August 2019

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 8/28/19-Thursday Morning 8/29/19 – Flash Flood/Heavy Rainfall Potential

August 28, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A cold front moving across New England late Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Morning coupled with moisture from offshore Tropical Depression Erin will set the stage for widespread general rainfall and the potential for flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and possibly some small streams. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island through late Wednesday Night for 2-4″ of rainfall with localized amounts of up to 5″ possible. Western areas should monitor but are expected to receive less rainfall..
..An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with strong to damaging wind, frequent lightning and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out during the evening and overnight hours..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 530 PM EDT Wednesday Evening through late tonight to monitor flash flooding and any isolated severe weather potential..

A cold front approaching from New York State will move its way through New England tonight and tap into a moisture feed from Tropical Depression Erin to bring heavy downpours and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms to the area. The headlines depict the current thinking regarding heavy rainfall and flood potential. Key factors include:

1.) Whether any heavy training rainfall will track over a given area to result in the higher end rainfall amounts.
2.) Whether any heavy training rainfall will track over vulnerable urban areas or areas of more flashy small streams/rivers.
3.) Any thunderstorm development that enhances heavy rainfall.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 530 PM EDT Wednesday Evening through late tonight to monitor flash flooding and any isolated severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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Special Announcement: Mish Michaels Presentation on Cape Cod Tornadoes – SKYWARN Training – ARES SEC Forum and High-Level SKYWARN Overview at Northeast HamXposition in Boxboro Mass Friday 9/6/19-Sunday 9/8/19

August 27, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

At the Northeast HamXposition – ARRL New England Division Amateur Radio Convention in Boxboro, Massachusetts, there will be a number of interesting presentations regarding weather, SKYWARN, including a SKYWARN Training session Friday 9/6/19 from 200-430 PM and ARES at the convention and an ARES/RACES/SKYWARN booth to ask questions of ARES, SKYWARN Coordinators. The Northeast HamXposition runs Friday 9/6/19-Sunday 9/8/19. Here are some of the presentations of most interest to those on the SKYWARN Announcement email list:

Friday 9/6/19:
1000 AM-1050 AM: Importance of SKYWARN Reporting and how it supported the Cape Cod Tornado Assessment
1100 AM-1150 AM: Fundamentals of NVIS in EMCOMM
1100 AM-1250 PM: Traffic Handling Practices for Emergency Communications
1200 PM-1250 PM: Go-Kit Basics
100-150 PM: Emergency Communications in a Major Disaster: Puerto Rico and Others
200-430 PM: SKYWARN Training (This is the full training class and will get you a Spotter ID card if a newly trained spotter or count for a renewal of your SKYWARN Training)
200-500 PM: NBEMS and Winlink

Anyone wishing to attend these presentations on Friday 9/6/19 can do so free of charge.

Saturday 9/7/19:
900 AM-1050 AM: New England Section Emergency Coordinator Forum
1100 AM-1150 AM: An Introduction to Traffic Handling & Being a Net Control Station
1200 PM-1250 PM: National Traffic System Seminar

Sunday 9/8/19:
900 AM-950 AM: SKYWARN & VoIP Hurricane Net Overview
1000 AM-1050 AM: MARS Overview

There will be many other Amateur Radio related presentations at the Northeast Hamxposition at Boxboro. For a complete list of the forums, check out the following link at the hamxposition.org web site:
https://hamxposition.org/forums-and-classes/forum-schedule

Also, for anyone interested in obtaining their Amateur Radio license, there will be a technician-in-a-day course sponsored by the Cape Ann Amateur Radio Association on Saturday 9/7/19 from 9 AM-5 PM. The details on registration can be found via the following link:
https://hamxposition.org/tech-in-a-day

We hope to see many of you at the Northeast HamXposition, ARRL New England Division Convention in Boxboro, Massachusetts. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 8/21/19 Severe Weather Potential

August 21, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening, 8/21/19, across much of Southern New England particularly along and north of the Boston to Providence line. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats with the main timeframe between 2-9 PM EDT Wednesday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather which is a slight expansion in the risk area since last night..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM EDT Wednesday to monitor severe weather potential..

A warm front is pushing its way through Southern New England this morning. There has been some cloud cover and some showers and thunderstorms with this warm front but satellite imagery and radar indicates clearing behind this activity. The severe weather with this late morning/early afternoon activity is low but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible with this activity. Most models continue to take this warm front through the area through early afternoon with clearing behind it setting the stage for a favorable environment for severe weather potential across the region with sufficient wind shear profiles and significant heating for destabilization and high instability with a trigger in an approaching cold front. The potential for a reasonable amount of strong to severe thunderstorms is likely though we will continue to monitor how active the warm front is and how quickly the cloud cover moves out of the area. The timeframe for increased coverage of strong to severe thunderstorm activity after the original activity is after 2-3 PM this afternoon through about 9 PM EDT this Wednesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the current thinking.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM EDT Wednesday to monitor severe weather potential. This will be the final coordination message as we move into Amateur Radio Ops mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1908210852.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – 8/20/19 Severe Weather Potential

August 21, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Afternoon and Evening, 8/21/19, across much of Southern New England particularly along and north of the Boston to Providence line. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats with the main timeframe between 2-9 PM EDT Wednesday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for South Coastal Massachusetts, Southeast Coastal Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands which is in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM EDT Wednesday to monitor severe weather potential..

