Hello to all…
..Computer Models have coalesced on a solution bringing near blizzard to blizzard conditions, a significant strong to damaging wind threat, widespread moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding and heavy snowfall to the region. Remaining uncertainty centers around the rain/snow line and whether it tracks a bit more into Southeast New England and how far west heavy snow extends. Preparations for this major winter storm and blizzard should be completed by late Wednesday Night. Try not to focus on exact wind numbers and snowfall amounts and focus on impacts from this significant winter storm..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Thursday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Plymouth, Southern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County and Block Island RI. Total snowfall in the northeast end of the Blizzard Warning will range from 8-12″ with isolated amounts to 15″ with southern areas of the Blizzard Warning in the 5-10″ range with isolated amounts of 12″. Sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible at the coast and the potential for scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages from the damaging winds and potentially heavy wet snow and whiteout conditions..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for 2-6″ of snow and a period of whiteout conditions and near blizzard conditions. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts as high as 70 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts likely. These winds coupled with heavy wet snow is likely to cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages from the damaging winds..
..A High Wind Warning is in effect for Nantucket Island from 7 AM Thursday Morning through 1 AM Friday Morning for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts up to 70 MPH with the highest wind gusts possible. Nantucket Island is likely to receive mostly rain with the potential for 1-3″ of snow before precipitation ends as the storm moves out of the region..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM Friday for the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area except for Nantucket with a widespread swath of 6-12″ of snow with the high end range amounts and isolated higher amounts of up to 16″ across Eastern Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island. Sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with the highest wind gusts in the eastern end of the Winter Storm Warning area coupled with the heavy snow will bring isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages. Considerable blowing and drifting snow is likely particularly in eastern ends of the Warning area..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for the Thursday late morning/early afternoon high tide from 11 AM-4 PM for widespread moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding at the time of this high tide cycle resulting in numerous shore road closures and flooded basements near the coast line and possibly more significant structural damage..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 AM Thursday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard and seek advice from local ARES/RACES leadership. Storm photos and videos can be posted as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds and via the email address as pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the photos and/or videos unless otherwise noted..
A coastal storm will take shape off the Southeast US Coast today and rapidly intensify and track offshore of the Southern New England coast. Model trends have settled on a track around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark to slightly inside the benchmark. The latest updated headlines update the significant major winter storm and now blizzard potential. Key factors for this major winter storm system/blizzard:
1.) Whether a further westward trend continues bringing the rain-snow line further north and west into additional portions of Southeast New England and spreads heavier snow into western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area. This currently looks to be the case on the latest model runs with Winter Storm Warnings covering all western parts of Southern New England in this update and Blizzard Warnings shifted a bit north and east.
2.) Where the setup for the strong to damaging winds along with a heavier/wetter snow sets up in the region as this is the area where the more significant number of power outages could occur. This is currently expected where the Blizzard Warning is in effect and in the southeast areas of the Winter Storm Warning closest to the Blizzard Warning area but could adjust a bit more depending on the storm track and trends in the storm track.
3.) The rain/snow line is currently depicted to be over the Cape Cod Canal with a changeover to snow and a rapid period of snow accumulation expected over Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard with a smaller accumulation over Nantucket Island. One reliable model actually brought this further north and west into Southeast New England but has slipped it back into position near the Cape Cod Canal in current model runs. This will need to be watched carefully.
One of the things that is easy to do with a storm of this magnitude is to focus on exact snowfall, exact wind gusts and weather terms that at times get used in other storms but sometimes can be made more used in one storm situation versus another. It is important to focus on impacts and the biggest concerns while understanding there will be heavy snow and the potential for blizzard conditions is the impact of strong to damaging winds and extent of power outages understanding that following the storm will be conditions as cold or even colder than what was experienced in the past week. As we have emphasized in other major winter storms/blizzards, remember the following:
People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.
Pictures and videos from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be posted as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds and via the email address as pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the photos and/or videos unless otherwise noted.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 AM Thursday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the progress of this major winter storm/blizzard and seek advice from local ARES/RACES leadership. This will be the last coordination message on this major winter storm/blizzard as we shift to operations mode Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps and Facebook Infographics:
NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Taunton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1585189484908750/1585188964908802/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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