Precipitation may be a wintry mix or rain at the start changing over to snow and could be a wet snow for a time. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday for Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Martha’s Vineyard for 2-4″ of snow and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 2 PM Sunday for Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Sunday high tide for vulnerable shore roads in the area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from late Monday Morning to Monday Mid-Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Nantucket Island for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads across the area and the potential for widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding in the area from Sandwich to Eastham on Cape Cod on the North/Northwest facing areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system..
..Pictures and video of storm related damage from strong winds, wet snow and coastal flooding and whiteout/blizzard conditions can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feed or via the pics@nsradio.org email address with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for providing the material unless otherwise indicated..
Prior to the coastal storm, some light icing conditions could cause some icy road conditions across much of Southern New England especially central and eastern areas. A Special Weather Statement for this situation has been posted and its listed below:
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Icy Conditions Overnight:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
Models are gradually coalescing on a solution that provides a significant impact to Southern New England to include heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard conditions in a portion of Eastern Massachusetts in the most eastern areas, strong to damaging winds, strongest in Eastern New England and the threat of coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket particularly for the Monday midday high tide cycle. There is still some spread in the model guidance that could change outcomes. The headlines of this message represent current thinking. Key factors for this upcoming major winter storm/blizzard potential and adjustments to watches, warnings and advisories include:
1.) The track of the system and how close intensification is to the Southern New England coast line. Again, the European model guidance remains the closest with the intensification process happening close to our coast line and one of the American models sliding into agreement while one of the other reliable American models remains a bit more offshore. A small, 50 mile difference in track could change outcomes especially in western and central parts of the region and in inland and south coastal areas of Eastern New England in terms of heavier snowfall and blizzard conditions.
2.) The timing of the changeover in precipitation type can also affect snowfall amounts across the southern half of the region particularly along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike.
3.) The consistency of the snow and how long it remains wet snow will also factor into snow amounts but also factor into the amount of tree and power line damage and power outage potential and how large of an area it could cover in the region coupled with the strong to damaging winds.
Future model runs should bring clarity to these key factors and that will adjust the watches, warnings and advisories accordingly.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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