Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday 6/19/17 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening and possible across Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated brief tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday with the enhanced risk area expanded slightly eastward further into Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and a slight risk for severe weather into Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut. The remaining NWS Taunton coverage area has a marginal severe weather risk. The timeframe for severe weather and flash flood potential is 2-11 PM EDT Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Western and Central Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Northern Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
..Please note that the scheduled Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th lasting through Friday June 23rd given the severe weather potential for Monday June 19th..
A reminder that the NWS Taunton Major Doppler Radar Upgrade previously announced to start on Monday 6/19/17 will be delayed to Tuesday 6/20/17 due to the severe weather and flash flooding potential in western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area for Monday 6/19/17. This means the upgrade will cover approximately four days from Tuesday 6/20/17 through Friday 6/23/17. The details can be seen at the following link to the Public Information Statement:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706181431-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX
Enough severe weather parameters are lining up for a round of isolated to scattered to possibly even scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms across Western Massachusetts and Northern-Central Connecticut. SPC has continued the enhanced risk for severe weather with a slight eastward expansion in the latest update across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. The severe weather potential exists through Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut where a slight risk of severe weather is in place but less than areas to the west with the strong to severe thunderstorm potential waning as you get further east due to time of day and more of a marine influence particularly in Southeast New England. While there are some severe weather parameters that are unfavorable, there appears to be the right combination of parameters including high dewpoints, sufficient heating for destabilization. sufficiently strong wind shear profiles and timing and forcing of the cold front that warrants the current enhanced and slight risk areas. The headlines of the coordination message continue to capture things well. The key factors as mentioned in prior messages will determine the coverage of the severe weather and flash flood potential and include:
1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into Amateur Radio Operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening and possible across Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated brief tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday with the enhanced risk area expanded slightly eastward further into Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and a slight risk for severe weather into Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut. The remaining NWS Taunton coverage area has a marginal severe weather risk. The timeframe for severe weather and flash flood potential is 2-11 PM EDT Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Western and Central Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Northern Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
..Please note that the scheduled Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th lasting through Friday June 23rd given the severe weather potential for Monday June 19th..
A reminder that the NWS Taunton Major Doppler Radar Upgrade previously announced to start on Monday 6/19/17 will be delayed to Tuesday 6/20/17 due to the severe weather and flash flooding potential in western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area for Monday 6/19/17. This means the upgrade will cover approximately four days from Tuesday 6/20/17 through Friday 6/23/17. The details can be seen at the following link to the Public Information Statement:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706181431-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX
Enough severe weather parameters are lining up for a round of isolated to scattered to possibly even scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms across Western Massachusetts and Northern-Central Connecticut. SPC has continued the enhanced risk for severe weather with a slight eastward expansion in the latest update across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. The severe weather potential exists through Central Massachusetts and Northeast Connecticut where a slight risk of severe weather is in place but less than areas to the west with the strong to severe thunderstorm potential waning as you get further east due to time of day and more of a marine influence particularly in Southeast New England. While there are some severe weather parameters that are unfavorable, there appears to be the right combination of parameters including high dewpoints, sufficient heating for destabilization. sufficiently strong wind shear profiles and timing and forcing of the cold front that warrants the current enhanced and slight risk areas. The headlines of the coordination message continue to capture things well. The key factors as mentioned in prior messages will determine the coverage of the severe weather and flash flood potential and include:
1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into Amateur Radio Operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box