Storm Coordination Message #3 – Late Friday Night 1/28/22-Saturday Night 1/29/22 Major Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..A potential major winter storm will impact portions of Southern New England, particularly Eastern New England, late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard or near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. Model consensus has firmed up a bit today but still some uncertainties in the forecast for western areas and the potential for even more extreme snowfall accumulations than noted here..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Plymouth, Barnstable, Dukes and Nantucket Counties of Massachusetts from Late Saturday Night through Sunday Evening for 15-24″ of snow and isolated higher amounts with wind gusts up to 55 MPH in the interior and 65-70 MPH Gusts with isolated higher gusts in Coastal Southern New England. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages with the potential for numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages over parts of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts Late Friday Night through Saturday Evening for 8-17″ of snow with the highest amounts in the eastern portions of this Winter Storm Watch area with wind gusts of up to 40-45 MPH possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Hartford, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-9″ of snow and wind gusts up to 40 MPH possible..
..Additional Watches, Warnings and Advisories could be required in future updates depending on the model guidance. A shift in guidance as little as 50-100 miles east or west could have far reaching impacts on what the region experiences. The greatest confidence in significant impacts is in the current Winter Storm Watch areas but could shift into other parts of the region depending on the track and the western edge of the major storm envelope..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address email@example.com..
Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are still moving and have spread in the guidance and therefore we need to monitor closely the trends. The current forecast and headlines depict current thinking with models coalescing on a solution a bit to the west and increasing confidence in high-end to extreme snowfall totals in Eastern New England with higher snow totals in Western New England. Key factors include:
1.) The all important forecast track of this system is still in flux. All models forecast a very intense coastal storm but vary on the track and ensemble models which are a compilation of model outputs have a wider spread than normal and will be monitored. Deviation of 50-100 miles to the west means a greater area of our region gets impacted with significant snowfall and higher winds while a track further east could confine impacts to southeast coastal New England. Trends since the last coordination message have mostly shifted west except for one reliable model suite which shifted east. This creates more spread but removing the one model suite as an outlier means a general trend westward which is why Winter Storm Watches have been expanded north and west in the region. Trends through the day will be monitored and will depict additional watches, possible warnings and advisories for various weather hazards from this system.
2.) The western envelope of the system and how far back west the precipitation and wind shield gets. Some models bring this fairly significantly westward while other models show a sharper cutoff west of the current Winter Storm Watch areas. With the storm track shift mostly west by most models, this cutoff zone has also shifted further west which is why the Winter Storm Watch area has been expanded through the rest of Northern Connecticut and into Western Massachusetts along and east of the Connecticut River.
3.) Timing and strength of the strongest winds and how far west this extends which will determine wind damage impacts in Eastern New England and how far inland it reaches along with coastal flood impacts.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant storm system. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address firstname.lastname@example.org. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Snowfall Maps and Area Forecast Discussion:
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement & Snowfall Maps:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: email@example.com
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