Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton will be doing event review webinars on recent weather events including the May 15th 2020 Severe Thunderstorms and the May 23rd 2020 flooding on the islands. The May 15th, 2020 severe thunderstorm event review will be Wednesday 6/3/20 from 5-6 PM and the May 23rd 2020 Flooding on the Islands event review will be Thursday 6/4/20 from 5-6 PM. Registration details for these webinars can be seen at the following link:

https://www.weather.gov/box/Event_Review

We hope many will get the chance to see these event reviews provided by NWS Boston/Norton meteorologists.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, will be active with its on air-test Saturday 5/30/20 from 9 AM-5 PM EDT. They will be on the *WX_TALK* Echolink conference node: 7203/IRLP 9219 reflector system from 4-5 PM EDT (2000-2100 UTC) Saturday 5/30/20. A link to the WX4NHC On-Air Test Announcement from Assistant WX4NHC Coordinator, WD4R-Julio Ripoll, is listed below:

Below is our WX4NHC Annual Station Test announcement and a brief statement about the upcoming hurricane season.

The 2020 Hurricane Season outlook is about 140% more active than the average season.

That is about 14-18 named storms, which includes 7-9 hurricanes, possibly 4 major hurricanes (Cat-3 to Cat-5).

The 2019 season had 18 named storms, 6 became hurricanes, of which 3 were major hurricanes.

The above average prediction is largely due to the hot Atlantic and Caribbean waters and lack of a substantial El Niño in the Pacific.

The combination of a busy hurricane season and the ongoing Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic could be a nightmare scenario for areas affected by hurricanes.

FEMA and local Emergency Management Agencies are issuing COVID-19 guidelines for Hurricane Shelters, which include face masks and social spacing.

Please stay informed and prepare your Hurricane Supplies early.

Good Luck and Stay Safe!

73 de WX4NHC

Announcement from WX4NHC
Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, Miami Florida

WX4NHC will be On-The-Air for the Annual Station Test
Saturday, May 30th , 2020 from 9AM- 5 PM EDT ( 1300z- 2100z)
This will be our 40th year of public service at NHC.

The purpose of this event is to test WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station Operations and equipment, antennas and computers prior to this year’s Hurricane Season, which starts June 1st and runs through November 30th.

This event is good practice for Ham Radio Operators world-wide to practice Amateur Radio communications available during times of severe weather.

We will be making brief contacts on many frequencies and modes, exchanging signal reports and basic weather data exchange (Sunny, Rain, Temperature, etc.) with any station in any location.

WX4NHC will be On-The-Air on HF, VHF, UHF , 2 & 30 meter APRS and WinLink wx4nhc@winlink.org subject must contain //WL2K.

We will try to stay on the Hurricane Watch Net frequency 14.325 MHz most of the time. Also 7.268 MHz depending on propagation.

However, we will be operating different frequencies depending on QRM.

You may be able to find us on HF by using one of the DX Spotting Networks,

Such as the DX Summit Web Site: http://www.dxsummit.fi/Search.aspx

We will also be on VoIP Hurricane Net 4pm-5pm EDT (2000-2100z)
(IRLP node 9219 / EchoLink WX-TALK Conference node 7203). http://www.voipwx.net/

Florida Statewide SARNET and local VHF & UHF Repeaters will be contacted.

QSL Cards are available via WD4R. Please send your card with a S.A.S.E.

Please do NOT send QSLs directly to the Hurricane Center address, as it will get delayed.

Due to security measures and COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic: NO VISITORS will be allowed entry to NHC.

For more information about WX4NHC, please visit our website
www.wx4nhc.org

Thank you for your participation in the WX4NHC Annual Station Test event.

