Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 10/10/20 Strong Wind and Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong winds causing isolated pockets of wind damage occurring in Southeast New England. Later this evening, there is a low risk for isolated to possibly scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern New England though the most significant severe thunderstorm threat is mostly north of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 PM EDT for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts including Eastern Plymouth County, the Greater Fall River and New Bedford area and Cape Cod and the Islands as well as Newport County RI for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. This will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.
..These winds will combine with the extended dry weather conditions to cause an elevated fire risk region wide and Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island are under a Red Flag Warning for fire weather through 8 PM EDT Saturday Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts northern Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with portions of Northeast New York and Northern New England in a slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind, fire weather and severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of strong winds is occurring across Southeast New England today and with the drought conditions in the region, we need to monitor fire weather concerns for the region. There is also the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly in Northern Massachusetts. The timing of the cold front will be during the evening which lessens the severe weather potential in Southern New England but will still be monitored. Areas of Northeast New York and Northern New England have the greatest severe weather potential. That said if any strong to severe thunderstorms were able to form earlier during the heating of the day or if the strong forcing of the cold front and jet dynamics can compensate for a lack of instability, there would be some potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms especially over Northern Massachusetts and the potential will be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong wind, fire weather and severe weather potential for this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message on this potential unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Wind Advisory Statement, Red Flag Warning, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Red Flag Warning Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box