Hurricane Jose Coordination Message #3 – Late Tuesday Night 9/19/17-Wednesday Night 9/20/17 Possible Jose Impacts

September 16, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Jose is expected to continue to at least gradually intensify or become a larger system and he is now moving more northward at this time. This northward motion is expected to continue over the next three days parallel to the US East Coast followed by a northeast and possibly eastward motion in 3-5 days. As the wind field expands, the possibility of direct impacts remain in Southern New England in the late Tuesday to Wednesday Night timeframe. Latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory mentions interests from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose with Tropical Storm Watches potentially posted for parts of this area in the next day or two..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from 700 AM to 800 PM Sunday for Southern Rhode Island including Block Island, Southern Bristol County, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Islands for southerly swell, high surf and rip currents at area beaches from Hurricane Jose. This advisory will likely be extended over the next few days in both time and areal coverage as Jose approaches Southern New England..
..The extent on specifics of other direct impacts besides swells and rip currents along the New England Coast remain uncertain but heavy rain, strong winds, Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion along the South Coast of New England are possible and the most likely scenario at this time understanding uncertainty remains is the potential for tropical storm force conditions for Southeast New England especially for Cape Cod and the Islands..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net management are monitoring the progress of Jose. Since Jose is not near land, they are not active at this time. As an aside, these hurricane nets may need to activate for Maria and her impact on the Caribbean islands Monday Evening through Wednesday..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Jose. This message’s intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks continue the monitoring process. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible some time late Tuesday into Wednesday Night presuming direct impacts of some kind into Southern New England occur and the most likely scenario at this time is tropical storm force conditions in Southeast New England particularly Cape Cod and the Islands though there remains uncertainty with track and the wind field into this region..

Hurricane Jose is currently a 80 MPH category-1 hurricane and is now on the move to the north. Jose’s wind field is expanding and his wind field is expected to continue to expand over the next few days. Jose is expected to continue to track towards the north with some increase in forward speed and should at least gradually intensify or become an even larger storm system over the next few days. Model guidance today has shifted and congealed around a track around the 40 North/70 West benchmark. Some models are a little north and west of the benchmark while other models are a little south and east of the benchmark. The NHC advisory mentions interests from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose and that tropical storm watches could potentially be posted for parts of this area in the next day or two. A High Surf Advisory is now in effect for portions of South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts and this is likely to continue to be posted over the next few days as swell and rip currents from Jose begin and continue to effect the coastline. The model guidance consensus has improved since yesterday implying a potential for tropical storm conditions in the form of heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding in Southeast New England especially for Cape Cod and the Islands pending the track, size and structure of Jose. The track error ‘cone of uncertainty’ continues to cover portions of Southern New England with the latest forecast package with Cape Cod and the Islands and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts at most risk for direct impacts currently with tropical storm force conditions. The track guidance could still shift further to the east or closer to the coast in the next several updates as we are still 4 days away so there remains a level of uncertainty with conditions in the region. A few other key items for consideration as we continue to monitor Jose’s progress:

1.) Jose will strengthen a bit over the weekend and then gradually weaken as it moves up to New England. Models are varying the speed of Jose on his closest approach to the region. This will effect ultimate direct impacts on weather in Southern New England in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe presuming a close enough track to affect portions of Southern New England.

2.) The size of Jose will expand as he moves up the coast and he may start a transition into a post-tropical system which may allow wind fields to expand further including on the west side of the system. It is noted from the 500 PM EDT Saturday 9/16/17 advisory that the wind field is expanding.

3.) The gradient between high pressure in Canada and Hurricane Jose may be a contributing factor to the strong winds over Southeast New England and could allow for some strong winds in other parts of the area north of Southeast New England depending on the track, strength and structure of Hurricane Jose.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track, intensity and structure of Hurricane Jose. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for tropical storm/hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week at a link to that is below:

Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurr_prepare_week_2017.txt

Once again, Hurricane Jose should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory and key messages information on Hurricane Jose are listed below:

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Key Messages Slide:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/AL122017_key_messages.png

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time Sunday pending further computer model data on the track of Jose and significant updates to Jose’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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