Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England today and potentially reaching areas further east into portions of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts as a cold front will bring an end to the high humidity over the region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of New England and other parts of the Northeast in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1230 PM to monitor the severe weather potential for today..

Heating is occurring as yesterday’s convection has cleared out of the area. A cold front or trough with lesser humidity will swing through New England this afternoon and tonight. We have the heating to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere. Wind shear profiles are actually a bit stronger than they were yesterday. The key to the aerial coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will be how much drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere effects thunderstorm development. This drier air could make the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms limited or very isolated. If the dry air does not stifle the development of thunderstorms, then the coverage over the area would be more substantial given the instability, wind shear, and triggering mechanisms in place.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1230 PM to monitor the severe weather potential for today. This will be the only coordination message as we move to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

..Another round of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms is likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence around 100 PM lasting through Friday Evening..

Satellite imagery shows clear conditions except for low clouds along the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The clear conditions should allow for heating and destabilization across the area. A cold front will approach western New England and there should be sufficient wind shear along with cooling conditions aloft and sufficient heating and destabilization to bring an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm threat to this area. The timeframe for severe weather is after 2 PM Friday through early evening. Areas of Northern Massachusetts east of the current risk areas should also likely monitor this scenario as depending on timing, strong to severe thunderstorms could move into portions of this area. The marginal and slight risks for severe weather were shifted slightly eastward into parts of Central Massachusetts and most of Northern Connecticut for this update.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 100 PM lasting through Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1807271326.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. This potential is likely to continue into Thursday as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible anytime Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening..

The very humid pattern will continue through at least Thursday across Southern New England. A cold front will slowly approach Southern New England on Wednesday. As we get into Wednesday Afternoon and evening, the tropical stream of moisture that was largely confined to west of New England outside of a few downpours will become more numerous in nature and potentially grow into thunderstorms as well if there is enough heating. There will be sufficient wind shear that if instability is sufficient, it would set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Night and it could last through Thursday as well. The main threats would be strong to damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding. Some localized areas of Western New England have received several inches of rain particularly from Monday’s heavy downpours and thunderstorms so these areas would be most vulnerable.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible anytime Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Wednesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations active since 745 AM Sunday monitoring severe weather and flash flood potential. The isolated tornado and waterspout threat has diminished to a very low probability but general strong winds with gusts up to and possible over 50 MPH and heavier downpours causing urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats through mid to late afternoon..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..After a beautiful Saturday, heat and humidity will return with a coastal type storm system along with the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued South-Coastal Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island into portions of Eastern Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions around and after 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible but an exact timeframe for Ops needs remains unclear so this will continue to be monitored..

A fairly intense coastal type storm system for July will affect the region Sunday. A strong warm front is still expected to traverse the region and along and behind the warm front, dewpoints will soar from the comfortable upper 50’s to lower 60’s to the sultry low to mid 70s. Based on the track of the low pressure system a bit further west, its possible that the threat for an isolated tornado and waterspout has diminished somewhat as the triple point of the low will be further west, however, that remains uncertain and the wind shear will still be more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms and there will be a level of turning in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado or waterspout with the warm front. The amount of instability will be more limited and will limit the coverage of the severe weather and it will put much of Southern New England in an environment of a low instability/high shear. That being said, instability does increase as the day wears on Sunday and if there is an overlap with the turning of the atmosphere associated with the warm front with that instability, it would create an environment that can produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and an isolated tornado/waterspout as the main severe weather threats. Heavy rainfall is also possible as thunderstorms may train along and behind the warm front and given its a coastal system it could setup in a band ahead of the low pressure center. This rainfall if it trains over the same areas could bring an urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flood potential that will need to be monitored. The focus areas of where this heaviest rainfall is unclear. It could be over a portion of Southern New England or just south and west of the region. A focus area of monitoring will be the rain moving from southeast to Northwest west of the lower pressure center offshore of southern New England and is moving northward with the coastal low. Also, in any heavier convective showers and as the warm frontal passage occurs, general strong wind gusts of between 35 and 50 MPH are possible particularly in coastal Southeast New England if the heavy convective showers or conditions allow those stronger winds to reach the surface.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions around and after 4 AM Sunday through Sunday Afternoon. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible but an exact timeframe for Ops needs remains unclear so this will continue to be monitored. If Ops are initiated, a shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows stating Ops are initiated. If ops aren’t initiated and conditions and time allows for it, another complete coordination message may be issued by 10 AM Sunday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..After one last comfortable day, heat and humidity will return with a coastal type storm system along with the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall with the potential of urban and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of an isolated tornado or waterspout. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed South-Coastal Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island into portions of Eastern Massachusetts in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions late Saturday Night into Sunday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible..

