Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday 2/1/21-Tuesday 2/2/21 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Coastal Storm has the potential to bring significant snow to much of Southern New England with a snow/sleet/freezing rain and rain mixture across Southeast New England, strong to damaging winds in coastal areas and the potential for widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts, Providence, Kent, Washington and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 14″ and wind gusts of 35-40 MPH with isolated higher gusts closest to the coast. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Newport County RI, Southern Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts from Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts to 50 MPH. The snow will have the potential to be heavy and wet and that along with the strong winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages possible..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Cape Cod and the Islands will also see light amounts of snow before changing back to rain and then potentially back to snow before ending. Areas closest to the Cape Cod Canal would see the highest amounts..
..Areas of widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding are likely during the time of high tide Monday Night and Tuesday and this could require a Coastal Flood Watch in future forecasts. Flooding of shore roads is potentially likely along with beach erosion and perhaps minor structural coastal flood damage..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Monday into Tuesday for multiple weather hazards including snowfall totals, precipitation changeover, wet snow/wind damage reports and coastal flood road closures and damage reports. Pictures of storm damage can be posted as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

A coastal storm will impact Southern New England with a myriad of weather hazards across Southern New England late Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon with significant snowfall, strong to damaging winds along and near the coast and the potential for widespread minor with areas of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. The headlines depict the current thinking which includes an expansion of the Winter Storm Watch into Southeast New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands as some models keep an extended period of heavy snow in Southeast New England before changing to rain. Key factors include:

1.) The rain/snow line and coastal front setup. This will depict which areas see the heaviest snow as areas along and north and west of that coastal front will receive the heaviest snow while areas south and east of that line will see a snow to wintry mix to rain changing back to snow before ending. Some models bring this line up to the I-95 corridor while other models keep this further south particularly when the heaviest precipitation occurs leading to higher snowfall amounts. This is why the watch has been expanded into parts of Southeast New England.
2.) Models indicate areas of Southern New England particularly nearest to that coastal front that sets up could see a heavy, wet snow that combined with any winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Strong to damaging winds at the coast and the strength of those winds. That will determine the extent of any wind damage and have some impact on the coastal flood potential.
4.) Some models cutoff the precipitation early on Tuesday while other high resolution models keep it snowing steadily into Tuesday Afternoon resulting in additional accumulations particularly in interior Southern New England. This aspect will have to be monitored as it would result in higher snowfall amounts over an extended period.
5.) Extent of coastal flooding based on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and the timing of the strongest winds with the high tide cycles. If confidence increases, Coastal Flood Watches will be posted for the next couple of high tide cycles.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely Monday into Tuesday for multiple weather hazards including snowfall totals, precipitation changeover, wet snow/wind damage reports and coastal flood road closures and damage reports. Pictures of storm damage can be posted as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The next coordination message will be posted at 1030 PM Sunday Evening.

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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