October 2017

Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 10/29/17-Monday 10/30/17 Coastal Storm Impacts

October 29, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Significant coastal storm is on track to affect Southern New England with heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams with the potential for strong to damaging winds and scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages Sunday Afternoon into Monday Afternoon..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area. For Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Bristol, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island, it is for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with wind gusts of 60-70 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. For the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area, it is for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts of 55-60 MPH. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and could also be enhanced by any strong to severe thunderstorms that organize with this system..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area through late tonight. Total rainfall of 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. Rainfall closer to the 2″ range is expected in eastern areas though higher amounts could occur with any thunderstorms and associated heavy downpours. A more widespread area of heavier rainfall of up to 4″ with isolated higher amounts remain more likely over portions of the Connecticut River Valley and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. This amount of rainfall and any higher amounts in thunderstorms could cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM EDT Sunday Afternoon and will last into early Monday Morning. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm from Sunday morning through mid-afternoon and during the day on Monday through the afternoon hours. Pictures and video of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter providing the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. This will provide high situational awareness to NWS, the media, Non-Govermental organizations and emergency management..

A significant coastal storm is on track to affect Southern New England Sunday Afternoon into Monday Afternoon. The headlines of this coordination message detail the latest information with high wind warnings now posted for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area. The storm track and rapid storm intensification is expected to cause damaging winds across a widespread area with scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. There could even be a few strong to severe thunderstorms which would enhance the wind damage potential in areas affected by these thunderstorms. The one key item that remains uncertain is the influence of Tropical Storm Phillipe and how much moisture and energy from Phillipe interacts with this coastal storm and whether it further enhances the explosive development of this coastal storm.

Strong winds will likely extend past 6 AM Monday Morning as the coastal storm tracks into Northern New England and southern Canada. This will likely require additional wind headlines that will likely be issues later tonight or Monday Morning.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM EDT Sunday Afternoon and will last into early Monday Morning. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm from Sunday morning through mid-afternoon and during the day on Monday through the afternoon hours. Pictures and video of storm damage and flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds and through the email address pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter providing the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. This will provide high situational awareness to NWS, the media, Non-Govermental organizations and emergency management.

This will likely be the last coordination message on this storm for Sunday. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and additional wind headlines are posted for Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch and Flash Flood Watch Statements, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the WX1BOX Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/posts/1523226221105077
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057/1523325617761804/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 10/29/17-Monday 10/30/17 Coastal Storm Impacts

October 29, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Potentially significant coastal storm to affect Southern New England with heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams with the potential for strong to damaging winds and scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages Sunday Afternoon into Monday Afternoon..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday for Essex, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence, Bristol, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts of 50-60 MPH. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages and could also be enhanced by any strong to severe thunderstorms that organize with this system..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Total rainfall of 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. Rainfall closer to the 2″ range is expected in eastern areas with the heavier rainfall of up to 4″ with isolated higher amounts more likely over portions of the Connecticut River Valley and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. This amount of rainfall and any higher amounts in thunderstorms could cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM EDT Sunday Afternoon and will last into early Monday Morning. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm from Sunday morning through mid-afternoon and during the day on Monday through the afternoon hours..

The potential exists for a significant coastal storm to affect Southern New England Sunday Afternoon into Monday Afternoon. The headlines of this coordination message detail the latest information. Key items that will bear watching as we get closer to this storm system’s impacts include the following:

1.) Exact track of the coastal system. Some models are indicating a track up the Hudson River Valley or Western New England while other models are closer to Eastern New England. This will affect where the heaviest rainfall occurs and how widespread the damaging wind threat is in the region.
2.) How quickly the storm system intensifies as it tracks into and north of the region. This will also affect the rainfall/flooding and damaging wind impacts though it appears more likely that this intensification will occur near and south of Southern New England.
3.) Influence of Tropical Storm Phillipe and how much moisture and energy from this system interacts with the coastal storm and its explosive development.

High Wind Watches have been converted to High Wind Warnings across much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with High Wind Watches for the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage area. Further changes in watches and warnings as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400 PM EDT Sunday Afternoon and will last into early Monday Morning. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm from Sunday morning through mid-afternoon and during the day on Monday through the afternoon hours. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch and Flash Flood Watch Statements, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the WX1BOX Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/posts/1522860727808293
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/posts/1522755274485505

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 10/29/17-Monday 10/30/17 Coastal Storm Impacts

October 28, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Potentially significant coastal storm to affect Southern New England with heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams with the potential for strong to damaging winds and scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages Sunday Morning into Monday Afternoon..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area. The High Wind Watch is in effect from Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon for South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for Southeast Winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65-70 MPH on Sunday Night and West Winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH on Monday. The High Wind Watch is in effect from Sunday Evening to late Sunday Night for Southeast winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 55-60 MPH. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Total rainfall of 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. Rainfall closer to the 2″ range is expected in eastern areas with the heavier rainfall of up to 4″ with isolated higher amounts more likely over portions of the Connecticut River Valley and the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. This amount of rainfall and any higher amounts in thunderstorms could cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller rivers and streams..
..SKYWARN Activation is likely Sunday through Monday. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm from Sunday morning through mid-afternoon with Ops at NWS Taunton likely centered around Sunday Afternoon into early Monday Morning followed by self-activation monitoring into Monday Afternoon for continued threat of strong winds..

1.) Exact track of the coastal system. Some models are indicating a track up the Hudson River Valley or Western New England while other models are closer to Eastern New England. This will affect where the heaviest rainfall occurs and how widespread the damaging wind threat is in the region.
2.) How quickly the storm system intensifies as it tracks into and north of the region. This will also affect the rainfall/flooding and damaging wind impacts.
3.) Influence of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 and how much moisture and energy from this system interacts with the coastal storm and its explosive development.