73, Julio – WD4R
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
Julio Ripoll Architect WD4R
WX4NHC Amateur Radio Asst. Coordinator
www.wx4nhc.org
Celebrating 40 years at the
National Hurricane Center
www.nhc.noaa.gov

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Severe Weather Risk has shifted a bit further north and west with Western and Northern Massachusetts into Southern New Hampshire, clipping parts of Northwest Connecticut as the key risk area but all areas should monitor similar to the previous coordination message particularly interior Southern New England..
..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Friday particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also possible in interior Northern Rhode Island through interior Northeast Massachusetts along and north and west of the Boston to Providence. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with the secondary threat for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has shifted the enhanced risk area to focus on Western and Central Massachusetts as far east as North-Central Middlesex County Massachusetts clipping a portion of Northwest Connecticut. A slight risk of severe weather exists for the rest of Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts up to the Boston to Providence corridor. East coastal and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island remain in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. The timeframe for severe weather is between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..

At 1110 AM, the warm front has shifted through Southern New England with clearing evident on visible satellite imagery across interior Southern New England across, Connecticut, Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts from the Boston to Providence corridor north and west. Clearing is also starting in southeastern areas as well. Based on the timing of the cold front being a bit later, the focus for more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms is across Western and Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire clipping Northwest Connecticut. Radar does show an area of showers over Southern Ontario Canada and lighter showers in South-Central New York where which may be an area that allow severe thunderstorms to develop in the earlier peak heating timeframe of 3-7 PM and will bear watching. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing allows for the expected heating and destabilization as modeled. This is progressing as expected.
2.) The position of the warm front verifies allowing most of Southern New England to be in the warm sector. This has progressed as expected.
3.) The position of and timing of the cold front is a bit later than previously forecasted which is why the enhanced risk for severe weather has shifted into Northwest Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts through North-Central Middlesex County Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. The key item is whether the warm/cold frontal positions will allow for the triggering mechanism to be close enough for severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of the main line increasing the severe weather risk. The squall line of severe thunderstorms will arrive towards sunset where instability will be dropping but jet dynamics and forcing could allow the severe thunderstorms along the line or activity ahead of the line to maintain itself for 2-3 hours after sunset with the focus again in Northwest Connecticut, Western and Central Massachusetts through North-Central Middlesex County Mass and Southern New Hampshire. If the timing is later or jet dynamics do not compensate to maintain the squall line of activity or any activity ahead of the squall line, the severe weather potential would be more muted and/or isolated to scattered in nature. Regardless, the potential will have to be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Friday particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also possible in interior Northern Rhode Island through interior Northeast Massachusetts along and north and west of the Boston to Providence. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with the secondary threat for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in an Enhanced risk of severe weather for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather and east coastal and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. The timeframe for severe weather is between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon..

A warm front will swing through Southern New England with a period of showers and downpours Friday Morning. The front will hang up somewhere in Southern Vermont and Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts. Clearing is expected and with the warm front in close proximity, there will be the formation of strong to severe thunderstorms in the heating and the warm front serving as a trigger. Following that a cold front will swing through the area with the potential for a squall line of severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing allows for the expected heating and destabilization as modeled.
2.) The position of the warm front verifies allowing most of Southern New England to be in the warm sector.
3.) Timing of the cold front through the area and forcing around the warm front to allow for severe thunderstorm development in the 3-10 PM time window.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200514_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday. The greatest risk for severe weather is along, north and west of the I-95 corridor but all areas should monitor. The timeframe for the potential is 1-8 PM ET Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Note for Rhode Island SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations, SKYWARN Net activity will be on the NB1RI (formerly KA1RCI) repeater system for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity that moves into Rhode Island..

