Blizzard Coordination Message #5 – Late Friday Night 1/28/22-Saturday Night 1/29/22 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..A major winter storm and blizzard will impact much of Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night with heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard and near blizzard conditions for a portion of the region, extreme snowfall rates and thundersnow, strong to damaging winds in East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles particularly Saturday Evening but also Saturday Morning as well. Model consensus continues to firm for a high impact system to pound the region..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday for East Coastal Massachusetts including Boston and Eastern Norfolk County Mass, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts up to 30 inches in this area and wind gusts 60-70 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts to hurricane force possible. There will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow and the potential for scattered pockets of tree and power line damage with scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages in portions of Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties for 18-24″ with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts of up to 30 inches in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages in addition to considerable blowing and drifting snow..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Rhode Island, Western Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 15-19″ of snow with isolated higher amounts or a band of higher amounts to 24″ in this area and wind gusts to 60 MPH likely with isolated higher gusts possible. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages in addition to considerable blowing and drifting snow ..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Nantucket for 8-18″ of snow and wind gusts to 70 MPH likely and hurricane force wind gusts possible. These winds could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Northern Connecticut, Worcester, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire and Eastern Franklin Counties of Massachusetts for 7-15″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible in eastern areas of this warning and wind gusts to 45 MPH likely. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1200 AM Saturday to 1200 AM Sunday for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 5-8″ of snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH possible. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 AM Saturday to 12 AM Sunday for Western Franklin County Massachusetts for 4-6″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH possible..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of the Saturday Morning and Saturday Evening high tide cycles. Coastal flooding will be monitored closely in case those issues become higher than anticipated..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant blizzard/storm system and the final net schedule is posted below understanding change could happen as required pending storm conditions. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode..
..ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

Models are all showing a powerful coastal storm system will impact Southern New England late Friday Night into Saturday Night. Model solutions are pretty much locked into the current scenario and the current forecast and headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The all important forecast track of this system is fairly locked in at this point. Key areas of changes will be largely regarding how heavy the snows are on the western side of the system and where, if any, cutoff in precipitation will be.
2.) There will be the potential for extreme snowfall rates of 4-5″ per hour in eastern portions of the Winter Storm Warning area and in the Blizzard Warning area. This may allow for even higher totals than currently forecasted and will be monitored closely for where these heaviest snow bands line up in the Blizzard and possibly Winter Storm Warning areas. Frequent spotter reports on snowfall will help determine the snowfall ranges in realtime as the storm hits.
3.) The strongest winds are currently timed between the two high tide cycles but minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are likely in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and if those winds shift to one of the high tide cycles it could increase the risk of greater coastal flooding at the time of high tides both Saturday morning and Saturday Evening with the northern coastal exposures of East Coastal Massachusetts at highest risk. Coastal Flood Advisories are now posted for the Saturday Morning and Evening high tide cycles.

With all of the blowing and drifting snow expected with the blizzard and near blizzard conditions, we advise spotters to take additional measurements, as much as 10-20 and average them in an attempt to get the most accurate snow measurement possible. We appreciate all SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators support in making this happen.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Saturday and potentially Sunday Morning for this significant blizzard/storm system and the final net schedule is posted below understanding change could happen as required pending storm conditions. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. ARES/RACES Groups in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos of snowfall, wind damage and coastal flooding when the event unfolds can be sent as a reply to the message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org.

Below is the confirmed Amateur Radio Net Schedule for the first initial nets, net control will announce the next net to take place on the frequencies listed below but the next nets will likely be 2 hours after the ones listed and continue every 2 hours except increase to hourly updates when the snowfall rates increase 2″ per hour or more in a given area as needed:

600 AM: Cape Cod and Islands WX Net – 147.375-Falmouth Repeater PL: 110.9 Hz
630 AM: Western Mass Emergency Net – HF – serving Western and Eastern Mass and surrounding areas: 3944 KHz
645 AM: MMRA Repeater Network
700 AM: South Coast SKYWARN Net: 147.000-Dartmouth Repeater PL: 67.0 Hz
700 AM: Norfolk County SKYWARN Net: 146.895-Walpole Repeater PL: 123.0 Hz
700 AM: Worcester County SKYWARN Net: 146.970-Paxton Repeater PL: 114.8 Hz
700 AM: Western Mass SKYWARN VHF Net: 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater PL: 127.3 Hz
715 AM: Boston SKYWARN Net – 145.230 Boston Repeater PL: 88.5 Hz
715 AM: NB1RI RI SKYWARN Net: NB1RI linked repeater system
730 AM: Hartford-Tolland County SKYWARN Net – 146.790-Vernon, CT Repeater – PL: 82.5 Hz
730 AM: Metro Boston/Middlesex County SKYWARN Net: 146.640-Waltham Repeater – PL: 136.5 Hz
800 AM: Cape and Islands SKYWARN Net – 146.955-Barnstable Repeater PL: 88.5 Hz
800 AM: North Shore SKYWARN Net – 145.470-Danvers Repeater PL: 136.5 Hz
900 AM: Westford/PART – Northern Middlesex County SKYWARN Net – 146.955-Westford Repeater PL: 74.4 Hz
** – The Echolink *NEW-ENG3* Conference node: 9123/IRLP 9123 will be monitored throughout the duration the event. The 147.180-Bridgewater Repeater will be connected through that system and some of the nets listed above will be connected to for those repeaters that have Echolink and IRLP capability.
*** – Other repeaters may be monitored on an as needed basis based on Amateur Radio Operator availability.

Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall Maps, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CFW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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