Blizzard Coordination Message #4 – Late Friday Night 1/28/22-Saturday Night 1/29/22 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A major winter storm and blizzard will impact much of Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard and near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. Model consensus continues to firm for a high impact system to pound the region..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Boston and Eastern Norfolk County Mass, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts in this area and wind gusts 60-70 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts to hurricane force possible. There will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow and the potential for scattered pockets of tree and power line damage with scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in portions of Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Rhode Island, Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 15-19″ of snow with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Nantucket for 9-16″ of snow and wind gusts to 70 MPH likely and hurricane force wind gusts possible. These winds could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 7-15″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible in eastern areas of this warning and wind gusts to 45 MPH likely. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 5-7″ of snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH possible..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories and adjustments to some warnings could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences but the trend is clearly toward an impactful storm for almost the entire area. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the Blizzard and Winter Storm Warning areas..
..Minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Morning and particularly Saturday Evening high tide cycles are possible in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. This will be monitored as we get closer to this storm event..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system and an initial net schedule is posted below with an updated schedule posted in the last coordination message to be sent by 1000 PM Friday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions have trended closer to the coast for a major winter storm and blizzard for the region. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking with models coalescing on a solution a bit to the west even since last night’s update and increasing confidence in high-end to extreme snowfall totals in Eastern New England with higher snow totals in Western New England. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to central and eastern New England. Trends since the last coordination message have mostly shifted west even with the most easterly reliable model solution. This has created higher confidence in a very impactful storm for the region. Trends through the day will be monitored and will depict additional watches, possible warnings and advisories for various weather hazards from this system.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Most models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff affecting the current newly issued Winter Storm Watch area for the east slopes of the Berkshires. This has led to a higher confidence forecast for heavier snow in areas such as Hartford, Springfield and Worcester and now has extreme snowfall depicted for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
3.) There will be the potential for extreme snowfall rates of 4-5″ per hour in eastern portions of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Blizzard Warning area. This may allow for even higher totals than currently forecasted and will be monitored closely. Frequent spotter reports on snowfall will help determine the snowfall ranges in realtime as the storm hits.
4.) The strongest winds are currently timed between the two high tide cycles but minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are likely in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and if those winds shift to one of the high tide cycles it could increase the risk of greater coastal flooding at the time of high tides both Saturday morning and Saturday Evening with the northern coastal exposures of East Coastal Massachusetts at highest risk.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system and an initial net schedule is posted below with an updated schedule posted in the last coordination message to be sent by 1000 PM Friday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org.

Below is an approximate Amateur Radio Net Schedule and will be updated again Friday Evening, after these initial nets, net control will announce the next net to take place on the frequencies listed below:

600 AM: Cape Cod and Islands WX Net – 147.375-Falmouth Repeater PL: 110.9 Hz
700 AM: South Coast SKYWARN Net: 147.000-Dartmouth Repeater PL: 67.0 Hz
700 AM: Norfolk County SKYWARN Net: 146.895-Walpole Repeater PL: 123.0 Hz
715 AM: NB1RI RI SKYWARN Net: NB1RI linked repeater system
730 AM: Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Net – 146.790-Vernon, CT Repeater – PL: 82.5 Hz
730 AM: Western Mass Emergency Net – HF – serving Western and Eastern Mass and surrounding areas: 3944 KHz
800 AM: Cape and Islands SKYWARN Net – 146.955-Barnstable Repeater PL: 88.5 Hz

Other frequencies for nets to be scheduled and updated by the next coordination message:
147.180-Bridgewater Repeater
146.640-Waltham Repeater
145.230-Boston Repeater
MMRA Repeater Network
146.970-Paxton Repeater
146.940-Mount Tom Repeater

Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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