Very cold air aloft with sufficient wind shear and instability will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking and have changed little since the last update. Key factors for the severe weather potential include:

1.) Radar and Satellite imagery shows a warm front swinging through the area with clouds and showers but shows reasonable clearing behind that activity. That clearing with temperatures cooling aloft rapidly should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Moisture return as a warm front moves through the area through the late Morning and early afternoon hours of Monday.
3.) Wind shear values remain sufficient for strong to damaging wind potential and rotating storms that could enhance the hail threat.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into self-activation mode. Note for Rhode Island SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations, SKYWARN Net activity will be on the NB1RI (formerly KA1RCI) repeater system for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity that moves into Rhode Island. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

Very cold air aloft with sufficient wind shear and instability will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the severe weather potential include:

1.) Any cloud cover at the start of the day that is expected to clear to allow destabilization to take place with the cold air aloft.
2.) Moisture return as a warm front moves through the area early Monday Morning
3.) Wind shear values which have moved around a bit in intensity are now sufficient for strong to damaging wind potential and rotating storms that could enhance the hail threat.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200510_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Strong Storm System and Unusually Cold Arctic Air for May will bring the potential for a coating to 2″ of snow in grassy areas particularly in the higher elevations of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut overnight into early Saturday Morning, minor coastal flooding during the early Saturday Morning high tide, strong to damaging winds in portions of Southern New England and the potential for Snow Squalls, Graupel and Small hail embedded with rain showers during the day Saturday and Saturday Night..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM to 9 PM Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands with a Wind Advisory in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM Saturday for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with Gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Areas outside the Wind Advisory could see wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range as well..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 11 PM Friday Night to 3 AM Saturday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding of shore roads in this area. South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see some low lying roads with a bit of splashover at the time of high tide tonight from 8-12 PM Friday Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor much of Saturday for strong wind gusts, wind damage, any snowfall accumulation reports and any reports of Snow Squalls and small hail/graupel in the region. Also, if snowfall were to reach 3″ or more, this would result in Wet Snow damage to trees and wires though this appears to be a remote possibility at this time..

An unusual combination of a coastal storm strengthening as it moves east of Southern New England and unusually cold Arctic Air for May will combine to produce one more light snowfall in grassy areas particularly in the higher elevations, strong to damaging winds and the potential for snow squalls and graupel and small hail embedded with the rain showers during the day Saturday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for this storm event include:

1.) Models have trended more inland and warmer with the storm system but there will still be the potential for light snow accumulations in Northwest Connecticut, Western and Northern Massachusetts. If it were to be a bit colder and snow amounts were 3″ or more, it could potentially induce some wet snow damage in these areas.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur during much of the day Saturday in the Wind Advisory areas with locations outside of the Wind Advisory seeing wind gusts of 40-45 MPH. Isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and power outages will be possible due to these winds.
3.) Snow Squalls and rain showers with small hail and graupel will affect portions of Southern New England over the course of the day Saturday and will bear monitoring.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor much of Saturday for strong wind gusts, wind damage, any snowfall accumulation reports and any reports of Snow Squalls and small hail/graupel in the region. Also, if snowfall were to reach 3″ or more, this would result in Wet Snow damage to trees and wires though this appears to be a remote possibility at this time.

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

The week of May 3rd through May 9th is the National Hurricane Center’s National Hurricane Preparedness Week. A link with hurricane preparedness information can be seen here:

National Hurricane Center – National Hurricane Preparedness Week:
https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness

In addition, for anyone with children interested in weather and hurricanes or for some stay at home learning opportunities, the National Hurricane Center is offering webinars in the Southern New England region for 4th, 5th and 6th graders on Tuesday May 12th and Thursday May 14th at 11 AM. These webinars have been offered for other states and recorded as well. More information is available at the following link:

Hurricanes at Home! Webinars from the National Hurricane Center for 4th, 5th, and 6th Graders:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/Hurricanes_at_Home.pdf

Finally, Colorado State University as well as the Penn State University seasonal hurricane outlooks have forecasted an above normal hurricane season. See seasonal outlook information below:

Colorado State University – Hurricane Seasonal Outlook:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf

Penn State University – Hurricane Seasonal Outlook:
http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/research/Hurricane2020.html

We hope everyone finds this information useful for preparedness and educational purposes.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box