As we get closer to the event, the configuration of watches will be changed based on the above 3 factors.

SKYWARN Activation is likely Sunday through Monday. SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm from Sunday morning through mid-afternoon with Ops at NWS Taunton likely centered around Sunday Afternoon into early Monday Morning followed by self-activation monitoring into Monday Afternoon for continued threat of strong winds. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch and Flash Flood Watch Statements, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experiemental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the WX1BOX Facebook Infographics:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/posts/1522247687869597

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday PM 10/24/17-Wednesday PM 10/25/17 – Severe Weather/Strong Wind/Heavy Rainfall Potential

October 24, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..A strong cold frontal system will bring an end to the milder than normal temperatures and bring with it heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding, strong to damaging winds and even the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe. There is a very low risk for an isolated and brief tornado in the coverage area as a secondary risk..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Hartford County Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts for localized flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and flashier small streams and rivers..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Noon Tuesday to 11 AM Wednesday for sustained winds of 10-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather from Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning and there is a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday Morning into early Wednesday Afternoon for portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely with Ops at NWS Taunton possible in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe..

There have been no significant changes to watches and advisories across the area at this time. There could be a need for expansion of the Flash Flood Watch into other parts of Southern New England in future updates and the severe weather concerns will be monitored.

Confidence continues on wind gusts up to 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts in stronger convective showers and thunderstorms as well as the potential for convective heavy rainfall in a relatively short period of time resulting in Flash Flooding. A Wind Advisory remains posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area from Noon Tuesday through 11 AM Wednesday Morning along with a Flash Flood Watch for Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut from Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. The headlines have additional info on the potential. SPC has maintained the marginal to slight risk for severe weather across portions of Southern New England in the Tuesday Afternoon to early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe. This will likely be the last complete coordination message on this weather situation unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for that update. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/posts/1518627524898280

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday PM 10/24/17-Wednesday PM 10/25/17 – Severe Weather/Strong Wind/Heavy Rainfall Potential

October 24, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..A strong cold frontal system will bring an end to the milder than normal temperatures and bring with it heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding, strong to damaging winds and even the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the primary threats in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe. There is a very low risk for an isolated and brief tornado in the coverage area as a secondary risk..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Hartford County Connecticut and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts for localized flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and flashier small streams and rivers..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area from Noon Tuesday to 11 AM Wednesday for sustained winds of 10-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather from Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning and there is a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday Morning into early Wednesday Afternoon for portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely with Ops at NWS Taunton possible in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe..

Several updates with this coordination message as confidence is growing on wind gusts up to 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts in stronger convective showers and thunderstorms as well as the potential for convective heavy rainfall in a relatively short period of time resulting in Flash Flooding. A Wind Advisory is now posted for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area from Noon Tuesday through 11 AM Wednesday Morning along with a Flash Flood Watch for Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut from Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. The headlines have additional info on the potential. SPC has maintained the marginal to slight risk for severe weather across portions of Southern New England in the Tuesday Afternoon to early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/posts/1518221631605536

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday PM 10/24/17-Wednesday PM 10/25/17 – Severe Weather/Strong Wind/Heavy Rainfall Potential

October 23, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

A strong cold front will slowly move through New England as we get into the Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Afternoon timeframe. The front will be accompanied by heavy rainfall and the potential for convective showers and even isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms which will have the potential to bring strong winds down to the surface in addition to heavy rainfall and there will also be the potential for general strong to damaging winds as the front moves through which could result in Wind headlines in future updates. With the dry conditions, the rainfall in some sense is much needed but could fall in a short period of time which could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding. The headlines of the coordination message cover the situation well including the marginal to slight risk for severe weather over Southern New England over the next couple of days.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible in the Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Afternoon timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: 2017 Southern New England Weather Conference – Saturday November 4th, 2017

October 22, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

The Southern New England Weather Conference will take place Saturday November 4th, 2017. The conference will be held at the Meditech Facility in Foxboro, Massachusetts. Some of the topics that will be covered in 2017 include:

-TV Meteorologist Panel Discussion
-Tribute to Dick Albert
-Ready for Hurricane Rhody?
-Two Unusual Tornadoes: Concord, MA (2016) & Conway, MA (2017)

The agenda for the Southern New England Weather Conference can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2017Agenda.pdf

Registration Fees:
Student/Teacher/Military/Blue Hill Observatory Member Registration: $99
Regular Registration: $109

To register go to the main Southern New England Weather Conference link at http://www.sneweatherconf.org/ and click the “Click here to register for conference” link.

We hope to see many of you at the 2017 Southern New England Weather Conference!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: SKYWARN Training Fall 2017 Classes

October 12, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

There are two Fall SKYWARN Training Classes available during the next few weeks. Below is the list of locations which can also be seen at the following link:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

Monday October 16th, 2017 – 700-900 PM:
Memorial Hall
198 Main Street
Monson, MA
Taught by: NWS Forecasters
Registration: None Required

Saturday October 21st, 2017: 1000 AM-1230 PM:
Brockton EMA Office – War Memorial Building
156 West Elm Street
Brockton, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Sponsored by: Brockton Emergency Management Agency
Registration: Pre-registration required – email bematraining@cobma.us

Tuesday October 24th, 2017: 630-830 PM:
Leominster Emergency Management Classroom A
37 Carter Street
Leominster, MA
Taught by: NWS Taunton Forecasters
Registration: None Required

Wednesday November 1st, 2017: 700-930 PM:
JF Kennedy Middle School Auditorium
1071 South Main Street
Southington (Plantsville), CT
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Sponsored by: Southington CERT Team
Registration: None Required

Please spread the word on the two Fall classes available. A full slate of SKYWARN Classes will be offered again in the Spring to Summer of 2018.

Respectfully Submitted,

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