Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Elsa Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/8/21 Severe Weather Potential and Late Thursday Night 7/8/21-Friday 7/9/21 Tropical Storm Elsa Impacts
Hello to all…
..Active Weather Pattern through Friday with additional severe weather potential Thursday and people in Southern New England need to prepare for heavy rainfall across much of Southern New England and strong to damaging winds and severe weather potential in Southeast New England from Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night through Friday Afternoon..
..Starting with Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today as another potential round of Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely anytime between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday across the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats, however, even an isolated tornado is possible due to more shear and turning in the atmosphere with a warm front positioned in the area..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through New Haven Connecticut after Tropical Storm Watches were issued Wednesday Evening. In this area, tropical storm conditions are likely with sustained winds anywhere from 25-40 MPH and wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts to 60 MPH possible across South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. With recent wet conditions and these winds, scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in this area..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday in association with Tropical Storm Elsa for strong to damaging winds and even the potential for an isolated tornado or two in this area. There could also be another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a front after Elsa moves out of the area for later Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for all of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts up to 6″. With recent wet conditions, this additional rainfall could lead to widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and some flooding of rivers and streams in the watch area. This is likely the biggest impact of Tropical Storm Elsa on the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Thursday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding from the last 2 days of severe weather as well upcoming severe weather Thursday and Elsa’s impacts on Friday can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..
Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. In addition, a nocturnal line of strong thunderstorms briefly reached severe limits in Southeast Worcester and Western Norfolk Counties around 345-400 AM this morning,. The latest Local Storm Reports giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday Morning 7/8/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107081030.nwus51.html
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107080226.nwus51.html
NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html
Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org both for these past severe weather events as well as upcoming severe weather for Thursday and Elsa’s impacts for Thursday Night into Friday.
Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today focused on Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Some heating is possible this morning before the next atmospheric impulse along a stalled warm front will move through the region. Today will have better shear values as well as turning in the atmosphere with the warm front nearby but not as much instability due to somewhat cooler temperatures and some more cloud cover with the warm front in the area. Models favor portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut for strong to severe thunderstorms between 1-9 PM EDT today. Given the turning in the atmosphere, an isolated tornado or two is possible in this area and will bear close watching.
As we look ahead to the Thursday Night and Friday timeframe, Tropical Storm Elsa will impact our region. The headlines depict the current thinking with Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches posted as listed. Key factors include:
1.) Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track with 2-4″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 6″. With recent heavy rainfall from the past week, numerous pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are likely along with the potential for some river and stream flooding.
2.) Strong to damaging winds and the potential for severe weather exists along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system but with less rainfall in this area particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes in this area. If the storm center tracks 50 miles further east, heavier rain and less wind and severe weather potential exists while a track as forecasted or further west would allow for the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential in this area.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Thursday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM EDT Thursday Evening depending on severe weather operations for Thursday and time allowing for an update to account for any significant changes to the forecast. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html
Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents
Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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