Hurricane Jose Coordination Message #6 – Tuesday Evening 9/19/17-Wednesday Night 9/20/17 Likely Jose Impacts

September 19, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Confidence continues in tropical storm impacts to portions of Southern New England similar to that of a nor’easter or strong nor’easter type of storm..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Hull Massachusetts to Westerly Rhode Island and includes all of Cape Cod and the Islands including Block Island, Southern Bristol, Southern and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-40 MPH with wind gusts in the 45-60 MPH range with isolated higher wind gusts possible and 2-5″ of rain likely. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages as well as urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall along with minor to moderate coastal flooding and the potential for significant beach erosion..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Barnstable and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts..
..Interests elsewhere in Southern New England just to the north and west of the current Tropical Storm Warning area should closely monitor the progress of Jose as he may bring wind gusts in the 30-40 MPH range and some rainfall which may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage across as well as minor coastal flooding issues in coastal areas north of the Tropical Storm Warning. Wind and Coastal flood headlines are possible for these areas in future updates..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts through 2 AM Thursday for southerly swell, high surf and rip currents at area beaches from Hurricane Jose. The High Surf Advisory is no longer in effect for Southeast New England as this is covered under the Tropical Storm Warning..
..Hurricane Jose is holding steady currently but will gradually weaken in 1-2 days but has a large storm envelope and it will continue to become a larger system with an expanding rain and wind field and will continue to travel northward for the next couple of days and then turn toward the northeast and east around or just south of the 40 North/70 West benchmark later Tuesday Night and Wednesday. This slight shift south may reduce impacts in north and west parts of the Tropical Storm Warning area to frequent tropical storm force wind gusts versus sustained tropical storm force winds and reduce concerns north and west of the Tropical Storm Warning regarding winds but a slight shift closer to the benchmark would bring the winds further north and west. No major changes to impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands..
..VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net management are monitoring the progress of both Jose and Maria. These hurricane nets activated for Maria last night for her impact on the Caribbean islands and will activate later Tuesday Night through Wednesday for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and will continue to monitor the progress of Jose. Check out the Hurricane Watch Net web site at http://www.hwn.org and the VoIP Hurricane Net web site at http://www.voipwx.net for more information..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any increase of winds and the coastal flood potential for Tuesday Evening. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting around 6 AM Wednesday Morning into Wednesday Night with direct impacts in the tropical storm warning area similar to a nor’easter or strong nor’easter type system likely..

Hurricane Jose is currently a 75 MPH category-1 hurricane and is moving northward after briefly stalling Tuesday Evening. Jose will gradually weaken and go below hurricane strength in the next day or two but Jose’s wind field is expanding and his wind field can continue to expand over the next few days. Jose will continue to track towards the north over the next day or so and then shift to the north-northeast and east and southeast in the 2-5 day period. Model guidance today has continued to hover around or slightly south of the 40 North/70 West benchmark with a few models north and west of the benchmark. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Southeast New England from Hull Massachusetts to Watch Hill Rhode Island along with high surf advisories for the North Shore of Massachusetts and a Flash Flood Watch for Cape Cod and Nantucket as indicated in the headlines and the current expected conditions are that of a nor’easter or strong nor’easter as indicated in the headlines of this message. Interests elsewhere in Southern New England should monitor the progress of Jose as areas just to the northwest of the Tropical Storm Warning could see minor coastal flooding at the coast and wind gusts near or at Wind Advisory criteria with some rain which could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage. This risk to areas north and west is a bit less with a track slightly to the south and east but if some of the models that are around or slightly north and west of the 40 North/70 West benchmark verify, the risk of winds to advisory level would increase again. Factors that are still in play with Jose include the following:

1.) The size of Jose has expanded and will continue to expand as he moves up the coast and he may start a transition into a post-tropical system which may allow wind fields to expand further including on the west side of the system.
2.) The gradient between high pressure in Canada and Hurricane Jose may be a contributing factor to the strong winds over Southeast New England and could allow for some strong winds in other parts of the area north of Eastern New England depending on the track, strength and structure of Jose along with minor coastal flooding along the north shore of Massachusetts.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track, intensity and structure of Hurricane Jose. People should be reviewing and implementing their preparedness measures for tropical storm conditions in and near the Tropical Storm Warning area. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week at a link to that is below:

Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips and a recently issued Public Information Statement on Tropical Storm preparedness can be seen via the links below:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurr_prepare_week_2017.txt
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_ts_watch_jose_9_17_17.txt

Once again, Hurricane Jose should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hurricane Jose Local Statement – Tropical Storm Warning Information Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory and key messages information on Hurricane Jose are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hurricane Jose Local Statement – Tropical Storm Warning Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1709181532.wtus81.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt32.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt42.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt22.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font12.KNHC.html

Hurricane Jose Key Messages Slide:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/AL122017_key_messages.png

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Tuesday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Jose and significant updates to Jose’s status as a tropical system from an intensity perspective and any changes to watches/warnings/advisories for the region.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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