A fairly intense coastal type storm system for July will affect the region late Saturday Night into Sunday. A strong warm front will traverse the region and along and behind the warm front, dewpoints will soar from the comfortable upper 50’s to lower 60’s to the sultry low to mid 70s. Wind Shear will be more than sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms and there will be a level of turning in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado or waterspout. The amount of instability will be more limited and will limit the coverage of the severe weather and it will put much of Southern New England in an environment of a low instability/high shear. These environments can produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and an isolated tornado as the main severe weather threats. Heavy rainfall is also possible as thunderstorms may train along and behind the warm front and given its a coastal system it could setup in a band ahead of the low pressure center. This rainfall if it trains over the same areas could bring an urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flood potential that will need to be monitored. The focus areas of where this heaviest rainfall is unclear. It could be over a portion of Southern New England or just south and west of the region. Also, in any heavier convective showers and as the warm frontal passage occurs, general strong winds of between 35 and 50 MPH are possible particularly in coastal Southeast New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor conditions late Saturday Night into Sunday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are also possible. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

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Hello to all…

..Strong Cold front will bring an end to the intense heat and humidity today across Southern New England..
..Today’s heat and humidity will bring heat indices into the mid to upper 90s and a Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 5 PM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County Rhode Island, and Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations for late Tuesday Morning through Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. An isolated tornado is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England from the Boston to Providence corridor in a slight risk for severe weather and Southeast New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Noon Tuesday through this evening for Northern Connecticut and Essex, Middlesex, Worcester, Franklin, Hampden and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for urban and poor drainage flash flooding potential..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 10-1030 AM Tuesday..

A strong cold front will sweep through Southern New England during the day Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Timing of the front looks reasonable to allow for daytime heating and sufficient instability in the region. Wind Shear profiles are looking slightly stronger and therefore will be sufficient coupled with dewpoints greater than 70 degrees to bring isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with interior areas favored. The headlines outline the severe weather/flash flood potential. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday include the following:

1.) Any low clouds/fog or leftover overnight convection cloudiness breaks to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for expected instability to be realized. With the exception of south coastal areas, satellite imagery shows widespread clearing which will allow sufficient heating and destabilization so this has increased the severe weather and flash flood potential.
2.) Cold frontal passage timing is at time of peak heating as expected and this timing looks correct and favorable for severe weather/flash flood potential.
3.) The secondary threat of an isolated tornado is centered along and north of Route 2 to the New Hampshire border where a great threat for storm rotation is noted. The main threats, however, remain damaging straightline winds and flash flooding.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 1000-1030 AM Tuesday. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 11 AM Tuesday. This time could be adjusted based on convective trends tomorrow..

A strong cold front will sweep through Southern New England during the day Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Timing of the front looks reasonable to allow for daytime heating and sufficient instability in the region. Wind Shear profiles while slightly marginal look sufficient coupled with dewpoints greater than 70 degrees to bring isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England with interior areas favored. The headlines outline the severe weather/flash flood potential. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Tuesday include the following:

1.) Any low clouds/fog or leftover overnight convection cloudiness breaks to allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for expected instability to be realized.
2.) Cold frontal passage timing is at time of peak heating as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 11 AM Tuesday. This time could be adjusted based on convective trends tomorrow. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180716_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible today across interior Southern New England particularly Northern and West-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Timeframe for severe weather is between 4-8 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today to monitor the severe weather potential..

Heat and humidity, though not as significant as what was seen last week, will impact Southern New England today. A cold front will swing through the region later this afternoon and tonight. Heat and humidity will provide good instability and wind shear profiles are sufficient to produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 4-8 PM and across interior Southern New England particularly in Western/Central and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut where SPC has outlined a marginal risk for severe weather.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible today to monitor the severe weather potential. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on the severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted when time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more