A warm front will push its way through Southern New England on Wednesday. Most models take this warm front through the area with little to no cloud cover and precipitation setting the stage for a favorable environment for severe weather potential across the region with sufficient wind shear profiles and significant heating for destabilization and high instability with a trigger in an approaching cold front. There are a few models, however, that bring the warm front in with shower and thunderstorm activity, cloud cover, and perhaps slow the progress of the warm front which could mitigate the severe weather potential more if that were to transpire. At this time, the potential for a reasonable amount of strong to severe thunderstorms is likely but the position of the warm front, how active it is and any cloud cover will need to be monitored to determine the extent of the severe weather potential more clearly. A slower and more active passage may limit the severe weather potential while a more rapid and less active passage of the warm front could increase the severe weather potential. This will be monitored and updated Wednesday Morning. The headlines of the message depict the current thinking.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM EDT Wednesday to monitor severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190820_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 8/19/19 – Severe Weather Potential

August 19, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely today Monday 8/19/19 across much of Southern New England especially from the Boston to Providence area north and west through the rest of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of this area in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather surrounding the slight risk area in Southeast New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 3 PM EDT Monday lasting to potentially 10 or 11 PM EDT Monday Evening. Severe weather potential timeframe is maximized between 3-9 PM EDT today..

After a couple days of isolated severe thunderstorm activity in parts of Southern New England, a few more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today across much of Southern New England particularly north and west of the Boston to Providence area though all areas are at some risk. Wind shear profiles are marginal to near sufficient for a bit more widespread development of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region and there will be high instability with strong heating to allow the atmosphere to destabilize. The atmospheric trigger will be a trough that will swing through Southern New England during the mid-afternoon and early evening hours.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 3 PM EDT Monday lasting to potentially 10 or 11 PM EDT Monday Evening. Severe weather potential timeframe is maximized between 3-9 PM EDT today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1908191449.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/13/19 – Flood & Severe Weather Potential

August 13, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Continuing to monitor a storm system with the potential to produce heavy rainfall sufficient for some urban and poor drainage flooding issues particularly in Southeast New England for Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night. Also, monitoring the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Southeast Coastal New England with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats though this threat is a bit lower than it was last night.
..Rainfall of 1-2″ is expected with isolated higher amounts possible particularly in Southeast New England and lesser amounts outside of Southeast New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and heavy rainfall potential Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message on this storm event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/13/19 Flood & Severe Weather Potential

August 13, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Monitoring a storm system with the potential to produce heavy rainfall sufficient for some urban and poor drainage flooding issues particularly in Southeast New England for Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Also, monitoring the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southeast Coastal New England for Tuesday where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this region in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..Rainfall of 1-2″ is expected with isolated higher amounts possible particularly in Southeast New England. There is also a lower probability for more widespread areas of heavy rainfall if the storm system tracks closer to Southern New England. A closer storm track may also bring a greater risk of severe weather to Southeast New England if that occurred..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and heavy rainfall potential Tuesday through Tuesday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Tuesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190812_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message – Thursday Evening 8/8/19 Severe Weather Potential

August 8, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Line of strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern New York will likely impact Western New England with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail. frequent lightning and heavy rainfall as the main threats after 6 PM EDT. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through Midnight EDT Friday for Franklin, Hampshire, Hamdpen Counties of Massachusetts and Hartford and Tolland Counties of Northern Connecticut..
..Some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible in Eastern New England but the threat here maybe less given the loss of daytime heating as the line approaches..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential tonight given the short fused nature of this event. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch statement, NWS Boston/Norton Severe Thunderstorm Watch County Outline, NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch Statement:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0562.html

NWS Boston/Norton Severe Thunderstorm Watch Aerial Outline:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday PM 8/7/19-Thursday AM 8/8/19 – Severe Weather Potential

August 7, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Mid-Afternoon, Wednesday Night August 7th and potentially overnight into early Thursday Morning August 8th. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather. This risk shifts into central and Eastern New England later Wednesday Night, overnight into early Thursday Morning into central and Eastern New England later Wednesday Night, overnight into early Thursday Morning though there is some activity that could also occur in this area in the Wednesday Afternoon and early evening timeframe as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 130 PM Wednesday Afternoon. Ops could extend very late into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours or it is possible we will switch to self-activation mode during the overnight depending on severe weather potential and the timing of the various potential waves of strong to severe thunderstorms..

The next 18-24 hours has the potential to be fairly active across Southern New England with the potential for a few rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Not every location will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but there could be a few rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the first of which occurring after 2 PM and then another round of activity potentially later Wednesday Night into early Thursday Morning during the overnight period. Instability levels will be sufficient with wind shear levels marginal but strengthening with time. Models are also indicating instability potentially increasing during the overnight despite the time of day because of cooling temperatures aloft. The setup has the potential for a couple to few rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the primary threats as listed in the headlines but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 130 PM Wednesday Afternoon. Ops could extend very late into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours or it is possible we will switch to self-activation mode during the overnight depending on severe weather potential and the timing of the various potential waves of strong to severe thunderstorms. This will be the only full coordination message sent on today’s severe weather potential. If time allows, a shortened update could be issued later Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1908071553.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 8/3/19 Severe Weather Potential

August 3, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday Mid-Afternoon through early Saturday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon into the early evening..

An area of showers swung through Northern Massachusetts this morning with and will pass offshore of portions of Eastern Massachusetts by early afternoon with rapid clearing behind it. Additional showers and potential thunderstorms are popping up across Eastern New York and will swing through portions of Southern New England during the mid-afternoon through early evening. Instability will be sufficient for some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms despite weak wind shear profiles in the atmosphere. Coverage, however, is expected to be limited due to the weak shear.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon into the early evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations and monitoring mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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